EU Membership: Economic Benefits

Lucy Allan Excerpts

Wednesday 15th June 2016 Commons Chamber

[Tom Tugendhat]

The hon. Gentleman speaks well for his constituency, but the Member who represents Menai may talk about Menai Oysters and Mussels, which sells most of its catch to Europe and would probably wish to stay in the EU. Even in one industry, there is no single answer, and it is worth listening to the debate of the whole House and to all the people of this United Kingdom, rather than just one pressure group. Of course that does not mean that we have to wait to be ready. As I said earlier, we need to get ready.

The change in the stock market over the past few days has shown that Europe affects not only the fishing industry—for the better in some ways and for the worse in others—but investment in our entire island. Today, people are looking at us and wondering what the future holds.

[Lucy Allan (Telford) (Con)]

rose—

[Tom Tugendhat]

I wish to make some progress.

People are understandably concerned that the factors that led them to put money into our businesses may not last. The interconnected market, the skills base and the global trading agreements are not as permanent as they once thought; they are not even as permanent as they looked a few days ago. The implications and the consequences for us are very severe. Some have begun to doubt us, but they are wrong. Britain is a powerful and growing economy, and despite the undoubted hiatus that would follow a Brexit, we will recover. Indeed, for the markets, we will once again become a safe haven, but only by comparison with our neighbours. The implication that the Europe Union could disintegrate is worrying.

Let us be under no illusion as to why the option to leave the EU is bad for Britain. It is not, as some have sadly claimed, because Britain is too small. It is not because we cannot survive in a globalised world—it is clear that we are better connected and better integrated with the global economy than many other nations. No, it is because we are the economic leaders of a continent of more than 500 million people who are crying out for that very leadership and the very reforms that we offer.

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[Wes Streeting (Ilford North) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy) and to return to the topic of my maiden speech barely a year ago, as this country prepares to take what will undoubtedly be the biggest decision of our lifetime, which will determine the direction and destiny of our nation not just in the coming days, weeks, months and years but over the course of this century.

Global power is shifting from the western economies that dominated the 20th century to the emerging giants of the 21st century. Powers are pivoting away from nation states toward global corporations, and in that context the only question that should be on people’s minds as they cast their vote next week is which route and which choice will deliver prosperity, security and opportunity in a rapidly changing and globalised world.

Globalisation is an unstoppable process. It brings many possibilities and many opportunities for our constituents and for our country, and it also brings challenges. The question for any Government, whether our Government or Governments around the world, is how to shape globalisation to serve the best interests of their people, how to mitigate its challenges and how to make the most of the possibilities. How on earth can the right answer to those questions be to say, “Stop the world—I want to get off”? Has it not been striking in the course of this debate on the economy that there has been no debate about which is the best route to achieve what I have described?

Trying to get consensus among economists is like trying to get consensus among Labour MPs or Conservative MPs about the direction of their respective parties—virtually impossible—yet it has been achieved. The overwhelming consensus of our nation’s leading economists is that our country would be more prosperous inside the European Union than outside it. The Trades Union Congress and trade union leaders argue that being in the EU is in the best interests of working people and workers’ rights. Businesses small and large say that they can make the most of the opportunities available to them if we are a member of the European Union.

Well evidenced claims have been made about the impact of leaving the EU on jobs, investment and opportunities for our workforce, but what has been the response of the leave campaign? It can be summed up in the two words uttered by Nigel Farage last weekend when he was asked about the impact of a fall in sterling: so what? I would love to be in the privileged position of not worrying about what the state of the economy means for the financial security of me and my family or that of my constituents. The truth is that when sterling falls and jobs are lost, it will not be the wealthiest who are hit but the opportunities of the vast majority of people on low and middle incomes.

The members of the leave campaign seem to have largely left the Chamber. [Interruption.] They have sailed down the Thames. However, was it not striking that we heard the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) reinvent himself as an anti-austerity campaigner? We have also heard the right hon. Member for Surrey Heath (Michael Gove) claiming to be the saviour of the NHS, repeating the untruth that £350 million a week will be saved and invested in the NHS if we leave.

It is not often that I turn to our former Prime Minister, Sir John Major, for words of wisdom and encouragement about the direction of our national health service, but did he not have it right when he pointed out how preposterous it is to believe that the hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson), the right hon. Member for Surrey Heath and their friends have the best interests of the NHS at heart? Even a former Conservative Prime Minister says that we cannot trust those on the right wing of the Conservative party and their fellow travellers in UKIP with the future of our national health service, so why should we believe them?

On economic forecasts, there can be no certainty, only analysis and assumption. In picking figures, we should trust the judgment of every leading economic voice, every university leader, the leaders of our trade union movement, the leaders of our businesses, and our leaders from across the political spectrum. They have come together because they believe remaining in the EU to be in our national interest.

[Lucy Allan]

Does the hon. Gentleman also think that we should trust the voice of the people?

[Wes Streeting]

I absolutely do. I voted to give the people a choice, and I will abide by their decision next week.

I say directly to my constituents that they have an enormous responsibility resting on their shoulders. Every day since I was elected to Parliament last year—on a slim majority and against the odds—I have said that I will put their interests first. They may not always agree with me, but they will always know where I stand. Every day, in every vote, the only question in my mind is, what is best for my constituency and my country? Now, my constituents face that choice in a vote that is more important than any that Members of Parliament will take part in during this Session.

Where does our country’s future lie? Leading Europe or leaving Europe? As far as I am concerned, there is only one answer to that question if people want a future for our country that provides economic security, national security and the ability to take on the big issues and global challenges facing us in this century. That is why I urge my constituents to make the progressive, the pragmatic and the patriotic choice to remain in the European Union.

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[Lucy Allan (Telford) (Con)]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker, for calling me to speak in this very important debate. I have listened with great interest to the many excellent speeches that have been made.

There is an increasingly healthy trend of Members from all parties coming to this place having had a career outside of politics and life experience that they can bring to our debates. During the year in which I have had the honour to represent Telford, I have seen many fine examples of our debates being informed by that experience and expertise.

I am a chartered accountant. Before coming to this place, I specialised in the financial sector, specifically in investment in financial markets. I want to draw on that experience and bring it to the debate. Over the months, the debate on the EU has, naturally, been characterised by passion on both sides. That has led to increasingly impossible claims and predictions, which have seemed to the outside world, on occasion, alarmist and fanciful. I want to put on record some of the more moderate and balanced perspectives of investors who, because they earn their living generating investment returns for clients, truly understand the meaning of the word risk. We have heard that word repeatedly today and on other occasions. Investors are motivated to put economic considerations before any others.

I am sure that Members present who have an interest in economics will be familiar with the outstanding reputation of Neil Woodford, an investor in UK business. The Woodford report, which was published earlier this year, provides a balanced commentary on the economic impact of Brexit. I encourage those who genuinely harbour fears about a post-Brexit economy to read that report. In case they do not have the chance to do so, its main conclusions are: first, that the most extreme claims about the costs and benefits of Brexit are wide of the mark and not evidence-based; secondly, that a more tailored immigration approach, the freedom to make trade deals with global trading partners, moderately lower levels of regulation and savings to the public purse, although they will not be huge, will have some positive net benefits; and, thirdly, that the most plausible outcome from Brexit will be a modest positive impact on jobs and growth. Neil Woodford states:

“We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union.”

We have a Conservative Government to thank for that.

Neil Woodford is in good company. Richard Sharp, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee who has more than 30 years’ experience in finance and who is in constant contact with major international investors in UK businesses, said in evidence to the Treasury Committee:

“The UK is a thoroughly investable economy and it would remain a thoroughly investable economy whichever way the vote goes”.

The tone of those professional investors is a welcome relief from the sound and fury that political campaigns inevitably generate—although the debate today has been moderate and considered.

From my experience in the financial sector, and after listening to investors and advisers, I believe that when we look back in the not-too-distant future at GDP, employment rates, the FTSE 100 index and inflation, it will be difficult to identify when exactly Brexit occurred. The FTSE 100 is up £17 billion today; I think that some people may not have been following the markets. I want to reassure the House that despite what is said by the ardent campaigners, whose will to win I fully understand, we can sleep easy in our beds on June 24 because the economy will remain strong either way.

We have heard a great deal from the establishment, the elites and bureaucrats, and all those who benefit from the EU, but they are not talking the language of my constituents in Telford. They are not listening to the millions of ordinary people across Britain whose everyday lives are most affected by our membership. Many people in Telford are affected by increasing pressure on public services, by the difficulty of getting a school place and by waiting times to see their GP. The less well-off are the most exposed to the day-to-day reality of our membership of the EU.

We in this place have said enough. Now it is time for the British people to have a say. They want to be free—free to decide who comes to our country, free to make our own laws and free to trade with the rest of the world. On Thursday, I know that the people of Telford will trust their hearts and their instincts and vote for Britain’s future.