China: Air Defence Identification Zone

Lord Wilson of Tillyorn Excerpts

Thursday 16th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Wilson of Tillyorn (CB)]

My Lords, it is very useful that the noble Lord, Lord Moynihan, has drawn attention to this issue, including all the complexities that lie behind it and all the dangers that may lie ahead. In a timed debate in your Lordships’ House, it is rather strange to find oneself allocated a longish period of time in which to speak and, with permission, I hope not to use all that time. Perhaps I may use this issue to draw out some rather broader lessons. The noble Lord, Lord Moynihan, referred to all the disputes that have occurred over many years in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, particularly the latter with, for years, Chinese maps drawing a line right round the outer edges of the South China Sea, so creating disputed territory with Vietnam, with the Philippines, with Malaysia and in a very small way with Burma.

A striking point about that long period of dispute is that, despite clashes and indeed some loss of life, there have been no major conflicts. Many years ago, noble Lords may remember that there was a very acute dispute over two islands just off the coast of mainland China: Quemoy or Kinmen and Matsu. They may also remember that, for some 20 years after the crisis had passed, there was a tacit agreement between the two sides that shells, most of which contained propaganda leaflets, would be fired only on odd days of the week, and on even days of the week no shells would be fired and they could carry out their agricultural activities. The key to that was that it was a play, a Peking opera, in which everyone knew the script, and that avoided the danger.

Much more recently we have had the phenomenon of China’s growing military and naval power. I suggest that some of that is going in a helpful direction. I cite the Chinese involvement in the Gulf of Aden, which is a very interesting development in the anti-piracy campaigns off the coast of Somaliland, or China’s involvement with the United Nations peacekeeping operations, or humanitarian assistance. All of that has been very valuable. However, it is difficult to try to incorporate that into the existing world order.

It is very clear, as mentioned by both noble Lords who have spoken, that China is now a very rapidly growing economic power—indeed, far more rapidly growing economically than militarily. As the noble Lord, Lord Moynihan, said, a shifting of the tectonic plates is going on and there is nothing more dangerous in history than a shifting of the plates, when an unsatisfied power or a power that feels that is has lost out over the past hundred years reasserts itself and comes into conflict with the then existing world order. Many of the arrangements in the existing world order, of course, pre-date the time when China re-emerged onto the international stage. It was a time when China was inward looking. It may be that we need to be aware of this, and sometimes make adjustments in these international arrangements, to incorporate the present power of China and encourage it to play a major but, if possible, benevolent role in world affairs. That may require a hard effort.

I mentioned Quemoy and Matsu, and the almost “Peking opera” arrangement whereby you fired on one day but not the next. The danger is that now people will not necessarily know the script. They did then, but if they do not know it now, the dangers are very great. It is therefore important for us to build up the interrelationships we have with China in strategic and military affairs, both diplomatically and between armed forces. Of course, it is the Americans who will play the major part in that, but we, too, can play a role, and I hope we will hear from the Minister that we are playing a role in that area, which will be an important element in how future crises are handled.

For ourselves, we cannot pretend that we are major players. The United States is the major player and will go on being the major player. Equally, we cannot shut our eyes to what is happening and to the potential dangers. What we can do—again, I hope that the Minister can confirm what we are doing—is build up our connections with China. I am thinking not just of commercial connections but of the way in which young people go for education from China to here—and, equally, from here to China. Thus can long-term relationships be built. I am also thinking of the building up of things such as the Chinese legal system, which that country is working hard on and with which we can help in various ways.

In ways such as those, although we may not be one of the major players, we can sensibly help prevent relatively small disputes developing into serious and dangerous conflicts.