Middle East and North Africa

Lord Trimble Excerpts

Friday 11th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Trimble]

My Lords, I am delighted to follow the noble Lord, who I think will now be known as the last British imperialist, as he revealed to us. He also, rightly, drew our attention to the existence of other empires in the region. Indeed, one of the underlying factors in the Middle East—it is low-level but significant —is the competition between three of the successor states of former empires Iran, Turkey and Egypt as to who is to be hegemonic within the region. I do not wish to develop that theme, but just mention it.

I find myself in agreement with the comments of my noble friend Lord Howell and the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, on Egypt. As they said, events are unfolding and we should be cautious in our approach to them. There is a tendency in things like this to think of the worst possible contingencies, but we should caution ourselves against assuming that they necessarily will occur. I know that there has been significant loss of life in Egypt over the recent period but we should draw some comfort from the way in which the demonstrators and the army have conducted themselves, which shows that a degree of restraint is being exercised. One hopes that that will continue to be the case because one must always bear in mind that it can be guaranteed that a resort to violence will make things worse. We hope that that will not occur.

There are other reasons for thinking that the measured responses that we have seen will be a factor in the future. I remember being told some time ago that, at the election before last in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood deliberately did not put up enough candidates to win. It succeeded, but it made sure that there was no chance of winning the election because it was all too conscious of the example of Algeria, where the victory of an Islamist party resulted in a military coup. It did not want that in Egypt, and I hope it still does not want that. It is clear from the virtually public debate within the Muslim Brotherhood that elements within it do not want a theocratic state. Therefore, we can see a desire with that party to avoid the two bad examples in the recent past in the “revolutions” in Iran and Algeria.

Rather than develop those general thoughts, I shall focus on one recent development relating to a point that all the preceding speeches have touched on; namely, the talks and relationships between Israel and Palestine. Here I draw attention to my interests which are set out in the Register of Lords’ Interests. I have no intention of discussing those matters at this point, so people can relax. My starting point may seem slightly frivolous, but it is not. It is the Palestinian papers revealed by Al-Jazeera and the Guardian a week or two ago with tremendous publicity. They have already been mentioned. I have to focus on the Guardian because I have not seen Al-Jazeera and I do not know exactly how it presented them, but I know how they were presented by the Guardian. It was a matter of shock and horror that the Palestinian Authority betrayed its people in the discussions between the Israelis and the Palestinians in which it was assumed that major settlement blocks in the vicinity of Jerusalem would be part of the future Israeli state. The reaction of the Guardian was to say that it was a disgrace.

My reaction was, “What?”. Everybody knows that that is the position. Anyone who has followed this matter closely over the years will know that although the Camp David talks did not reach agreement, considerable progress was made and the basic principle they operated on with regard to determining the boundary between Israel and Palestine was that areas occupied by Jews would be part of Israel and areas occupied by Arabs would be part of the Palestinian state. That was a general principle that could obviously not be applied to every small, isolated settlement and worked well only for areas that were contiguous to the green line. Even on that, there would be matters of interpretation, but there was still agreement on the general principle. At the end of those talks, it was possible for President Clinton to make an offer. It has not been published. Indeed, according to Dennis Ross, it was never actually written down, but President Clinton made an offer that was effectively a line. Since then, I do not think the discussions have moved significantly from that point.

That is why I was surprised that the Guardian was surprised because even if it had not looked at Camp David, and if it had looked at the map that Ehud Olmert published after the talks he was engaged in regarding the Palestinians, it would have seen the same factor. It should not have been a surprise. The principle that would apply to the modern suburbs of Jerusalem just the other side of the green line applies equally well to East Jerusalem, which would be part of the Palestinian state. Indeed, the Palestinians quite understandably wish to see their capital in that area.

Jewish commentators also reacted negatively to the Palestinian papers, particularly on the issue of dividing Jerusalem. They said that the Camp David talks had not been settled and that there were other problems that should be addressed. One person pointed particularly to security and the need for Israel to retain positions along the River Jordan to assure them of security. Again my reaction was, “What’s he worried about? Does he seriously think that the Jordanian army is going to invade across the Jordan again?”. It is again a mistake to give too much attention to security without realising that the best security for Israel will come from a friendly and strong Palestinian state. I remember having a conversation a number of years ago with a very senior person in Israel who said that people complain that the Palestinian Authority is not effective in security in the areas under its control, but it cannot be effective because it needs to have an army and it has not got one. I hope the Israelis bear that in mind in these discussions. They need to see an effective Palestinian Government because they will not have security without one.

I do not wish to belabour these points, but I come back to my earlier point about the outrage over the leaks. I wonder why there was this outrage. It should not have been there if people were properly informed. Were they informed? I do not know. I think the outrage had a purpose, and I suspect it was to undermine the concept of a two-state solution. There are those who seem to think that the solution is a one-state solution and that, if there is one state between the Mediterranean and the Jordan, it will then be impossible for the Israeli Government to deny full civic rights to the Arabs, which would create a state that would not be Jewish and might even eventually have an Arab majority. That might be the objective. If that is the line behind the outrage, it is a delusion to think that that will happen. I do not think the talks on the two-state solution have failed and would not write them off. Although they may take a long time, and have already taken a long time, one should not despair of them. If they did fail, one of the options for the Israelis would be a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank and Judea. The problem with that is that they would probably withdraw back to the barrier and leave Arab areas of East Jerusalem and other areas on the wrong side of the barrier, if only to have some negotiating cards for the future. That is not something we should want. Indeed, I note that some may see a convergence of that option with the thought of some in the Palestinian Authority that it might be to their advantage unilaterally to declare an independent state. These unilateral actions by either side would not be helpful. It is much better to persevere at the talks. They have been going on for a long time. I do not intend to refer to our experience in Northern Ireland, other than to say, as I have said before on another occasion, I remember a friend saying to me in 1973 that it was perfectly obvious what the outcome was going to be. He sketched it quite accurately, and it only took us a further 25 years to get there, but I do not normally like going back to issues from that.

My basic point is that one should persevere with the two-state solution. It is the only one. One could draw some encouragement from the late Palestinian papers because it shows that on the practical issues—namely, drawing lines and all the rest of it—there is not that much difference. The real difference is that there is not yet willingness on both sides to sign off and to make an agreement. It was the same problem at the end of Camp David. There was a deal, which was, in the view of those who put it forward, a good deal. But Arafat turned it down even when, we were led to believe, a majority of his negotiators wanted him to agree to it. He was not prepared to take that step. Far too many people are not prepared to take that step.

Perhaps the noble Baroness opposite and noble Lords will forgive me for the observation that, yes, the concept of the coalition Government in Israel and the way in which they operate is a problem. If anyone should be ready or even prepared to make an agreement, it makes it very difficult for them to do that. That structural problem in the Israeli Government goes back to something which many people in this House advocate; namely, proportional representation. That is a serious point, which I hope will be taken on board by those who advocate PR. It has a downside and if you go to Israel you can see it, perhaps in a slightly extreme form.

We hope that we will see positive developments in Egypt and that there will be a spur to positive developments elsewhere, by which I mean movement towards a more democratic and a freer state. I am very glad to hear all the things that the noble Baroness said about Tunisia and what it is doing, because democracy is more than just an election. There are a whole host of things. From a point of view of the well-being of the people of the Middle East, the bedrock or starting point should be the rule of law. Without it or without it fully understood all the rest will not work properly.