China: Air Defence Identification Zone

Lord Triesman Excerpts

Thursday 16th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Triesman (Lab)]

My Lords, I join others in thanking the noble Lord, Lord Moynihan. Before I say anything else, I want to say how much I appreciated the overview provided by the noble Lord, Lord Wilson of Tillyorn, which was obviously drawn from huge experience. When we talk about China and this region, it is important to get a sense of the breadth of history, and I appreciated that.

This is a helpful opportunity to debate what may be a very significant issue for regional and world stability in the area or what may be slightly less harmful than that—unhelpful posturing on the part of a number of regional players. What it certainly does do is raise the question of how these matters are being played out, as the Asian century kicks off, and the importance of the United States in trying to deal with those strategic changes.

Any review of the maps—and I have tried—shows the complexity of the overlapping air defence identification zones around Japan and in the East China Sea. China, as we have acknowledged, is in no sense the first. Half of the area of China’s new zone overlaps with the Japanese zone in the East China Sea, and that zone was introduced shortly after World War II during the United States occupation. It overlaps to a smaller extent with the South Korean and Taiwanese zones. The South Korean zone was created as long ago as 1951. All of the zones impose some requirements, although it is plain that the Chinese initiative goes far wider than the requirements that are seen in other zones.

Since 1950, there has been, as the Chinese Government are reasonable in pointing out, a joint United States and Canadian zone, but it is also true that the United States does not apply its procedures to any foreign aircraft that have no intention of entering its airspace. That is a big difference, and the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, was quite right to remind us of that and of the absence of consultation. The United States on this basis does not accept the right of any coastal nation to apply ADIZ procedures to any foreign aircraft not intending to enter that airspace, and nor do we.

There is an overlap and there are competing zones with different procedures. That would be confusing and risky enough, but the issue is made much more confusing by the fact that some others, including Russia and China, do not recognise the Japanese zone at all. Historically, the Japanese have unilaterally on occasions increased their zone.

Given the volume of commercial airline flights and multiple routes—a factor that accompanies the growth of the economies in the region—the confusion and risk are considerably multiplied by any attempt to act on the zone procedures rather than, as I suspect may be the case, to use them as popular and populist rhetoric. Of course, the problem with populist rhetoric is precisely that it is popular. Consequently, each movement of aircraft or ships, in particular of military vehicles, ignites a popular demand for action to see off those insulting national prestige.

This is a climate in which the protagonists tend to test one another’s resolve. As soon as China announced its air defence zone in November, the United States, as we know, sent military assets through the zone. Chinese fighter jets shadowed the military aircraft and vessels shadowed vessels patrolling in the disputed waters. Japan’s leading newspaper reported that the Chinese intention is to expand their zone further until it gets more or less to the Japanese shore. There are close passes of shipping and there are fighters shadowing other fighters and bombers.

My difficulty in understanding what these regional neighbours see as the advantage in the increasingly bellicose language is that, if it is essentially rhetoric, all it does is destabilise the region without any obvious sensible purpose. Still less easy is it to understand the benefit of close brushes of a military kind, and there is no conceivable benefit in threatening to interfere with normal air traffic.

I take some marginal comfort from the fact that those threatening each other tend to be very disciplined nations with highly disciplined forces. They are probably not too liable to have accidents, but the issue must still be important enough for the international institutions to try to lower the temperature. Efforts in this direction are very important. There is too much at risk in destabilising the whole of Asia, which is otherwise stable in many respects. The region is productive and is overcoming poverty in many countries, aside from under the barbaric regime in North Korea. However, there are a number of instabilities at a top level. India and China are not in the most productive phase of their relationship and, as has been mentioned, the same is true of Japan and China.

Those are dangers where I think we could have an impact. I venture to suggest cautiously that there may be things we could do to help, even if the United Kingdom’s influence is, in a general sense, relatively small. First, all the nations in the region need to moderate their language. I was looking at some of the language of the Japanese defence Minister, Onodera, which is not conducive to the likelihood of people talking to each other in more moderate terms. They also need to start to ratchet down the nationalistic, somewhat paranoid, descriptions of what is happening, which have a big impact on populations. All parties are showing renewed nationalism and there is a very strong case for seeing whether we, who have considerable experience in this area, might be able to assist in developing a hotline which would allow those who may come into conflict in those areas—particularly at sea—to deal with it. I can say at first hand that we took up this issue, as a nation, in the upper Persian Gulf. In a sense, that is obvious and mechanical, but it is entirely practical.

Secondly, would it not be sensible if the critique of China, which is very clear and has been expressed by most nations in the region, were thought through in a little more detail? It is as if China were completely unique. The Chinese may have gone further on declared procedures, but they are entitled to ask why they are the only people with zones of this kind about which any questions are asked at all. We should ask whether that is likely to be productive. The noble Lord, Lord Moynihan is quite right to emphasise the differences this time, but there are wider histories and wider issues in which we might have a moderating effect.

Thirdly, all nations in the region must think more deeply about the offence caused by some of their leaders, particularly the genuinely distressing actions of the Japanese Prime Minister. It is distressing to see any Prime Minister visiting, honouring and sharing the history of notorious war criminals who perpetrated terrible crimes against the Chinese people. Were there to be an equivalent event in Europe, there would be an outcry. It would not be tolerated. The noble Lord, Lord Teverson, is 100% correct that it is right to raise this issue with friends in Japan, precisely because they are friends. I will put down for the record that, before he left, my noble friend Lord West told me that the Sixth Fleet has in fact vanished but only because it is now the Seventh Fleet.

Fourthly, we all know that this crisis and chronic dispute about a group of islands claimed by at least three nations needs to be dealt with. These uninhabited, uninhabitable rocks, known by different names in each of the three countries, are the prizes in this dispute. Perhaps this is because everybody understands they may anchor rights to gas, oil and fishery resources. China’s interest has plainly been awakened by the possibility of these assets coming into play.

Would the Minister consider whether the United Kingdom can offer a contribution here, even at the risk of potential rejection? The noble Lord, Lord Wilson, helpfully identified some things we could do, as did the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, with whom I strongly agree.

A couple of our universities—this may be of particular interest to the noble Lord, Lord Wilson, because I am going to talk about Cambridge—specialise in the legal analysis of and recommendations for borders and lines of demarcation. They have a remarkable history. I first saw this work at first hand in difficult circumstances in Africa, and I acknowledge that not all of the issues that were raised have yet been concluded, but we and, for that matter, Cambridge University have no interest in sovereignty issues and we have no axes to grind in the area. There is therefore a real possibility of soft diplomacy being employed in that kind of circumstance.

I think that we could offer to get into exercises which, while of course they would not lead to commitments to the United Nations on the part of those countries in accepting the results, could result in tensions being reduced when efforts were made. The breathing space is almost always welcomed at the United Nations because it allows for the exploration of many alternatives, and studies are usually valuable and instructive for whatever the final outcomes may be. I believe that that is a useful sort of soft power. It does give rise to diffusion, and even were it to be rejected, it would be seen as a sincere and serious offer in the region.

An impartial offer will carry the message that events in the East China Sea and the regional security issues matter enough to us, half a world away, for us to take a practical interest. I hope that our Government will do so.