Energy Bill

Lord Stern of Brentford Excerpts

Monday 4th November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Jenkin of Roding]

My Lords, if no one else wants to stand up at this stage, perhaps I may just say a few words. I have found this a very difficult question. I have received a good deal of representations in favour of my noble friend’s amendment, and others sounding a warning note. I have said to them all that I will want to listen to the full debate, particularly to what my noble friend on the Front Bench has to say.

As I see it—I may be wrong, and I am open to be corrected—the Government face something of a dilemma. The noble Lord, Lord Teverson, quoted the figures on the existing volume of coal-fired electricity generation in this country. I think he said that it is now about 44%, despite the significant closures of some of our biggest coal-fired power stations which have taken place in the past 12 months. The Government clearly recognise that there must be no power cuts and that the impact of such cuts on the country’s business and, indeed, on the Government’s reputation would be quite devastating. Therefore, as the Prime Minister said to me and a number of my noble friends back in July, there must be no power cuts and we will have to do whatever we have to do to make sure that we keep the lights on. As the Minister who presided over the three-day week back in 1974 I have every sympathy with that, because it is not a comfortable position for any Government or Minister to be in. That is the first priority of which the Government have to take account.

On the other hand, if the Government want to make it possible for coal-fired power stations to continue, there will be a severe impact on the incentive to build new power stations. The gas-fired power stations have much lower emissions; a modern station may have as little as one-third the emissions of a coal-fired station. Given that we have spent a lot of time during our consideration of the Bill discussing the need for a proper financial structure for the new generators, many of which would want to build gas-fired stations, one can see the Government’s dilemma. I am not entirely sure that I can see the matter as clearly as my noble friend Lord Teverson has, and I will want to hear the argument.

I, too, have a copy of the Daily Telegraph article. My noble friend left out rather a significant sentence and was very kind to my noble friend on the Front Bench. The article said that the problem was due to the Government’s “dithering”. We have heard a certain amount about that—it is what the Telegraph said and what my noble friend left out. As has been said many times, there is no doubt that there is a considerable hiatus in the investment in new generating capacity, a consequence of which has been the oft-repeated and increasingly serious Ofgem warnings about the narrowing of the margin between capacity and demand. The Government, therefore, simply cannot go on risking that hiatus. So what is to be done?

I have read an interesting report in a paper that was prepared for the European Climate Foundation by Simon Skillings of Trilemma UK. I found it a helpful analysis of the whole problem. One of the things that Mr Skillings said—and I am following some of the argument of my noble friend—is that:

“Perversely, the decision of large amounts of coal-fired generation to opt-in to the IED”—

the European directive—

“presents a greater threat to security of supply. This is because opted-in coal plant would be able to operate at higher load factors, presenting a significant risk to investors in new gas-fired plant and owners of existing gas-fired plant that may currently be mothballed”.

I have drawn attention, both on Second Reading and subsequently in Committee, to the substantial amount of gas-fired plant which is currently being mothballed, and which would take varying lengths of time to bring back into production. Mr Skillings continues:

“New plant is, therefore, less likely to be built, and mothballed plant is more likely to be closed, under these circumstances”.

That seems a considerable dilemma. I have to confess, having studied both sides of the argument and tried to understand all the evidence, that I am still unclear as to what is the right course.

As I said at the beginning of my speech, I have been replying to those who have been making representations to me about this group of amendments by saying, “I will want to listen to both sides of the argument before finally making up my mind”. I do not know whether my noble friend will want to press the amendment to a Division; we shall have to wait and see. Other noble Lords who have signed other amendments in this group may wish to come in and I will listen to them with equal attention. However, I find this a difficult dilemma. We have got existing coal power stations, they are producing energy and they are helping to close the gap between demand and capacity. Therefore, to countenance a significant reduction from that source and assume that it will be made up with generating capacity by new investment seems to be taking a considerable risk.

My noble friend has advisers who follow this a great deal more closely than I can, and I shall be interested to hear what she has to say. I have to confess that, for me, it is a difficult issue.

[Lord Stern of Brentford (CB)]

Coal is the dirtiest of fuels: it emits around twice as much carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour as gas; it is responsible for more than 40% of world energy greenhouse gas emissions, and for more than 25% of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Amendment 74 will encourage the switch from coal to gas; delaying that switch could substantially increase the cost of meeting our climate change targets. Gas itself has emissions which, if unabated, are far too high for the medium or longer term but may provide a useful bridge in the shorter to medium term—that is, until around 2030 or so. After that, gas or coal would have to be abated or replaced with renewables or nuclear if we are to meet our targets. Unless the world acts to phase out or abate via carbon capture and storage, in the next few decades coal will be very likely to take the world into very dangerous levels of greenhouse gas concentrations.

If we could be confident of a strong carbon price then Amendment 74 might not be necessary. That would be a clear way of addressing the colossal market failure associated with greenhouse gas emissions. Such a strong carbon price would likely make renewables and nuclear more than competitive with gas and coal in the next one or two decades. However, with apparent quarrelling within the Government, and possible backtracking and “reviewing” constantly in the air, who could be confident about such a strong carbon price?

Work as an academic economist, as chief economist of the EBRD, as chief economist of the World Bank and as head of the Government Economic Service in the UK has made it clear to me that government-induced policy risk is a major deterrent—perhaps the major deterrent—to investment around the world. That is indeed why energy investment in the UK has been so inhibited and it is why we need the clarity that this amendment brings. Clarity can unleash investment; confusion, on the other hand, risks both the lights going out and a world of dangerous climate change.

The Government have been working towards a clearer strategy in the Bill, and many, including me, welcome that, but they have allowed uncertainty and vacillation to creep back in. This amendment would go far to overcome the doubts on policy that the Government themselves have created. It would essentially drive out unabated coal from the UK by 2030 other than in a back-up role. That is exactly what we have to do to achieve our targets and to make our contribution. How can we ask others to stop treating the atmosphere as a dump if we are not prepared to move strongly to do so ourselves?

China, where I have been working for 25 years, India, where I have been working for 40 years, and many other countries look to Europe and the US for leadership. If we do not show that leadership, they will conclude that the rich world is not serious on this subject. Let us recognise that China—the largest economy in the developing world and the biggest emitter in the world—is changing. Targets in the 12th five-year plan were strong. A peak in emissions in 2025 is now being discussed in relation to the 13th five-year plan. I have been involved in a number of those discussions and, before now, dates earlier than 2030 have not been mentioned. In addition, a peak in coal consumption in China within a decade is under open discussion. However, China is looking at others, including us. We should not delude ourselves that because we are small our example does not count.

By accepting the amendment, we can provide the clarity that will unleash investment, reduce our emissions, manage effectively the costs of so doing and have a real influence on others. That is why I support Amendment 74 in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Teverson.