UK Strategy Towards the Arctic (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Soames of Fletching Excerpts

Thursday 9th January 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Soames of Fletching (Con)]

My Lords, I feel honoured and privileged to sit on the International Relations and Defence Committee. I am privileged to have sat under the enlightened and skilful chairmanship of my noble friend Lord Ashton of Hyde, from whom I have learned a great deal. It is now a pleasure to sit under the chairmanship of my noble friend Lord De Mauley. I join in acknowledging the exceptional work of the committee’s staff, who are brilliant, patient and a genuine pleasure to work with.

Having said all that, my noble friend and others have shot all my foxes, so I will make only a few points. Before I do, let me say how much I agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, about the RFA, and with my noble friend Lord Willets about the importance of the space agency.

I will put into context again the matter already expressed by my noble friends and many others: that parts of Scotland are closer to the Arctic than they are to London. Therefore, this is a region in which we must of necessity take a profound and carefully worked through interest, since as my noble friend said, developments in the region have a significant impact on our national, environmental and energy security, and have very serious implications for our foreign and defence policy.

We argued in the report that it was highly unlikely that the United Kingdom’s long-term goal to return the Arctic to a state of low tension was achievable. We concluded that the United Kingdom policy had to reflect the new reality that the region was becoming an area of competition and potential confrontation. Indeed, we were being pretty restrained in what we said. I believe that it is likely that the Arctic is going to become a fulcrum of increasing contention, especially in the grey zone of operations.

The fact remains that Russia already exercises a significant, malign and growing threat, including GPS jamming, military exercises which simulate attacks on its neighbours, maritime sabotage, cyberattacks and information warfare. In the report, we call for the United Kingdom Government and their allies to prepare, with urgency, contingency plans to detect, deter and respond—and let me say how strongly I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard.

Because of the nature of the theatre, we assess that close co-operation between the state and the private sector, which already operates most of the subsea cables and pipelines, is key, and that the Government need to establish partnerships with businesses to combat threats to critical infrastructure—I know my noble friend Lord De Mauley made this plain in his speech. Frankly, we need to do much the same at home.

In contemplating these threats, we were concerned that in this theatre, as in all the others in which we have an interest, our country has insufficient key military assets, including submarines and maritime patrol or airborne early-warning aircraft to support the new realities of the Arctic. Of the first importance would be that we should continue to train sufficiently and regularly with our NATO and magnificent Nordic allies, an operation now made less easy by the ill-advised removal of the two commando carriers from service.

My noble friend has dealt thoroughly with the problem of China’s activities in the Arctic. I would emphasise that these are increasing, but they are only possible thanks to Russia’s facilitation. Indeed, a commercially viable shipping route along Russia’s Arctic coast could soon become a reality, which would be economically beneficial for both Moscow and Beijing. Beijing will clearly seek to ensure that the northern sea route remains free of western interference through its co-operation with Russia.

I think that two developments are possible. If tensions between Russia and the West remain high, due in particular to the ongoing war in Ukraine, it is likely in my judgment that Russia’s joint ventures with China in the Artic, by China, will expand dramatically. If the Trump Administration encourage Ukraine to cede land to Russia and continue to interfere with Greenland, as they say they are going to, and return confiscated Russian assets, then perhaps American and European companies would begin to engage with Russian Arctic projects again, although this of course will take time.

In conclusion, as the report spells out very well, the Arctic holds the most extraordinary abundance of natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals and fish, with its untapped oil and gas reserves estimated to comprise about 25% of the world’s undiscovered resources. The British Government need to maintain the highest degree of alertness possible as these developments play out. It is likely we will see this pristine wilderness turn into something quite different.