Middle East: Recent Developments

Lord Risby Excerpts

Friday 13th July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Risby]

My Lords, during the previous Parliament my right honourable friend William Hague, in his capacity as Shadow Foreign Secretary, exhorted all parliamentarians to get to know the Middle East as the crucible of so many of the world’s problems and to re-establish our relationships following the Iraq war.

In the case of my own party, the Conservative Middle East Council became very active with parliamentarians right across all the political divide and political groupings, often coming to very similar conclusions. I praise the activities of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy in the region over many years. Nobody then could have forecast the dramatic events that subsequently unfolded and I pay tribute to the Foreign Secretary, to Alistair Burt, the Minister for the Middle East and indeed, to my noble friend the Minister for the energy and commitment they have shown in trying to engage fully with the huge issues in the troubled region of the Middle East.

During a number of visits to Egypt, initially under the auspices of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy to meet parliamentarians of all colours, it became obvious to us that social tensions were extremely high but, of course, we did not know exactly when there might be manifestations of this and the eruptions that then followed. Egypt had liberalised its economy and was enjoying steady economic growth but rampant corruption and huge inequality were fraying the fabric of social cohesion. It is far too early to know whether political and social stability will take root but all the political figures that I have met, whether they are secular liberals, from the Muslim Brotherhood or Salafists, know that unless the economy revives there may be further future eruptions and unknown elements arising out of this. It seems to me that the mother country of the Arab world, preoccupied with its domestic challenges, is most unlikely to take on the leadership role in the Arab world for the foreseeable future.

The demography of the region presents a massive challenge to successful governance. In Egypt 57% of the population is under the age of 25 and that includes 37% under the age of 15. Similar weightings exist right across the Arab world, including countries such as Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with all the demands on employment, health and education. If the so-called Arab spring does not successfully deal with these demographic time bombs, a pattern of social tension, potentially explosive, will simply reignite.

We have seen elections in troubled countries such as Iraq, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, but in nine years of being a governor of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy and doing political work in the Middle East and Africa, I learnt that elections alone will not mean that democracy can be declared without adequate structures of civil society, independence of the press and the judiciary, and the protection of minorities and women’s participation. In 2000 President Hafez al-Assad died and I joined the late Robin Cook to meet the new President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus at the time of his father’s funeral. I had visited Syria just after leaving university and made some enduring friendships then. It is now worth recalling the hopes that the new young president brought with him into office, not least because history has shown us that the problems of the region cannot be resolved without Syrian involvement. I was asked to be a founder director of the British Syrian Society and we tried to work with our diplomats to establish influence and contact with them. While there was economic liberalisation, political change did not ever take place and when children were killed in Dara simply for writing graffiti on a wall I instantly resigned and I have been trying to help the Syrian opposition since then.

When President Gul was here at the beginning of the year we learnt more about the enormous attempts our Turkish friends had made to encourage President Assad to introduce a political reform process. This simply never happened and as we sit here today it is obvious now that President Assad still rejects a political track despite the infinite patience and diplomatic skills of Kofi Annan. There is a reign of terror, of horror, in Syria; business is collapsing; sanctions are taking their toll; and those who can have tried to get out. It is tragic. Syria has an exceptional tradition of religious co-existence. Gertrude Bell wrote about it more than 100 years ago and it is tragically ironic that President Assad, who projected himself as the guarantor of intercommunal tolerance and co-operation will bequeath a country torn apart by inter-religious conflict. The substantial Christian minority, observing what has happened to Christians in Iraq and Egypt, now live in real fear.

The role of Russia in all of this remains increasingly inexplicable. Of course, Russia has significant and long-standing military, commercial and intelligent links to Syria—the only Arab country now with which it has such a relationship. Clearly, it has hoped to have some sort of mediation role. Indeed, it has publicly declared that it has no personal commitment to President Assad himself, but it must now be obvious that Assad has not given the slightest indication that he will leave the stage or co-operate. The Syrian opposition have constantly assured the Russians that their interests will be preserved. Russia, of course, fears the loss of influence in the region post-Iraq and post-Libya and fears the rise of Islamic fundamentalism on and within its own borders. Regrettably the Syrian opposition are much divided. There is no single charismatic leader and the minorities are insufficiently involved in their leadership, yet none of them favours military intervention. There is an argument to be had about supplying the free Syrian army with communications and other equipment but in the end I suspect it will be the draining of the Syrian Government’s financial reserves and the intransigence of Assad that may inch the Russians into a stance that leads to the Assad regime, damaged more and more by defections, to negotiate some sort of transitional process and its departure. If not, I believe it will simply be overcome by uncontrollable violence.

Of course, all of this is fraught with danger. Real violence may erupt between the different communities with even more horrific consequences. Yet a regime change, which I believe to be inevitable, presents fresh potential opportunities. The entire Syrian opposition have been appalled by the vocal support for the Assad regime by Hezbollah. It will not be forgiven. Hezbollah snipers are allegedly active in Syria. Equally, a new Syrian Administration will not have a comparable relationship with Iran. For Israel that presents an interesting possibility, arising out of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah link being broken. All of this is very uncertain at present and we do not know what the outcome will be. But Israel needs to be quietly thinking of the potential and be considering whether a further real attempt at a resolution of the Israel-Palestine problem and the future of the Golan Heights which have no strategic value any more, could be part of the prize of a greater normalisation of its relationship with its northern neighbours. Turkey, which sought to broker normality between Syria and Israel, is now obviously the pre-eminent regional power and Israel really needs to effect a rapprochement with its former friend.

Finally, we have all become aware of the economic shift from the West to the East, which stares us in the face. But quietly, the greatest consumer of energy, the United States, is moving to self-sufficiency. The price of energy has weakened and may continue to do so. It is possible that with greater use of nuclear or renewable energy, and the ability to exploit shale gas deposits, our dependence on the Middle East will diminish over time.

Democracy has made great strides in our lifetime in Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, the combination of a smaller future income stream, a demographic bulge and increasing religiosity will inevitably continue to make the Middle East a volatile region. What we have learnt—at times painfully—is that dramas played out in the region continue to affect us directly. For that reason we must, either singly or collectively with our friends and neighbours, continue to be fully engaged in what happens there. We will not be immune from events that unfold in the Middle East today.