Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union

Lord Ricketts Excerpts

Monday 28th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Ricketts (CB)]

My Lords, we are at the stage of the debate where everything has been said but not yet by everyone, and therefore I think it is best to be short.

To vary just a little what has been said this evening, I thought that I would do an exercise in imagination. I am not a very imaginative person but I have tried to imagine what the conversation would be like between the Prime Minister and Mr Juncker if Sir Graham Brady’s amendment passed in another place tomorrow.

I suppose that it would start with the Prime Minister going back to Brussels and saying, “Jean-Claude, I’ve got great news. I’ve got a parliamentary majority—for something”, to which the reply is, “Yes? Well, what’s the plan?” The Prime Minister says, “The plan is that we delete the backstop in its entirety and put in its place alternative arrangements”. I suppose that the EU reply would be, “So now you’re proposing to strip out the central and most hard-fought part of the negotiation that took 21 of the 24 months of the Article 50 period and which you agreed in outline in December 2017 and in detail in November of this year? What alternative arrangements are you proposing to put in its place?”, to which the Prime Minister might say, “Well, I don’t have any instructions from the House of Commons on that. What do you suggest, Jean-Claude?” He might say, “What about a customs union for the whole of the UK? That would resolve the problem of the Northern Ireland backstop and give the certainty to business that you say is so necessary”. The Prime Minister’s reply would be, “Ah, no. That crosses my red line”.

This is no way for a major country of the United Kingdom’s standing or any country negotiating with the EU to proceed. It would mean the Prime Minister once again ricocheting between the Commons and the Commission like a pinball with no proposals of her own and constantly waiting for the EU to supply the answers. In practice, a majority for Sir Graham Brady’s amendment would be a vote for no deal, because there would be no time to work out any alternative to the central feature of the backstop. It might be an attempt to shift the blame to the EU, but that is a manoeuvre that will convince no one.

The more the implications of no deal are studied, the clearer it becomes that it would be disastrous across whole sectors of our national life. The letter from the major supermarket chains today about the devastating impact on the availability of fresh fruit and vegetables in British supermarkets is one vivid illustration. I saw precisely that when I was ambassador in Paris and we had the short-term delay in 2015 caused by both migrants and a French seamen’s strike. Within days, the supermarket shelves were beginning to empty. In the case of no deal, that would become a permanent position.

I have been convinced for a long time that a no-deal Brexit would do serious damage to our security—the area that I know best. Noble Lords do not need to take just my advice on that; my noble friend Lady Manningham-Buller made that clear in the House recently and again in authoritative terms on the BBC’s “World at One” programme today. The police force consulted the Schengen Information System 539 million times in 2017, but access to that would be shut down from one day to the next if we left with no deal.

The EU might put in place temporary emergency contingency arrangements to keep the traffic flowing for a short time but we will be entirely dependent on the good will of the EU to make that work, even for a short time, and that good will will be in very short supply. Try selling that to potential future investors in this country as a worthwhile proposition. When we hear that the Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat, which used to report to me as National Security Adviser, has been dusting down martial law arrangements for dealing with disorder in the event of a no-deal Brexit, what are we to think of the pass that this country has come to? Incidentally, it might be interesting if the Minister could update the House on how that work in the Cabinet Office is progressing.

I, for my part, hope that Members in the other place will not be seduced by siren songs that stripping the heart out of the Prime Minister’s plan can in some way advance towards a deal with Brussels. I believe that that is a direct route to no deal. The thrust of Yvette Cooper’s amendment makes much more sense: ruling out no deal and looking forward to more time should there be no solution after four more weeks. That is the thrust of the Motion tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, this evening, and I will be supporting it.

We need to bear in mind the damage already done to the standing of this country internationally by the spectacle that we have presented over the last two years of so-called negotiation. We have suffered a serious loss of reputation. We are still miles away from any consensus on how to take things forward. Yes, I detect a growing momentum towards accepting that no deal should be taken off the table. Like the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, my studies of deterrence suggest that it is not very credible when exercising the deterrent would involve a massive act of self-harm.

The emerging conclusion that more time will be needed is interesting and makes sense, but more time for what? We are a long way from any clarity on that. This Government’s negotiating approach in the last year, frankly, does not give me much confidence that they will be open to genuine fresh thinking. That is why I believe that, while more time is needed, it must be coupled with further democratic consultation of the people, in the light of facts that have come out in the last two years and for the sake of our children and grandchildren.