Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Lord Rennard Excerpts

Wednesday 15th December 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

My Lords, we are debating Amendment 43, which was tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, and proposed a turnout threshold of 25 per cent. We are also debating Amendment 44B from my noble friend Lord Grocott, which proposed a 50 per cent turnout threshold. I thought that we were not debating Amendments 44A and 45A from the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, which propose 40 per cent, but the noble Lord has, no doubt tempted by the terms of the debate, put forward issues in relation to it. However, we will not come to votes in relation to those amendments until Monday, so it is entirely a matter for the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, as to what he says then. We are not debating Amendment 43A, from my noble friend Lord Rooker, which says the vote has to be 1 million votes ahead, and we are not debating Amendment 44 from the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, which says that there must be a majority in each kingdom of the United Kingdom.

This is an important constitutional debate. I do not go down the route that the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, tempts us down, which is to say that AV is such an appalling system that we really need something very substantial before we change to it. We have to look at this issue on the basis of it being a major constitutional change. Our constitution has developed over the past three decades, whereby a substantial majority in the House of Commons is not regarded as adequate for substantial constitutional changes such as staying in the European Union, devolving powers to Scotland and Wales and, now, fundamentally changing the voting system. That approach to the constitution is reflected by practically every developed democracy in the world whereby something more than the normal vote in Parliament is required. If that approach is the right one, and I sincerely believe that it is the right one—and it is plainly an approach shared by the coalition Government, who have rightly regarded a referendum as necessary before the change is made—we need to dig a little deeper to see what sort of referendum is required to legitimise the change. I emphasise “legitimise”, because what is being required is something that makes the public accept that a significant change in our constitution has legitimacy.

If one looks at the sorts of turnout that one might reasonably expect if the turnout reflected other sorts of votes, one gets an indication of what sort of turnout one might get in this case. Approximately 20 per cent of the electorate in the referendum will also vote in the Welsh Assembly or Scottish Parliament elections; roughly the turnout for those is about 50 per cent, so 20 per cent of 50 per cent equals 10 per cent of the population voting. Approximately 60 per cent will vote in local authority elections, where the average turnout is 34 per cent, which produces approximately 20 per cent of the population. Some 20 per cent of the population will not vote on anything other than the referendum. It is not unreasonable to suppose that the turnout in relation to those voting only in the referendum could be as low as 20 per cent, which would produce a turnout of 5 per cent of the population. If one adds 10 per cent to 5 per cent to 20 per cent, you get 35 per cent. So on the basis of reasonable estimates by reference to other sorts of elections, you get 35 per cent of the population voting in this referendum. If it was close, that would mean that maybe as few as 19 per cent of the population would have voted for the change. The purpose of having a special rule about major constitutional change—and I have not heard anyone dispute that this is major constitutional change—is that there should be some special procedure to give the change legitimacy.

The idea that 19 per cent of the electorate, voting in favour of the change, gives the degree of legitimacy that is required seems to be wrong. In those circumstances, it looks pretty obvious that something else is required other than simply a referendum. The importance of having legitimacy is that we do not want to enter a phase in which our constitutional system of voting changes every time there is a change of government. If, therefore, there is to be a change—I do not need to quote Nick Clegg saying that this is the most important change since 1832—it is obvious that there has not been a change in our voting system for well over 100 years. This will inevitably have an effect on the make-up of the House of Commons. People will regard the system chosen as being a significant contributor to who won the election.

How do we deal with the issue of legitimacy in those circumstances if simply—

[Lord Rennard]

The noble and learned Lord is a very distinguished member of the previous Government, who brought forward the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act. It was carried through the other place before the general election with provision for a referendum on the alternative vote to be held before October 2011. It did not provide any provision whatever for a threshold. Will the noble and learned Lord tell us why that was not considered appropriate by his Government? On the issue of legitimacy, he suggests that it is terribly important that there should be enough people voting to justify anything. Does he recall that that Government in 2005 were elected with 35 per cent of the vote of British people on a 61 per cent turnout? In other words, only about 21 per cent of the electorate voted for that Government. Does he consider that that was legitimate?

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

First, I was not a member of the Government that put it forward. I think they were wrong not to have a turnout threshold in relation to it. Secondly, 35 per cent voting for the Government is approximately double the number that could vote for a change in the constitution. The critical point that I am making is that there is not a system in the world in a developed democracy that does not require something out of the ordinary before you make a change in the constitution. Why is that such a common provision right throughout democracies? It is because people understand that to make such a permanent change is much more important than changing a Government—you can throw the Government out in five years or four years, or in our system, even in two and a half years if they lose authority. You are stuck with the change for a long time. So please, on the Benches over there, think not about the result you want, but about what sustains our democracy. A change that comes about through 19 per cent supporting it may not be a change that has legitimate support. So our position—

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[Lord Strathclyde]

My Lords, under the terms of the Bill, yes. But is that likely to happen? The noble and learned Lord got his calculator out—

[Lord Rennard]

My Lords, does my noble friend the Leader of the House agree that, if only 12 per cent vote against this change, there cannot be much opposition to it?

[Lord Strathclyde]

Up to a point, because I am going to argue in a moment that a threshold will encourage abstention and that therein lies a danger. Also, the Constitution Committee of this House recommended that the presumption should be against voter turnout thresholds in referendums.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

The issue, as posed by the noble Lord, Lord Lawson—correctly, in my view—is whether or not the threshold encourages votes. There have been referendums not only in the United Kingdom; there have been referendums in a whole range of countries. I presume that the Government have done some research on this before responding on the issue of thresholds. What does that research show? The noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, is shaking his head, looking bewildered and saying, “No, I can’t tell you”. He is saying to me that he regards the idea that the Government would have done any research into this as preposterous.

[Lord Rennard]

Will the noble and learned Lord tell us what research his Government did in the previous Parliament on this very issue before introducing their Bill?

[Lord Falconer of Thoroton]

I was not in the Government at the time. The noble Lord, Lord Tyler, is pointing at me in a rather aggressive way. I was not in the Government then, but the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, has access to a range of excellent civil servants who will tell him what the research is. I take it from the remarks that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, is making from a sedentary position that the Government have not troubled to do the research. He can correct me if I am wrong.