Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Lord Phillips of Sudbury Excerpts

Wednesday 16th February 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, I have not previously intervened in the debates on this Bill, although I have voted several times—in, I feel bound to say, both directions. I begin by making a procedural point. One of the most damaging things done by the previous Labour Government was to change the situation with regard to guillotining Bills. The old procedure was always that if the Government felt that there was undue delay or something was urgent, there would be a guillotine Motion debate for half a day and a vote at the end of it. This was replaced by programming, which was carried out throughout the previous Labour Government. Regrettably, it is continuing under the coalition, with the result that we will no doubt continue to have Bills arrive in this place with some parts having been very quickly considered. I very much hope that the Government will abandon programming from now on.

The reality is that the programming on this Bill has meant that debate in the other place has been severely curtailed, not least in respect of the amendments made by this House. The amendments that we are discussing today were given four hours of debate, and on this important constitutional amendment the debate lasted for 45 minutes or rather less. It is difficult to see how the other place can consider our amendments and think again in the course of a debate of that length. The fact that the other place has sent the measure back here needs to be considered in that context.

I turn to the substance of the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, which I enthusiastically support. My view throughout my time in the House of Commons—this remains my view—is that Members of the Commons are there as representatives, not delegates. As I said to my former constituents many times, that means that I will not vote as I would vote if I knew how a majority of my constituents would vote. I will consider their views and take them into account and then I will vote having taken all that into account. A referendum strikes fundamentally at that principle. Therefore, I have always been opposed to referendums but, as the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, points out, they have always been advisory. Therefore, I am totally opposed to the idea not of an indicative referendum but of a mandatory referendum, which is what we have been considering.

I strongly supported the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, and voted in favour of his amendment in which he made the basic point that the referendum should not be mandatory. Alas, that amendment was not carried. However, as he rightly points out, the amendment he is now putting forward constitutes a compromise. Although I am totally against a mandatory referendum altogether, I certainly enthusiastically support the noble Lord’s amendment. I very much hope that your Lordships will return it to another place with a large majority. Once one has considered these issues, it seems to me that the case for having a threshold is very strong indeed.

In the very short debate that took place in another place, Mr Winnick intervened in the Minister’s speech. He asked:

“At what point below 40%—10%, 15%, or 20%—would the Government conclude that the result did not carry any credibility whatever?”.—[Official Report, Commons, 15/2/11; col. 902.]

That is the situation. We have no idea what the turnout may be, but it may be very low indeed. We may have a very small majority on a very low turnout. We will then find that the law is changed automatically on a major constitutional point without any reference back to the House of Commons whatever. I believe that that is completely and totally wrong. I shall support the noble Lord in the Division Lobbies.

[Lord Phillips of Sudbury]

My Lords, initially, I was inclined to support the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Rooker. However, as time has gone by, I have to confess that my view has changed. I say at once that the arguments are evenly balanced—I think that many noble Lords agree with that. The noble and learned Lord, Lord Lloyd of Berwick, could have added to the strength of his already strong case by referring to the fact that the alternative vote referendum was a major plank of the manifestos of both the Liberal Democrat and Labour Parties at the recent general election.

I come back to the issue of a deterrent to voting at the forthcoming referendum, assuming that we get this Bill through. I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Lawson; my understanding is that if we accept the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, the probability, rather than the possibility, is that it could inadvertently act as a deterrent and a disincentive to vote. It is true to say that at many of the forthcoming local elections there will not be a 40 per cent turnout. There is no suggestion that local government comes to a halt if 40 per cent of the electorate do not turn out to vote for anybody. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, said that more than 40 per cent of this House voted for his amendment the first time round. But how many votes in this House reach the 40 per cent figure? What would happen if his amendment were passed and the referendum turnout was 39 per cent, with two-thirds of that 39 per cent being in favour of AV? What would then happen if the measure were to come back to this place? Noble Lords may say they can improve it, but you may not get even a 40 per cent turnout in this House.

What do the public think about a situation where we say, “We sort of trust you. This is, sort of, the decision which the public should make. But in the end, if 40 per cent of you don’t turn out, we will decide”.? There will not be a lot of understanding of that by the public, especially given that there is no more partisan issue imaginable than that of the voting system.

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

[Lord Phillips of Sudbury]

Absolutely. I am perfectly willing to accept the decision of the British people, whatever that is and whatever the turnout is. I really do not understand how you can, if you like, push the partisanship completely out of account by saying that if there is not a 40 per cent turnout, we will decide. At this forthcoming referendum, the majority of the Conservative Party will be against AV; and although it was in its referendum, I sense that the Labour Party will be against it. Partisanship will rule.

[Lord Myners]

The noble Lord spoke about the referendum of the Labour Party, but I think he meant the manifesto. Perhaps I may correct him; he described AV as being a major plank of the Liberal Democrat manifesto. In fact it was not. AV was described by the leader of the noble Lord’s party as a “miserable little compromise”.

[Lord Phillips of Sudbury]

My honourable friend Mr Clegg may call it what he likes.

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

[Lord Phillips of Sudbury]

It was a major plank in the Liberal Democrat manifesto and that is a fact. And so—

[Noble Lords]

More!

[Lord Phillips of Sudbury]

No; no more. That is quite enough. For those reasons, I will vote against the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Rooker.

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

My Lords, the noble and learned Lord, Lord Lloyd of Berwick, speaks from the very heart of reason and common sense when he says that the real role of this House, in a situation such as this, is to invite the House of Commons to think again. That, however, does not mean that that should happen only once. In the circumstances of this case, as has been so clearly shown by the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, the House of Commons has thought twice about the matter and come to totally different conclusions—although in both cases it happened to reject the proposition that we are discussing. In the first instance, the other place voted by 540 votes against and 31 votes for a threshold in the referendum. Last night, the vote against was carried by about 65 per cent to 70 per cent. The curve is clearly pointing in one direction. But be that as it may, one cannot say that the other place is expressing a consistent and monolithic view on the matter. That does not in any way defeat what the noble and learned Lord, Lord Lloyd, is saying, but to some extent it qualifies it in the special circumstances of this case.

One can summarise the issue in this way. We are dealing here, I think, with a balance of risks. The noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, is perfectly correct to say that when you invite the public to partake directly in a decision such as this, there is a risk that Parliament could be seen—in some way or other, without intending it—to be spurning that decision. That is a real risk. No one spoke very much about that risk in 1975 when the referendum was indicative or consultative. I have read the Act and there is clearly no suggestion that that referendum would have been mandatory in any way at all.

I urge noble Lords to consider another risk. A derisory turnout would deprive this vote of any sovereignty or realism as an arbitrement of the people. That is a massive risk. It is very unlikely to happen. It does not matter a great deal which of these proposals one chooses; I tabled one myself which might not have been quite as meritorious as the one now before the House. They are insurances against a failure that is unlikely to happen, but which could happen. A person insures his house against fire not because he knows that it is going to be destroyed—unless he has criminal intentions—or because he believes that it is likely to be destroyed. He does so because he considers that there is a slight chance that it could be destroyed. The more one thinks about something, the less likely one is to be prepared to take even the slightest risk. I am sure that that is our attitude to the families we love. Here the risk is small, but it can be covered by a small, modest and reasonable premium.