Covid-19 Update

Lord Patel Excerpts

Tuesday 15th December 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Patel (CB) [V]]

My Lords, we know that all viruses evolve and, while we do not yet know whether the genomic variant identified is more infectious, we do know that the transmission rate of the virus is rising exponentially. By the way, the Minister just said that the new variant correlates with increases in infection; the word “correlates” suggests cause and effect that has not yet been proven. Can the Minister tell us what scientific matrix the Government will use over the next week to make the political decision on whether to ease or otherwise the current restrictions, going forward to Christmas and beyond?

[Lord Bethell (Con) [V]]

My Lords, I am extremely grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Patel, for his description of affairs, which, as ever, is as thoughtful as we would hope. However, I clarify and disagree with him in that correlation and causation are not the same things. I chose my words extremely carefully: there is a correlation with higher transmissibility, but there is no evidence that this is caused by the variant; I want to be crystal clear about that. I pay tribute to colleagues at the Sanger and at COG, the genomics collective that is doing the work on tracking down the science of the new variant. Their insight is profound and they will be playing into the decisions about whether any judgment on the variant should play a role in the decisions about any future restrictions.