Coronavirus

Lord Patel Excerpts

Monday 3rd February 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Blackwood of North Oxford]

The noble Baroness has rightly raised this issue with me before. She is quite right that flu can and should be managed much more effectively in the community and by individuals. I think we have had an effective flu campaign this year. The flu vaccine has been offered to 25 million people. We have also extended the flu programme this year to children in year 6 to improve herd immunity and drive up its impact. We are seeing the number of those with flu declining, so we are starting to see some improvement. However, I completely recognise the noble Baroness’s point about public health lessons and improving public education on the management of infectious conditions, which we live with every winter, not just when we have an infectious situation such as this. I thank the noble Baroness for an important question.

[Lord Patel (CB)]

My Lords, in my view the measures the Government have taken are balanced so as not to cause a panic and unnecessary alarm. The important thing, though, is that the Government remain on top of developments. If the virus mutates and spreads rapidly from human to human, it will require much more draconian measures to be taken.

It has been reported that the virus transmits from human to human and to people who have not been in China, although the numbers are small. An index or measure of human-to-human transfer is known as R0. It currently stands at about 1 to 2. If it increases, that means the virus is spreading faster. Sequencing of all the known cases so far suggests that the virus has not mutated. It remains 99.98% the same sequence, including in the two patients known in the United Kingdom. I hope the Government have a strategy in place to keep on top of developments and that they will take the steps required to stop the spread.

[Baroness Blackwood of North Oxford]

I thank the noble Lord. He is right that there is a global effort to keep on top of the sequencing of the virus to track any evolution of it. As he said, the indications are that the virus has not evolved in the past month, which is encouraging. The rate of transmission is as reported. That means that the infection control measures in place, which are based on clinical evidence and the data, are proportionate and appropriate. Combined with the public health advice that has come out and the contributions each of us can make as individuals to manage the spread of infection, we believe that this is the responsible and appropriate route. However, as the noble Lord said, we will keep the developing situation under a close eye so that we can respond quickly and nimbly as the situation goes forward.