Coalition Government: Constitution Committee Report

Lord O'Donnell Excerpts

Tuesday 13th May 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord O'Donnell (CB)]

First, I add my congratulations to the noble Baroness, Lady Jay, and her committee on producing an important and timely report. I broadly support the conclusions and I very much hope that Ministers and—picking up on what was just said—the Opposition will implement the suggested changes. I should also note that I agree very strongly with my illustrious predecessor, my noble friend Lord Butler, on the points that he has made, with one exception: I am with the noble Lord, Lord Tyler, on the question of fixed-term Parliaments. I think they are a good thing.

I want to make one practical point. We have a very large number of Select Committees in this House and the other place. We have a period between now and the election. Would it not be great if all the Select Committees looked back on their reports and recommendations and produced a short note on what has been changed as a result and those things where nothing has happened? Not only might this tell us about the effectiveness of the committees but it might stimulate a bit of debate about whether the Government have responded in line with the recommendations or have decided not to take them up. In the run-up to manifestos being produced, it might generate some interesting material or policies. That is my first suggestion.

Tonight, I want to take the opportunity to look forward to the next election rather than backwards, and I will argue that the past is not necessarily a good guide to the future. We have already had a lot of discussion about different interpretations of the past and I look forward to them being elucidated further in the many memoirs to come—which will not include mine.

Many have commented on the committee’s suggestion that the principle of collective responsibility should be set aside only very rarely. I strongly endorse that principle, but I have to acknowledge that the coalition parties have agreed that they will fight the next election as separate parties. As the first parties came down the steps at Downing Street, I, for one, felt that we were at the high point of the coalition. I expected that, as we got to the point where the election was formally called, we would be at the low point and that there would be a curve in that direction. I got out at the top point. However, let us be clear that this was inevitable. To me, it was entirely predictable and that curve has gone entirely as I expected.

Ahead of the next general election, let us think about what the Civil Service will have to do. I believe in the Boy Scouts’ motto, “Be prepared”. It is very important that the Civil Service prepares itself for all possible outcomes. We heard the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, ask whether we will have another coalition, although he believes it is unlikely. As the noble Lord, Lord Tyler, said, the pollsters are very clear that the long-term decline in the share of the vote going to the two main parties is apparent in the data. It is a really interesting question and it is rather difficult to predict what is going to happen next time. I intend to spend a little time, in a very nerdy way, modelling that process but it will be very tricky. However, I think that the Civil Service will need to work not on the basis of those predictions but on the basis that it should prepare for all possible outcomes. I would certainly include more work on minority Governments than was done on previous occasions and—something that people have not picked up on—I would certainly think about contingency work, looking at scenarios following all possible results in the Scottish referendum. People may decide that they want to do this contingency work once they know the result of that referendum, but one thing that will help the Civil Service is having a complete Cabinet Manual and not just a draft of one of its chapters.

One thing that I will try to keep to in my comments, which not many other people have done, is that in the Civil Service preparations ahead of last time we decided we would use the term “unclear result”. People have referred to “inconclusive results” but the terms “hung” and “balanced” are rather unbalanced and therefore “unclear result” is the best way of thinking about it.

Picking up on what both the noble Lords, Lord Strathclyde and Lord McConnell, have said, there were a number of myths about coalition. One of them was that you had the lowest common denominators and that they would not do very much. We have had ample evidence now that that is not true. Whether or not you think they have done the right things, they have made large changes.

On the points that were made about the kind of Government that we have got, on comparing coalition with single-party government it is certainly my experience that the Cabinet committees have done a great deal more of the heavy lifting during coalition than has been the case during single-party government by both parties. While people talk about the quad doing a lot, believe me, smaller groups of Ministers before did quite a lot. The quad is relatively formal compared to some of those other occasions.

On the point about the length of time it might take before finalising a Government if there were to be an unclear result next time, this is important because a number of people have made the point about the media clamouring “to get on with it” and castigating the Prime Minister for staying. The excellent report makes clear that it is the Prime Minister’s duty to stay around until it is clear who will succeed him or her. It is important that we talk about the length of time.

This time it will be different. Let me give you five quick reasons why. First, the macroeconomic background will be, as the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, said, rather more favourable. I predict with a pretty high degree of confidence that the UK deficit will be much lower, growth will be higher and, with slightly less confidence, there will be no euro crisis going on. Secondly, the markets will have observed that coalition government is feasible in the United Kingdom—there were some rather silly remarks made last time—and that will make them more patient. Thirdly, it is likely that the two main parties might need to engage in more consultation with their MPs than they did last time. Fourthly, all parties in the negotiations might have made more commitments in advance, thereby restricting their room for manoeuvre. That will raise all kinds of complications. Finally, there may be all kinds of questions about the parameters of any negotiations with Scotland if there is a yes vote in the referendum.

For all those reasons, it will be important to allow the negotiators time to reach a durable agreement and for markets and the public to realise that such negotiations, judged by experience in continental Europe—I again think of what the noble Lord, Lord Tyler, said—will in general take much longer than five days. Indeed, it was a future Lib Dem Minister in the negotiations last time who pointed out to me that the average in Europe at that point, in 2010, was around 44 days. If we took the recent Belgian and German experiences into account, we might come up with a higher number.

None of what I have said should be seen as implying anything about the likelihood of an unclear result. It follows from the simple principle that civil servants need to be prepared for whatever emerges.

My overwhelming memory of the discussions in 2010—I hope I am not breaking any conventions here—is that all the key politicians behaved not only effectively but well and honourably. There were very few leaks during the talks and very little grandstanding to the media. I hope that that will be repeated. Many of the key civil servants are still in post and I know that they learnt a lot from their experience in 2010. I have no doubt that the Civil Service will do even better next time.

What can we, as parliamentarians, do to help? First, we have a duty to encourage increased participation in elections. The Hansard Society’s excellent audit of political engagement, of which we have all just received copies, makes particularly worrying reading. Eighteen months ahead of the general elections in 2005 and 2010, it found that the majority of respondents said that they were certain to vote. Now, for the same period, it is a minority. It concludes that,

“turnout may struggle to match 2010 levels next year”.

That is the society’s conclusion, not mine. It goes on to say that less than a quarter of the public believe that,

“Parliament encourages public involvement in politics”.

We need to consider how we can do something about that.

Television debates certainly encouraged and stimulated public interest last time. It is important that these debates are seen as having democratic legitimacy. I fear for this because, at the moment, negotiations are being conducted solely between a few parties and the broadcasters. That is not necessarily right.

I thank the committee. I threw a bit of a curve ball at it—as a witness you are supposed to answer questions, not pose them—when I said that I was worried about the question of access to papers, a point raised by the noble Lord, Lord McConnell. It has come up with a sensible suggestion. The absence of an answer in advance creates all kinds of problems and I hope that we can get a cross-party consensus around operating in that way.

Once again, I congratulate the Select Committee on an excellent report. It is very sad that there has not yet been a government response. I would love to be able to say that this would never have happened in my day but I fear that the evidence may not be entirely with me. I look forward to the Minister’s response and hope that a future committee, with as much wisdom and experience as this one has shown, will be able to tackle some of the issues I have raised today and come forth with another report which we can debate in this House.