COP 26

Lord Newby Excerpts

Tuesday 16th November 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Smith of Basildon (Lab)]

There seems to be some disruption; I do not know whether we are being haunted. If the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, could mute, that might be helpful—just on this occasion, I hasten to add.

This is the decisive decade for tackling the climate emergency. Although we better understand the seriousness of the issue, the real threat to progress is no longer denial but delay.

For film fans—bear with me on this—when Rick said the immortal words to Ilsa in “Casablanca”, “We’ll always have Paris”, he could not have imagined how apt they would be, 80 years later. The Paris summit in 2015 built an international alliance to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. The Prime Minister says in the Statement that COP 26 succeeded not just in keeping that 1.5 degrees target alive but in going further. I hope and want his optimism to be justified, but it feels more like the 1.5 degrees target is on life support. Meeting it would mean halving global emissions by 2030. The challenge for COP 26—so that we would always have Paris—was to close the gap between that aspiration and the reality of the pledges made. If Rick and Ilsa could do it, so can we. But did we?

We have to be honest about what has been achieved. Progress has been modest. We saw encouraging agreements on methane, deforestation, and the sales of petrol and diesel cars. Too often, however, the real delivery that will make a difference will come too late. According to the Climate Action Tracker, the pledges made at Glasgow for 2030, even if fully implemented, represent less than 25% of the ambition required. Rather than limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, we are now on track for a devastating 2.4 degrees rise. That is not just a number: it really matters. It could lead to billions of people facing extreme heatwaves, millions forced to leave their homes, and increased threats to both the natural wonders of the world and overall security. The Prime Minister kicked off the conference by saying that it was “one minute to midnight” on the doomsday clock. Can the Leader tell the House what time it is now, and whether we will still have Paris?

For years, coal has been the elephant in the room at these summits, so having an explicit reference in the agreement for the first time is really important. Who could not have been moved by Alok Sharma’s emotional reaction to that last-minute change to “phase down”? That really illustrates that hopes were cruelly dashed, despite the Prime Minister’s approval in the Statement. The raw emotion that we saw from Alok Sharma was also palpable among the Pacific Islanders. For many, climate change is genuinely existential, so even the announcement that 190 countries and organisations had agreed a timetable to end the use of coal does not bear scrutiny. Of those 190, only 46 were actually countries, of which 23 were new signatories and 10 do not even use coal. It is a coalition that includes NatWest and the national grid but not China, the United States or India.

There then came climate finance. It is a moral plight on developing nations that the 2009 commitment to provide $100 billion a year to emerging economies still has not been delivered; it will not be until 2023. That failure to deliver is self-defeating because it damages trust and prevents a high-ambition international coalition being built.

With his now typical overexuberance, the Prime Minister lauded the net-zero commitments made. Yet Saudi Arabia, for example, is still increasing oil production, despite its 2060 net-zero claim, and Australia will not even legislate for its 2050 net-zero target. We all know the importance of trade deals, but will the Leader explain why the Government dropped the Paris temperature commitment from the trade deal that we now have with Australia?

I had hoped that the Statement would refer to Thérèse Coffey’s welcome boast at the summit of the UK being

“the first country to legally require pension trustees to assess and publish the financial risks from climate change”.

I am sorry that it was not in the Statement, but the Leader of the House may recall that it was a Labour-led amendment in your Lordships’ House, supported across this House, that secured that historic commitment. We are pleased that we were able to be helpful, so that the Government could boast about that achievement at COP.

For the next 12 months, we have the COP presidency, and that gives us a key leadership responsibility. But the Government’s ability to step up and deliver is called into question by the Climate Change Committee’s recent report to Parliament, which said that the Government had been

“too slow to follow its climate promises with delivery”.

We cannot just put climate policy in a separate box: all government policies need to be linked to climate commitments, including trade deals. Yet Rishi Sunak’s Budget failed to mention climate change; it did not secure the necessary green investment, but it did give a tax break for domestic flights. That we were the only G7 country to cut overseas aid when seeking international co-operation on climate clearly damaged trust at COP.

When we wanted to focus on the summit issues and the climate emergency, many of us found it very difficult to watch the Prime Minister seeking to assure the world’s media that the UK was not corrupt, following his political shenanigans away from the summit. It was not exactly Mr Johnson’s finest hour.

Looking forward, I hope that the Leader is able to update us today on how Ministers can get a grip, reorder their priorities and invest in the green recovery. Can she give us an assurance that the net-zero test will be applied to all future decisions? Given what was said at COP 26, what is the Government’s renewed plan for phasing out fossil fuels, including rewriting the planning framework to rule out coal and say no to the Cambo oil field?

In conclusion, there was some welcome progress at COP 26 but it could have, and should have, achieved far more. Real action, not more rhetoric, must now follow, because the world just cannot wait any longer.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, I agree with the Prime Minister that those who thought that COP 26 would be a failure have been proved wrong. There were agreements on forests, methane, cars and finance, and there is undoubtedly some momentum among Governments and the private sector to move more quickly than previously.

Alok Sharma clearly worked extremely hard to achieve even more substantive progress, and he and his team deserve our thanks for all their efforts. By contrast, the Prime Minister seems to have played no concerted role at any point over the last two years. As the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, said, his second visit to COP seemed to consist only of a press conference dominated by the question of whether the UK, under his watch, is now a corrupt country.

The Statement itself demonstrates the Prime Minister’s addiction to hyperbole. The world, he says, is “calling time on coal.” Really? When is that time? The declaration on coal is positive but, as it stands, is consistent with India and China continuing to use very large amounts of coal for decades ahead, decades which the world simply does not have. The Prime Minister says, we have

“ticked our boxes on cars, cash and trees.”

I fear that, for him, that is exactly what we have done: enough to enable him to claim that a success has been achieved, with no recognition that the agreements in these areas, although very welcome, are partial and will need continuing global pressure to achieve their stated goals.

As the dust settles on the conference, the key questions in every sector contributing to climate change are, “How do we build on the progress of COP 26?” and, “What role can the UK play?” I will concentrate on just three areas: finance, China, and the UK’s own carbon reduction strategy.

On finance, it is important that companies set targets and keep to them and that we do not facilitate the funding of climate-threatening activities. On the former, can the noble Baroness confirm what carbon reduction plans the UK will require companies listed in the UK to set in future, and what sanctions there will be to ensure that they are fulfilled? Does she agree that choking off finance for new fossil fuel exploration and development is potentially crucial? If so, will the Government commit to banning new stock exchange listings of fossil fuel companies and funds? Will the Government also press for a change in the capital adequacy rules, so that they reflect the climate change risks attached to lending by banks to fossil fuel companies? Does she accept that this could in effect price out the viability of such loans in future?

On China, the Prime Minister has expressed his frustration that they did not make further commitments at COP 26. He rightly accepts that he is not in a position to tell President Xi what to do, but there seems to have been a retreat in the diplomatic resources and effort put into climate change diplomacy, not just with China but globally. China’s stock has been weakened in the eyes of the island states, and much of the developing world, by their unwillingness to move more quickly. Surely this is something we should be tapping into via our Diplomatic Service to encourage those countries to put pressure on China, which in the past has so assiduously sought their votes at the UN and in other international bodies. Will the diplomatic resources devoted to climate change be increased to allow this to happen?

Domestically, the Government’s policy, despite the targets, is characterised by a lack of consistency and ambition. Will the Government now make it clear that they oppose any further coal or oil extraction in this country? Will they up their game on insulating homes and installing heat pumps? Will they give real impetus to developing working carbon capture and storage schemes, which have been promised for so long but not delivered? Will they stop doing counterproductive things, such as the reduction in air passenger duty?

The Prime Minister, quoting Aristotle in his Statement, says that

“virtue comes ... from habit and practice”

and implies that he favours virtue, at least in our approach to climate change. Will he therefore heed his own, or rather Aristotle’s, words, cut out the hyperbole and more assiduously practise what he preaches?

[The Lord Privy Seal (Baroness Evans of Bowes Park) (Con)]

I thank the noble Baroness and the noble Lord for their comments. I am slightly disappointed, although, to be fair, the noble Baroness did highlight that much progress had been made. I think we have been very clear that we did not reach all the targets that we wanted to reach, but it is a misrepresentation of COP to say that we did not make some significant progress. The Glasgow climate pact was a historic agreement, the gap in ambition has narrowed and we now have net-zero commitments for over 90% of the world’s economy, up from just 30% two years ago.

COP has kept 1.5 degrees alive. I completely accept the noble Baroness’s point that we did not get as far as we wanted, but the combination of net-zero targets, enhanced 2030 emission-reduction commitments and agreed action in key sectors, all underpinned by the rules, systems and support agreed in Glasgow, will significantly reduce emissions by 2030 and can put the world on track for below two degrees. I totally accept, as does the Prime Minister, and indeed Alok Sharma, that there now needs to be a concerted effort and delivery by all countries. We are not on track for 1.5 degrees at the moment, but that is one reason why COP 26 agreed that countries will return next year with stronger emission reduction targets for 2030, so that we can keep the momentum going and try to get back on track.

So countries have agreed to return next year with their new targets. This will be combined with a yearly political round table to consider a global progress report and a leaders’ summit. The pact creates a new UN programme to work with countries to scale up their emission reduction targets, and these will report back next year. Following this COP, a yearly report from the UNFCCC, which was previously conducted every five years, will give a clearer picture of countries’ latest targets and how they are going to close the emissions gap. The noble Lord talked, for instance, about pressure on China. All these actions are aimed at shining the spotlight on all countries and globally, and helping us continue to move forward.

One thing that neither the noble Baroness nor the noble Lord mentioned, but which it is important to mention, is that the Paris rulebook—the guidelines on how the Paris Agreement is to be delivered—was completed after six years of discussion. These guidelines are an important step forward in transparency and holding countries to account for their targets.

The noble Baroness and the noble Lord rightly talked about coal. We have been quite clear that it was disappointing that some countries wanted softer language than perhaps we would have liked. However, I still maintain that this was the first time that a pact has mentioned coal power and fossil fuels. They were referenced in a COP text and were agreed by all the countries involved. Some 65 countries have now committed to phasing out coal, including four of the world’s top 20 coal power-generating countries: South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Poland. All major coal-financing countries have committed to end international coal finance by the end of 2021. We also saw a significant commitment of the G20 countries in that regard, which included China, the USA and India, which can have an immediate impact in the Asia-Pacific region.

The noble Lord asked about the Chancellor’s announcement. He set out plans for the UK to be the world’s first net-zero aligned financial centre, with new requirements for UK financial institutions and listed companies to publish net-zero transition plans that detail how they will adapt and decarbonise as the UK moves towards a net-zero economy by 2050, and further work and publications will come on that side of things.

Both the noble Lord and the noble Baroness rightly mentioned the $100 billion climate finance target. Again, we have said that we deeply regret the fact that this target was not met in 2020 as originally committed to, but the plan does show that the goal will be met by 2023 at the latest and continues on a rising trajectory to 2025. We are increasingly hopeful of meeting, or coming close to meeting, the goal by 2022, although I accept that that is obviously still two years out. It has been important that 95% of the major developed country climate finance providers have come forward during COP with increased multi-year climate finance commitments, with some doubling or even quadrupling their climate finance.

We welcome Australia’s commitment to net zero by 2050. I can assure the noble Baroness that our trade deal with Australia will include a substantive chapter on climate change, which reaffirms our joint commitment to upholding our obligations under the Paris Agreement, including limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. That goes further than many previous trade agreements.

Domestic aviation, which both the noble Lord and the noble Baroness mentioned, accounts for less than 1% of the UK’s total emissions in 2019. We have announced, alongside the announcements in the Budget, a new ultra-long-haul ban to align more closely with our environmental objectives. We are also investing £180 million in a competition to support the development of plants for sustainable aviation fuel in the UK.

The noble Baroness asked about the Cambo field. That proposal is being scrutinised by independent regulators, and no decision has yet been taken, but the UK was the first G7 country to agree a landmark deal to support the oil and gas industry’s transition to clean green energy by 2050 while supporting 40,000 jobs. The reason we were able to bring people together and take these steps forward is that we are a world leader in this area. We are leading by example and we will continue to lead by example. While we did not achieve everything that we wanted at COP, it has been a major step forward for the world.