Exiting the European Union

Lord Newby Excerpts

Monday 10th December 2018 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Smith of Basildon (Lab)]

My Lords, having had an unexpected opportunity to watch the Prime Minister delivering her Statement earlier today, I listened with great care and have also read it through. I was hoping that there would be some greater clarity about the Prime Minister’s and the Government’s intentions. Yet the Statement provides less clarity rather than more. The only reason the Prime Minister has given for denying Members of Parliament in the other place the opportunity to vote on the deal is that,

“it would be rejected by a significant margin”.

So what happens next? The Statement says that the Cabinet will step up preparations for no deal. Yet to date the so-called no-deal preparations are not going too well. The Government are already behind on legislation and statutory instruments. This is not strong or stable government. Despite the chaos unfolding around her, the Prime Minister appears to be in denial and the Statement says that she has “absolutely no doubt” that this is the right deal.

The Prime Minister seems to be saying to Brexit supporters that, unless they support her deal, they could get another referendum and lose and it would be divisive, as if the country is not divided enough already. Does the Prime Minister not realise that? To those who are against Brexit she says that, unless they support her deal, we will crash out with no deal, which would be catastrophic. It appears that the Prime Minister is trying to alarm and frighten Members of Parliament into backing her. That is hardly a great strategy and not a great endorsement for her deal.

I know that the noble Baroness the Leader of the House understands her responsibilities and duty to this House in answering for the Prime Minister, in such unprecedented circumstances, and I know that she will want to be helpful today. Given that the Cabinet has discussed this issue today, and she has spoken with the Prime Minister, can she give any indication of the timetable of when the meaningful vote will take place in the Commons? My information is that the Prime Minister would only tell Cabinet Ministers—probably because they would leak—that it would have to be before the statutory deadline of 21 January 2019. That is no answer because, if that is the case, the Commons would be unable to conduct any substantial business before such a vote.

This attitude is in danger of deepening the constitutional crisis that we are hurtling towards. Is there likely to be a vote before Christmas? What are the Prime Minister’s intentions at the European Council meeting later this week regarding the Northern Ireland backstop? Is she seeking changes—and if so, what—which would risk opening up other issues, or merely clarification? If it is the latter, why could she not have sought that already without delaying the parliamentary process?

Finally, as the noble Baroness has spoken to the Prime Minister today, does she have confidence in her to be able to squeeze concessions out of the EU 27, given that they consider the matter closed and she says that she will not shift from her red lines, or does she think that is stretching the season of good will just a little too far?

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness the Leader of the House for repeating the Statement.

This is a curiously insubstantial Statement. It appears to be a demonstration of one of the Prime Minister’s most tried and tested political tactics: kicking the can down the road for another week. Why? She is open and straightforward about that; she has been listening to what has been said and has formed the understandable view that the deal will be,

“rejected by a significant margin”,

in the Commons. What is her response to this imminent rejection? She says:

“I spoke to a number of EU leaders over the weekend, and in advance of the European Council I will go to see my counterparts in other member states and the leadership of the Council and the Commission. I will discuss with them the clear concerns that this House has expressed”.


I am sure that she will explain that she cannot get the current deal through in its current form, but what happens next? She says that she will seek to ensure,

“additional reassurance on the question of the backstop”.

What does “reassurance” mean in this context? What specific reassurances is the Prime Minister looking for, particularly given that she knows that the reopening of the whole withdrawal agreement is simply not on offer? I think Leo Varadkar speaks for everyone who has given an opinion from the EU side today when he says:

“It is not possible to reopen any aspect of that agreement without reopening all aspects of it”.


Obviously, the Prime Minister is not in the market for reopening all aspects of the agreement, therefore she accepts that the backstop is not negotiable. Indeed she does, because she says:

“Many of the most controversial aspects of this deal—including the backstop—are simply inescapable facts of having a negotiated Brexit”.


She then challenges her opponents in her own party:

“Those members who … disagree need to shoulder the responsibility of advocating an alternative solution that can be delivered”.


It is quite clear, from everything the Prime Minister has said in recent weeks, that she does not believe that such an alternative solution exists.

Having in effect accepted that she will not secure significant changes this weekend on the backstop, the Prime Minister has reverted to one of her other most common tactics: the Government’s own Project Fear with regard to no-deal Brexit. She says that,

“the Government will step up their work in preparation for that potential outcome and the Cabinet will hold further discussions on it this week”.

I wonder how many weeks and how many Statements have contained that statement that the Cabinet will have further discussions on something and step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Can the noble Baroness the Leader tell us how much money has already been spent on a no-deal Brexit, and what the Government’s plans are with regard to expenditure between now and the end of March?

The Prime Minister then says that there is a real danger that if,

“we fail to agree a deal, the risk of an accidental no deal increases”.

But the possibility of an accidental no deal has disappeared with the Grieve amendment. You will have an accidental no deal only if the Commons, by some means, is denied the opportunity to vote on something else. The Grieve amendment now means that the Commons will have the opportunity to vote on something else in any circumstance. The noble Lord, Lord Callanan, shakes his head; perhaps he can advise the Leader what to say in response to that, because I thought that is what the Grieve amendment meant. If it does not mean that, perhaps she will tell us what it means.

Not only is there a whiff of decay around the Government in general, but there is an overwhelming sense that the Prime Minister is going through the motions before bringing the same deal back to Parliament either next week or early in the new year. It is now clearer than ever that the Government’s deal—the best possible deal, according to the Prime Minister—is an extremely unappetising dog’s breakfast. The Commons has already, in effect, rejected it; its last rites should now be given by the people.

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

I thank the noble Baroness and the noble Lord for their comments. It seems to be my weekly treat: responding to their responses to a prime ministerial Statement. I believe we shall have another next week so I look forward to that as well. Both the noble Baroness and the noble Lord asked about no deal. Of course, we do not want no deal but we continue to prepare for one. Extensive work has been under way for over two years. We have successfully passed critical legislation, signed international agreements, recruited additional staff and guaranteed certain EU funding for a no-deal scenario.

The noble Lord asked about money. As he will be aware, the Chancellor previously announced that £2 billion has been put aside for no-deal planning, and we have published 106 technical notices to help businesses and citizens to prepare for a no-deal event; we will continue to do that. The noble Baroness asked about a future date. She will be aware that no date has yet been set; the Prime Minister is now focused on securing the assurances for Parliament that she believes are necessary. The EU and Irish Governments have been clear that without a backstop there is no deal but, both in this House and in the other place, significant concern has been expressed, specifically about the perceived indefinite nature of the backstop.

As the Statement made clear, we had hoped that the changes we have secured would have been sufficient to reassure noble Lords and Members of the other place that we could not be trapped in a backstop indefinitely, but they have not done so. Therefore the Prime Minister will go back to the EU to try to get further reassurances and she is exploring a number of ways in which this may be achieved. Over the weekend, the Prime Minister spoke to Presidents Juncker and Tusk, Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte and Taoiseach Varadkar. In those conversations, the leaders indicated that they are open to discussions to find a way to provide reassurance to Members on this point. These will be very important discussions. Over the next few days, in advance of the Council, the Prime Minister will speak and meet with leaders, the Council and the Commission. Discussions will happen at both official and political levels.