Gulf Countries and Qatar

Lord McInnes of Kilwinning Excerpts

Tuesday 11th July 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord McInnes of Kilwinning (Con)]

My Lords, I am sure I speak on behalf of all noble Lords when I thank the noble Lord, Lord Collins, for bringing this enormously important topic before your Lordships’ House. It is important to emphasise from the very beginning what a difficult but pivotal position Her Majesty’s Government find themselves in over the current Gulf dispute. There is no doubt that on both sides there are specific British interests that must be protected. Probably more important, however, would be the damage to the equilibrium of the Gulf states and the wider Middle East by allowing this dispute to escalate further. As we celebrate the defeat of ISIL in Mosul, we cannot allow our common front to be undermined. In many ways, the current dispute comes from the independent foreign policy path followed by Qatar at the same time as other Gulf states have sought an increasingly unified foreign policy, led by the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates.

On both sides of the dispute, there is a strong partnership between the United Kingdom and, on one side, our friends and allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, and, on the other, our equally essential global partners Qatar and Turkey, while the outcome of the dispute relies on successful mediation by our friends Kuwait and Oman. We therefore have a unique opportunity to ensure that British influence is an integral part of keeping pressure on all parties to ensure a successful de-escalation of the dispute, at the same time as ensuring, importantly, that all accusations of terrorist support are properly investigated in a transparent way that the world community can have confidence in.

The ultimatum delivered to Qatar undoubtedly raises issues that are of concern to all of us in your Lordships’ House. As the noble Lord, Lord Collins, said, the accusations of terrorist support made by a number of Gulf states have been in the public domain for 10 to 15 years. In my opinion, the current crisis is a product of three factors: the growth and viability of political Islam; the ongoing conflict and civil war in Syria and Iraq; and Iran’s interest in proxy wars throughout the Middle East.

The war in Syria and Iraq has produced a game of three-dimensional chess involving ISIL, Iran, Assad, Syrian rebels and Russia. How can one doubt, therefore, that any unanimity among the Gulf states is going to be pried apart in this kind of conflation? The joint foreign policy of the GCC countries has been most dramatically undermined in relation to Iran’s involvement in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. While Qatar and Oman have demonstrated the ability to retain dialogue and influence in Tehran, the other Gulf states, principally the Saudis, have become further entrenched in moving further away from Iran, which can only bring about further suspicion within the GCC. At the same time, Qatar’s apparent support and protection for the Muslim Brotherhood and the political Islam favoured by our own NATO ally Turkey has put Doha on a collision course with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Qatar’s foreign policy has reached a point where it is difficult to see how there can be a joint foreign policy within the GCC.

It now seems incredible that only 10 or 15 years ago there was a realistic expectation of a joint foreign, currency and defence policy within the GCC. I applaud the efforts of my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary in his personal commitment to find a way out of the crisis. In repeatedly asking that any demands be reasonable, Her Majesty’s Government have set the correct tone to avoid further escalation. All accusations of terrorist involvement must be dealt with but there is a balance of reasonableness in all things and demands cannot be premeditated to be impossible to fulfil. One is reminded of the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to the Serbians in 1914: there was no way out. We cannot allow this position within the GCC to continue and we must do all we can to ensure that there are ways out for all involved.

Equally, there must be found a means by which a path towards compromise can also be found in Doha. The Qatari people are now suffering because of the country is seen as being too close to Iran as well as to terrorist organisations. The Qataris must be prepared to work with other states to demonstrate continuing vigilance on both these issues.

Only through this kind of constructive engagement can the UK, France and the United States ensure that agreement can be reached. I am glad that the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has dampened down the expectation that the Americans would take a belligerent attitude to Qatari interests. In fact, in the past 24 hours, that position has changed quite remarkably. It is no one’s interest that Qatar is pushed into the warm embrace of Iran. I am very pleased that Her Majesty’s Government have taken such a sensitive approach to this dispute and I urge the Minister to reinforce the current trajectory of ensuring realistic demands from the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates as well as transparency from Qatar in dealing with terrorist organisations and their financial support. However, I shall finish on the point that Qatar is a sovereign nation and its foreign policy objectives cannot be completely constrained by its neighbours.