Wednesday 18th May 2022

(1 year, 11 months ago)

Lords Chamber
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Lord McDonald of Salford Portrait Lord McDonald of Salford (CB)
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My Lords, despite the Cypriot and Japanese interlude, Ukraine has dominated this debate, and it will dominate the United Kingdom’s foreign policy for the period addressed in the gracious Speech.

The three months since Russia’s unprovoked invasion have been extraordinary. How and when the war will end is not yet clear, but some things are. Measured by its original objectives, Russia has already lost. Ukraine will never be a submissive and compliant province of Russia, and Ukrainians will never be willing or docile subjects of Moscow. Measured by any standards, Russia is losing.

Earlier today, with the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, I saw the British ambassador to Ukraine. She reported that Ukraine’s performance to date is a virtuous circle, with success inspiring Ukrainians to strive for further success. She was confident that, with external help, the loss of Mariupol would not interrupt this positive cycle. I hope that, when replying later, the Minister will join me in congratulating Melinda Simmons and her team for their outstanding work in Kyiv.

Putin’s problems now also encompass Russia’s traditional international partners. On Monday this week, he entertained the five other heads of state and government of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. They were celebrating its 30th anniversary, but the atmosphere was not festive: only Belarus supported the war. Despite that, Secretary-General Stanislav Zas optimistically predicted that other states would soon join the CSTO. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, on the other hand, can more plausibly be confident about the future, having received this morning the formal applications of Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

Putin is reacting to reverses on the battlefield and the international stage by lashing out. Despite the fact that Russia joined other nuclear weapon states as recently as January this year in reaffirming that a nuclear war could never be won and should never be started, he muses in public about using nuclear weapons. The UK must be part of a concerted effort to get the whole international community, including China, India and others sitting on the diplomatic fence, to remind Moscow of the absolute unacceptability of first use of nuclear weapons.

For the rest, the UK should continue and ramp up existing policies but also prepare for the future, as suggested by the noble Lord, Lord Whitty. UK-supplied weapons helped Ukraine at the beginning; ramped up supply can help it win. UK sanctions are sweeping but not yet comprehensive. We must move from merely freezing assets of the sanctioned to seizing assets for redistribution to the Russian people, as almost floated by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig of Radley.

We should also begin preparing now for reconstruction, work that can nestle within the international development strategy announced two days ago. Ukraine faced fundamental challenges even before 24 February. Businesspeople in your Lordships’ House have long classified Ukraine as among the most corrupt countries in Europe. How reconstruction aid is disbursed, as well as the projects to be supported, needs attention.

I finish with two other points about the new strategy. In the absence of the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, I note that the Commonwealth has hardly featured in today’s debate, as it hardly features in the strategy, where it appears briefly as a potential partner but not really as a priority aid recipient. Within Africa and the Indo-Pacific, I hope the Government will prioritise eligible Commonwealth countries. Secondly, a strategy needs resources to match its ambition. Her Majesty’s Government’s ambition will require at least 0.7% of GNI, so I urge the Government to speed up their timetable and restore the 0.7% spend now.