Brexit: Bank of England Report

Lord Lea of Crondall Excerpts

Thursday 29th November 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

We do indeed need to look at a range of figures. The most reliable measure is what business is doing. Businesses are hiring people, which is why we have record levels of employment; businesses are exporting, which is why we have record levels of exports; and businesses from overseas are investing in Britain, which is why we have the largest stock of FDI in Europe. That is the true evidence that we need to look at.

[Lord Lea of Crondall (Lab)]

My Lords, is it not surprising that someone should say that by using the measure of GDP, which is consistent with the OECD and every other major nation’s measure—one could discuss reconciling income, output and expenditure at some other point—the Governor of the Bank of England is inventing some sort of false crisis? Is it not the case that the charge concerning Project Fear has been replaced not by evidence and forecasting for the future but by decisions by industry, which are now being announced? In Britain, FDI decisions—not forecasts—are down 80%.

[Lord Bates]

The noble Lord has great expertise in economic analysis. He will recognise, therefore, that what we are discussing today is a scenario: it is a tool that is used to assess and stress-test risk. What is being put forward here is a worst-case scenario. I am not a pessimist; I am an optimist and a believer in the best possible outcome. I believe that that is the Prime Minister’s deal, which I hope will be supported.