EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Lord King of Lothbury Excerpts

Friday 8th January 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Lothbury (CB) [V]]

My Lords, for five years, many claims have been made about the economic consequences of Brexit. Unfortunately, I fear that hyperbole has outrun reason. Although none of us can be certain, my own judgment is that the long-run economic effects of Brexit are likely to be small. Just as joining the Common Market did not transform the British economy, nor will leaving the EU significantly change the path of the economy as a whole. The passions aroused by the Brexit debate have been out of all proportion to the likely economic consequences. As a result, for five years we have ignored the real economic challenges facing our country.

Just one example is the need to invest more. In the decade after the financial crisis, the UK invested 16% of our GDP—well below the average for other advanced economies. If we are to invest more, we have to finance that investment, either at home, or from abroad. We are already borrowing heavily from overseas, as reflected in the substantial current account deficit, which has been running at almost 4.5% of GDP. We will therefore need to save more. But in recent years, as a proportion of our national income, Britain has saved less than any other country in the G20—less than Argentina and less than Brazil.

Brexit is not the cause of our economic problems, nor is it the answer to them. With the agreement in place, now is the time to turn our attention to the real problems of the UK economy, and that should be a role for this House in the coming year.