Syria and the Use of Chemical Weapons

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 29th August 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, it is a great privilege to follow the most reverend Primate, who has added further quality to what I think has been a most excellent debate in your Lordships’ House. I could not help reflecting on his point: that for all Saddam Hussein’s awfulness, a measure of religious tolerance existed in Iraq. If one talks about unintended consequences, it is worth remembering that Saddam Hussein had a Christian Foreign Secretary in the shape of Tariq Aziz. There would not be much chance in any of the countries I can think of in that region of such a position being thus held in future in the light of the changes that have happened.

It is common ground in this House that the use of chemical weapons was outrageous. It was an appalling crime, a war crime, a crime against humanity. That is where we start. The question is: what does that lead us to as a conclusion for what should be done? Yesterday, the National Security Council unanimously said, “We cannot stand idly by”. That is quite true, but neither should we rush in without due consideration. We should take every possible step to get United Nations agreement to any action that we take. William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, has said that if we cannot get United Nations agreement, we still have responsibility, but it is how we exercise that responsibility and from what position that concerns me very much.

I am much relieved by what I think to be a more considered and more stately, or steady, approach to the problem than appeared to be the situation a week or two ago. It seemed to me extraordinary after the success of getting Russia, for the first time in this area, to agree to United Nations inspectors going to establish the truth that there was apparently some proposal that we should launch a bombing attack while they were there. There were stories that that was proposed for between today and Sunday. The change of approach seems to me very sensible. There must be every effort to establish the facts: were they real chemical weapons? Questions have been raised about what category they were in, who did it and at what level it was authorised. Obviously, then, the report must come back and must be properly considered in the United Nations. Some have said that that will not do any good because they are not authorised to find out who did it, but let us at least wait to see what they say. Facts may well come out of it which make it pretty clear what the situation is.

If it is a full report and indicates clearly what is likely to have happened—I personally believe it almost certain that the Assad regime was responsible—that strengthens our position in the United Nations, it strengthens our position with the Russians, and we hope then to get a positive Russian response. On Ban Ki-Moon, I must say that there were shades of Hans Blix about his position when he was trying to call for proper consideration. I do not want to dredge up the Iraq invasion and the Iraq war again, but we know about Hans Blix’s difficulty in that situation.

To make a small military point, the threat of force is often a lot more effective than the use of force, which often only demonstrates the limitations on such action. It seems to me essential that if we in the end decide to take action, we can show that we took every possible step in the United Nations to try to get support as further justification because, across the world, we do not have great credibility on this issue. It is no good Vice-President Joe Biden standing up to say, “I am absolutely satisfied”. It is no good Secretary of State John Kerry saying the same: “I am absolutely satisfied”. Many of us remember a very good and honourable man, Colin Powell, being put in an impossible position in presenting evidence to the United Nations which turned out to be quite wrong. It is important that we start with that.

I would then wait to see—the issue has been raised by many—exactly what action can be taken that can precisely target the objective of removing any further threat of chemical weapons. I say that against a background. The noble Lord, Lord Jay, referred to the risk of a certain proportion of missiles going astray. I remember the first Gulf War. Some will remember that that was the first time that laser-directed bombs were used, with incredible accuracy. I still remember that marketplace where one did not go in the right direction and the number of innocent Iraqis whom we killed on that occasion.

I notice the number of people with military experience who have the greatest reservations about this, which should make us think. It should make us think for this reason, too: we are looking at a situation in this region that is as dangerous as one could imagine. It is not just about Sunni and Shia. There are splits within Sunni—there is Sunni, al-Qaeda Sunni elements and a whole range of different people. Somebody told me that this risks a conflagration that could stretch from Beirut to Mumbai. That is wrong. It could go from Mali to Mumbai. We need to look at the state of countries such as Egypt, the threat to Lebanon, Syria, the refugee problems for Jordan, Yemen, the whole area and the Gulf states themselves. Some of their rulers are very worried about the situation. We must be extremely careful, and we must also be careful because it is not without risks to our own country. The statement by young Muslims that car bombs are their cruise missiles threatened us previously when the Iraq invasion took place and when we were advised that there was not necessarily a great risk of terrorism in this country increasing. That was pre-7/7 and the problems that we had. We need to be very careful indeed before we take these actions. We must work as far as we can with the United Nations and use the wisdom, authority and responsibility of Parliament to take this decision. Parliament and Congress have a role to play in this situation.