CPTPP: Conclusion of Negotiations

Debate between Lord Johnson of Lainston and Baroness Wheatcroft

Wednesday 19th April 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Johnson of Lainston (Con)]

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for raising that point. It is clearly important to raise palm oil, and I am sure it will come up in later debates. However, I believe—I am happy to write to the noble Baroness to confirm—from memory that sustainable palm oil imports into this country have risen from about 16% in 2010 to nearly 80% now. The reforestation of Malaysia and its pledges to ensure that it runs sustainable palm oil production have been very much wrought into the discussions we have had with it. All members of the CPTPP are parties to the Paris climate accord, and there is an environmental chapter.

In other areas which were covered earlier in this debate by noble Lords, such as animal welfare, we would like to think that we have actually informed the debate, particularly with countries such as New Zealand and Australia. In both those countries, we have now seen whole new swathes of legislation around animal rights that may even bring their standards to a level higher than our own. That is the sort of concept around the engagement of these treaty negotiations that yields common benefit for all.

[Baroness Wheatcroft (CB)]

My Lords, I share the enthusiasm of the Minister for trying to replace some of the exports lost through Brexit, and I listened to what he said about static targets. However, the Minister for Trade, Kemi Badenoch, said she could not stand the estimate of 0.08% because it was based on “stale” figures from 2014. If that is true, could the Minister explain why his department is using figures that are 10 years old?

[Lord Johnson of Lainston (Con)]

I am very grateful to the noble Baroness for raising this point. Clearly, there will be a lot of discussion around how to measure, if we can, the benefits of a free trade agreement. As I believe I mentioned—I apologise for not being clear enough—these figures are static modelling figures rather than forecasts, so they rely on significant quantities of historic data. It is often a difficult position to be a government Minister at the Dispatch Box when you are reliant entirely upon government figures which do not necessarily chime with the mood music. However, it is important to look at all the different statistics that will give us the information we need to have a sensible debate. This is not a forecast; this is a static model. The forecast, I believe, will be extremely positive, as will the impact assessments. I reiterate again: the experience of New Zealand in simply one of its trade deals was 10 times greater than any model that it had created. That is the sort of statistical analysis I look forward to seeing.