Arctic Ice Cap

Lord Jay of Ewelme Excerpts

Monday 6th December 2010 Lords Chamber

Tabled By

[Lord Jay of Ewelme]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the economic and security implications of the melting of the Arctic ice cap.

[Lord Jay of Ewelme]

My Lords, my interest in the Arctic stems from my interest in climate change. It seems to me to be entirely appropriate that we should be discussing this aspect of climate change, the Arctic, when climate change negotiations are taking place in Cancun. I very much hope, though not with every expectation, that the negotiations in Cancun have a greater chance of success than those that took place in Copenhagen a year ago. By focusing on the Arctic, I do not do so at the expense of the focus that needs to be continued on those who suffer most from climate change, particularly in the poorest countries of the world.

The issue this evening is not whether climate change is happening or who or what caused it. The issue is that change, dramatic change, is occurring in the Arctic with potentially profound implications, including for British interests. The question is whether we are doing enough now to protect and promote our interests in the future. The subject might be less immediate than many discussed in your Lordships’ House, but other nations are reacting to the changes they see or foresee. Our interests are affected too and my concern is that, if we do not take them seriously now, we may well regret that later.

The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth. By 2007, it had lost half the ice that existed in 1950—over one million square miles of ice, roughly equivalent to one quarter of the United States. The result is that the Arctic is becoming more accessible. In 2007 and 2008, the north-west passage was opened for two weeks. In August last year, two German commercial ships, unaccompanied by icebreakers, traversed the North Sea route from Vladivostok to the Netherlands. These routes are substantially shorter than the traditional sea routes from east to west and vice versa. They are, of course, only navigable for short periods and there is always the risk of ice and of atrocious weather in hostile, not-well-charted waters. My father was captain of a naval escort ship which escorted Arctic convoys during the Second World War and his description of conditions in the Arctic were not for the faint-hearted.

These seas, the Arctic Ocean, are not going to become the new great sea route for the world in the next decade, but, in 20 years or so—by which time scientists expect ice-free summers—they might. When they do—and I believe that it is a “when” and not an “if”—will there not be opportunities for maritime nations such as ours? Might there not be scope for developing again some of the great ports of northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland to service the new shipping lanes? Are there not huge opportunities, too, for our insurance companies and our insurance markets? I hope that the Minister will comment on that.

Meanwhile, there is already great interest in the prospect of mineral extraction from the Arctic. Here too, there are risks and opportunities. The risks, of course, are the environmental catastrophes that can follow mineral and especially oil extraction, as we have seen already in Alaska and, more recently, in the Gulf of Mexico. There is at present uncertainty over the likely timescale for exploiting the Arctic; much will depend, as always, on demand, on price and on technology. However, present estimates—and they can only be estimates—are that 13 per cent of so-far-undiscovered supplies of oil in the world, 30 per cent of natural gas and 20 per cent of natural liquid gas, could lie in the Arctic. The Arctic already currently produces about 10 per cent of the world’s oil and 25 per cent of its gas, and those figures seem bound to increase. Here again, the opportunities for Britain companies that are used to operating in some of the world’s most inhospitable zones are great, so what is being done now to maximise their chances of success? What scope will there be for fisheries in our increasingly ice-free Arctic? My understanding is that Iceland, Norway and Russia are already interested in investing in large fishing fleets with an eye to Arctic bounty. What is Britain doing? Is there scope for replacing some of the declining traditional fisheries with fisheries in the Arctic? Will we allow others to gain the advantage here, or will we take it ourselves?

There is significant change under way in the Arctic, with important implications for Britain. It is therefore equally important that we should remain fully involved in international negotiations and discussions about the future of the region. There are many British academic and non-governmental organisations with great experience and expertise and with much to offer others. The British Antarctic Survey, which has an important Arctic dimension and a deservedly high reputation, is one, but intergovernmental co-operation is crucial. The key forum is the Arctic Council, consisting of the Arctic states: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the United States. The UK is an observer and, indeed, an active observer, and rightly so, but there is a move among Arctic states members to limit the role of observer states, including the United Kingdom. Can the Minister give an assurance that we will continue to be closely involved in the work of the Arctic Council, given its importance and our experience and interests in the region?

However, the Arctic Council covers only some Arctic issues, essentially protecting the environment, which is, of course, crucial. Other international organisations have a key role too, for example, the International Maritime Organization, for shipping issues, or the UN law of the sea conference, but other issues, including, crucially, security, are less obviously covered by existing institutions. Sovereignty is not always clear. We all remember, I suspect, the Russian flag planted on the Arctic sea bed a couple of years ago to stake a sovereignty claim. How are territorial disputes linking, for example, to oil fields, to be resolved as the Arctic becomes more widely navigable and exploited?

I do not know how often Arctic affairs have been discussed in your Lordships’ House, but I would guess that they will be discussed pretty regularly in the future, as the significance of the melting of the ice cap becomes more apparent, and with it the important implications for British interests. I look forward to Minister's response.