Syria and the Use of Chemical Weapons

Lord Jay of Ewelme Excerpts

Thursday 29th August 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Jay of Ewelme]

My Lords, much has been said recently in this House and elsewhere about the need to learn the lessons of the past in considering the options in Syria. Of course, the trouble is that the lessons of the past do not all point in one direction. Many will believe we were wrong not to intervene in the genocide in Rwanda. Let us remember that the most recent weapon of mass destruction to be used on a massive scale was the machete. Many will believe that we were right to intervene in Sierra Leone and, although we were lucky that Milosevic fell when he did, in Kosovo. Many, including the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, think that we should have intervened in Bosnia to prevent the massacre at Srebrenica. Many have serious doubts now about military involvement in Afghanistan, although it seems politically inconceivable not to have taken action after the attacks on the World Trade Center.

I believe that most people think that the invasion of Iraq was wrong, and many thought so at the time. I agree wholly with the noble Lord, Lord Wright, and argued in this House for the inquiry into Iraq precisely so that we could learn the lessons. When faced with decisions such as those we now face, it is a tragedy that we do not yet have that report. I think that most people would argue that the intervention in Libya was justified, although it is probably too early to be sure.

It is hard to draw clear conclusions for Syria from this variegated past. The lessons will need to take account above all else of the circumstances in and around Syria, and not of what happened in the past. The key questions are as follows. Would intervention be in accordance with international law? In part that will depend on what the weapons inspectors say and on the conclusions that the UN Security Council draws from their report. However, we need clarity on this, and to be confident in retrospect that, even if things go wrong, we were right to take action when we did. The Attorney-General’s advice is very helpful on that point, but I am not convinced that it is conclusive.

Would intervention achieve its objectives, and are they clear? In other words, how sure can we be that intervention will so degrade Syria’s military capability that it will not use chemical weapons again? The moral case for acting against the use of chemical weapons and other weapons of mass destruction is clear, but we have to be confident, even if we cannot be absolutely sure, that our action will work.

What is the risk of collateral damage? I have no qualms, even after the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, in talking about collateral damage. I recall being told before the Iraq war that US missiles had 95% accuracy, so if 500 missiles were sent, 25 would miss their target. Perhaps they are better now, but one or two missiles hitting a school, hospital or crowded market can shift the moral argument.

Will intervention strengthen or weaken the United Nations? The past decade or so has shown how hard it is to reach agreement in the Security Council. The temptation is to ignore it or to try to bypass it. That temptation is huge but wrong. Surely it must be in our interest, however difficult it may be, to strengthen the United Nations.

Crucially, can we be sure that we can conduct a surgical strike and withdraw? I agree very much with what the noble Lord, Lord West, said. How will other states such as Iran and Israel react if provoked? How will Hezbollah react? Syria is in the middle of a vicious civil war that could only too easily draw others into a regional conflagration, with incalculable consequences for our interests and those of others. The Foreign Secretary said that this uncertainty may last for decades. The noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, spoke about the importance of focusing on our interests. Surely they are to work with others, however difficult that may be, to prevent that conflagration. Such prolonged instability and uncertainty cannot be in our interests, or those of the US, Israel or Russia. That, and helping to solve the appalling humanitarian crisis now engulfing Syria and its neighbours, must be our principal aim in the years ahead.

I cannot see now how military action against the Syrian regime, even if it is legal and even admitting the horrible nature of the Assad regime, will advance our key aims. If anything, the risk is that it will do the reverse.