South Sudan

Lord Jay of Ewelme Excerpts

Monday 26th March 2012 Grand Committee

[Lord Jay of Ewelme]

My Lords, like others I am extremely grateful to the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, for initiating this debate and for her constant concern about Sudan. If she will allow me to disagree with one tiny point that she and the noble Lord, Lord Alton, made, I have a slight hesitation about downgrading diplomatic relations. It always seems that it is precisely when relations get bad that you need an ambassador on the spot, exerting the sort of pressure that needs to be exerted. I have no difficulty at all about taking a very tough line with Khartoum, but we may be able to do that rather better if we have an ambassador there to do it.

As others have said, the situation in South Sudan is dire. That was true before the referendum, as I know from visiting South Sudan. I declare an interest as chair of the medical aid charity Merlin, which operates in Darfur and South Sudan, and which also receives funds from DfID. The referendum provided a ray of hope, but that hope is dimming quickly with the conflict in the border areas, of which others have spoken, the failure of the north and the south to agree on the distribution of oil revenues, and the decision by the south to cut off oil to the north—thereby depriving itself of 98 per cent of its revenues. That decision is, alas, likely to hurt the south more, and earlier, than it will hurt the north.

The result of all those factors is that the prospect of a true humanitarian disaster and serious conflict between north and south, dragging in their neighbours too, is very real indeed. Perhaps I might also say that if that happens, we will find that the press will wake up again to Sudan and ask why we did nothing to stop it when the prospect was so great. So what can we do? As others have said, Britain has a real role through historical links, though an understanding of the issues and through a sizeable aid programme. That programme, focused on humanitarian aid, must continue and if necessary intensify for the south. I hope that the Minister will be able to confirm that that will be the case.

I fear that the old approach built around the comprehensive peace agreement has now had its day and that we need a new approach with new actors. I believe also that the UK’s role, as well as itself helping South Sudan, is to encourage others to do so. For example, the African Union has a role, if not of leadership, at least of providing a neutral forum for negotiations between north and south. The Arab world has a role. The Gulf states have money to help and will not want to see a further disaster in the Arab world. They can exert pressure on the north and I hope that the British Government can encourage them to do so. The EU has a role.

China, in particular, has a real potential influence with both north and south Sudan. Sudan presents a challenge to Chinese diplomacy because it is not quite in the Chinese way of conducting foreign policy to get involved in resolving a dispute such as that between north and south. But China could have a hugely important influence if it did, and I hope very much that the British Government will encourage it to do so and will work with it to do that.

Britain must help with humanitarian aid and must keep up pressure on both the north and the south to avoid a further disaster. But that will work only if it works with and through others, using its influence in the EU, in the UN—particularly at a time when it has the presidency of the UN Security Council—with the Gulf states and, in particular, with China. If, as I say, there is a disaster, the criticism will be that we did not do enough to prevent that disaster when the prospects of that disaster were real.

Finally, I hope very much that Sudan will remain at the top of the Government’s agenda—of their foreign policy agenda and their development agenda—and that the Minister can confirm that that will be the case.