Water Bill

Lord Hunt of Chesterton Excerpts

Monday 31st March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord De Mauley]

My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Grantchester, for his amendment, which would give a formal advisory role to the Committee on Climate Change. I am also grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Krebs, for his offer of help. I absolutely agree with them on the importance of having impartial advice on the latest science, and we of course look to the committee to inform the debate on climate change.

It might be appropriate at this stage to say that I welcome the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is a valuable addition to the international understanding of climate change impacts and which underlines the need to adapt to changing global weather patterns. Adapting sooner will reduce the future costs of doing so. I should emphasise that, although the IPCC report did not focus on individual countries, it did identify three key risks from climate change for Europe, of which flooding was one and water security another. These findings align well with the United Kingdom’s own Climate Change Risk Assessment, published in 2012, which identified that the biggest challenges that the United Kingdom faces will be flooding and water shortage.

As I explained in Committee, I am not clear what the noble Lord, Lord Grantchester, thinks could be gained by requiring the Committee on Climate Change to assess the data provided by insurers, which will be primarily on the pricing of risk, based on the industry’s own sophisticated catastrophe modelling. The numbers of policies eligible for Flood Re will be based solely on the cost of the flood risk component of any policy, which is set by the insurers based on their assessment of the risk. This assessment will change over time and it would not be possible for the committee to provide any estimates without detailed knowledge of industry pricing models. Similarly, the value of the levy and the likelihood of any additional contribution by insurers is based on a number of financial parameters, such as the cost of reinsurance and the amount of levy collected, which will change year on year.

Given their extensive knowledge of the flood risk profile down to the local level, the Environment Agency and its equivalents in the devolved Administrations are the key advisers to government on flood risk and changing levels of risk over time. In England, the Environment Agency leads a dedicated climate-ready support service, conducts the long-term assessment of future investment needs and provides the national assessment of flood risk and flood mapping, which takes account of all types of risk.

If I understand the intention of the amendment correctly, the nub of the concern seems to be that the modelling used to assess the size of the Flood Re pool and the numbers supported needs to be robust and take into account changing risk. Flood Re’s finances also need to be resilient to the inherent variability of annual flood claims and to factor in changing risk over time. The core of this is making sure that Flood Re holds enough capital to be able to cover claims up to the limit of its liabilities. Under European Solvency II legislation, which governs the insurance sector and will be in force from 1 January 2016, all insurance firms will be required to hold enough capital to cover a one-in-200-year level of claims. Therefore, Flood Re will be required under EU law to hold capital reserves at a level equivalent to its liability.

To assess what level of capital is needed, insurers have detailed catastrophe models. The modelling to assess such events must be kept up to date and will reflect any changes in levels of insured risk. This will include changes as a result of climate change. As an authorised reinsurer operating under the requirements of Solvency II, Flood Re will be bound by these same requirements.

[Lord Hunt of Chesterton (Lab)]

When the Minister refers to one in 200 years, that assumes that the next 200 years will not be the same as the previous 200. Things are changing very rapidly. Is this estimate really based on the rapid changes of climate that we are seeing? That is the purpose of referring the matter to the Committee on Climate Change. The committee is much more aware of the dynamical changes than the industry, which is essentially using past, rather static data.

[Lord De Mauley]

My Lords, I agree with the objective that the noble Lord refers to. Floor Re will need to take account of climate change as part of its regulatory obligations in ensuring that it remains solvent over time. We would expect Flood Re to seek the best available advice on climate change and seeking external verification of its assumptions will form part of Flood Re’s operations.

It seems that one of the other concerns underlying this amendment is whether Flood Re is based on the best available evidence, including on climate change. I assure noble Lords that the data and actuarial assumptions underlying the scheme have been independently assessed by Professor Stephen Diacon. In addition, extensive modelling, using a model that was quality-assured by the Government Actuary’s Department, has been carried out by the Government using these data. Flood Re’s modelling will be updated on an ongoing basis.

I again put on the record that Flood Re has been designed to be flexible and will be able to adapt to changing levels of risk over the 25-year lifespan of the scheme. Climate change projections were considered, alongside other risk factors, during the design of the policy, and the effects of climate change will continue to be considered during future levy-setting discussions. The insurance industry, with its expertise in risk assessment and forecasting, is at the forefront of assessing the impacts of climate change, because assessing risk accurately is an essential tenet of its business.