Libya

Lord Hughes of Woodside Excerpts

Friday 1st April 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hughes of Woodside]

My Lords, I join all of your Lordships who have welcomed the policy in Security Council Resolution 1973. I congratulate the Government on putting together such a wide and broad coalition in support of it. I fear that that coalition may be much more difficult to hold together as events develop and as we seek to reinterpret the words of the resolution.

The background of the two resolutions is that they were predicated on the belief in the possibility that Colonel Gaddafi would simply fold his tent and melt quietly into the night. That has not been the case. Indeed, he is digging his heels in rapidly. In passing, the Foreign Secretary may be too optimistic, perhaps even unwise, in describing the Libyan regime as “crumbling” because of the defection of its Foreign Minister. Sometimes we can be too simplistic.

From the beginning, the Prime Minister has clearly said that Gaddafi must go. He has said more recently that there can be no end game until Gaddafi has gone. Those three of four words certainly resonate among the general population, and perhaps the world at large. I will relate a cautionary tale. The Shah of Persia ruled from 1941 to 1979 in what became a more and more repressive regime. Within the country itself and internationally, there was great clamour which coalesced into three simple words: “The Shah out”. I remember calling it out myself; I do not say that that made any difference to the outcome. The Shah went, and what did we get? The Ayatollah Khomeini, and a direct line to where we are now with Iran. I add another cautionary tale. People say, “The democratic process must be owned be the people; the people must decide who they want”. The Ayatollah Khomeini was actually confirmed in a referendum.

The body language is quite clear. We want regime change. There is no doubt about it. I do not know how we can reach a conclusion with only one outcome to this problem. As the situation develops—as there is ebb and flow between the rebel and government forces—we have had to look for new solutions. That begs a question which echoes that of my noble friends Lord West and Lady Liddell: who are the rebels? The US Secretary of State, Mrs Clinton, has said,

“we don’t know as much as we would like to know”,

about the national transitional council for Libya, this 30-strong group representing the opposition. We had better start finding out fast, if we are thinking of arming them. That is making policy on the hoof, which is always very bad.

Besides, what sort of weapons are we going to provide? What is the practicality of that? A few more rifles and automatic weapons will not be of any good. Are we giving them sophisticated weaponry? I do not for one second go so far as to suggest that we try to put tanks in, but even if we provide sophisticated weaponry how is it to be delivered? Who will do the training? Have we got the time for all this to happen? It really does not make any sense at all. What happens if the rebel army does not succeed? Let no one doubt Gaddafi’s determination to win.

If we think the unthinkable—that, perhaps, despite making efforts under UNSCR 1973 to the letter, it looks as though Gaddafi will succeed in not quelling but suppressing the rebellion—what do we do? I fear that the cold logic is that troops will at some stage have to be put on the ground. The resolution makes it quite clear that that is not permitted. The Government, and the Leader of the House, have repeated that. So if we have to go back to the UN on that resolution—back to the prospect of putting troops on the ground—we have to start working very hard with the international coalition, otherwise the whole thing is going to collapse.

It has often been said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. We know that good intentions are involved here, but I fear very much that the outcome might well be a Libya which is no better than that which we have now. In that regard, our demand for humanitarian assistance—which we have to provide—will be of no avail if we do not realise what we are actually going to do. The glaring gap in all discussions about this, in the Government’s policy, and in the positions of the coalition and the UN is that there is no mention of what the endgame is. That has been repeated several times in this House. That is the most important thing.

Events are moving fast. In your Lordships’ House and the other place we are in Recess for almost four weeks. How will the Government keep us informed of what is happening during that period? I am not asking for the recall of Parliament, although that might have to be done; it is a matter for the other place. The Government must be open and transparent, as they have been up to now. I fear that, in the murky reinterpretation of the resolutions, the Government may be falling into bad ways and not living up to what they have done so far.

I end on a slightly optimistic note. There is no parallel and I do not suggest that there is. Regimes and events can change very quickly for the better. I recall that it was thought that the South African apartheid regime was invincible, but within a couple of years it went. We hope that in Libya it will take less time than that. Optimistically, I believe essentially that the power of the people will prevail.