Brexit: Economic Forecasts

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 24th October 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

As far as we are concerned on this negotiation, we want a deal, we expect a deal and we want good, positive relations with our European friends. If it is important that we continue to have access for goods worth £423 billion into the EU, is it not also crucial that it continue to have access so that it can sell us goods worth £518 billion each year? It is in the enlightened self-interest of both parties to reach a deal, and that is what the Prime Minister seeks.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, in dealing with this Question, would it not be best to ask what will happen to the European Union over the next 10 years? Visegrad countries are pulling away, nationalism is growing in many European member states, Italy is considering whether it should leave the European Union, and Greece continues to have difficulties. Would it not be wise for us to work for a modern and completely different kind of European co-operation in the future, which might be better for Europe and us?

[Lord Bates]

My noble friend speaks with great knowledge and expertise in these areas. Of course, one of his points is the one I made right at the beginning: the fastest-growing economies will be outside the European Union. Last year, our exports to India rose by 31% and to China by 15%. Those are significant sums. Not just the UK but the EU needs to wake up to the competition around the world, and to ensure that we have markets that can compete in that new environment.