Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union

Lord Hannay of Chiswick Excerpts

Monday 28th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Whitty. We sit together on the EU Committee and often agree, especially on matters of history and technical reality, if perhaps not today on his latest idea.

I spoke on 9 January about the need to improve the withdrawal agreement. On the assumption that such an improvement would be negotiated, I also talked of the opportunities that we can garner post Brexit. Today I return to the former theme and will also say something about how we should conduct ourselves in the unlikely event that, for whatever reason, improvement proves impossible and we need to proceed with no deal.

The other place, as has been said, voted decisively against the present withdrawal agreement; tomorrow’s further votes are likely to include one requiring the Government to re-enter negotiations and take out or severely limit the life of the backstop. I believe that this can and should be done. We have far more power now than we will have once the withdrawal agreement is accepted. This is partly because acceptance requires only a majority vote in the European Union, whereas the future relationship agreement requires unanimity and votes in Parliaments across Europe. Also, as the Attorney-General has confirmed, if the present withdrawal agreement were accepted, there would be no legal way that the UK could ever unilaterally exit the backstop. My noble friend Lord Bridges said in an earlier debate that no Government should ever have agreed to that concept and I am afraid that I have to agree with him. Vassalage is a colourful term but, to my mind, it would accurately reflect our status if we accepted the current agreement as it is.

Furthermore, the backstop is illogical. We are told that it is designed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Yet, as matters stand, it is the main factor preventing the withdrawal agreement being accepted. Recently, the EU has belatedly acknowledged what has been apparent all along; namely, that if there is no withdrawal agreement there will be a hard border in Ireland at the EU’s insistence. The EU is apparently insisting on the backstop to prevent a hard border in Ireland, while the main factor threatening a hard border is the inclusion of the backstop in the withdrawal agreement. It is a mystery to me why the Government have not been more vociferous in pointing this out.

The major advocates of the backstop are the Commission, the French and the Irish.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

Perhaps the noble Baroness might think again before saying what she said about tariffs: that tariffs being charged on the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in the event of no deal would be because the EU orders it. That is not true: it would be because the World Trade Organization rules require it.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe]

I will come on to talk about tariffs in the event of no deal. Obviously, I was referring to the point that has been made about the apparent change in the Irish position in recent days, which others have already referred to. My understanding is—

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, I had been going to start my remarks by saying, “Here we go again”—but unfortunately the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, got there before me. There is indeed quite a lot that is both tedious and repetitive about the string of debates that this House and the other place have been holding on Brexit. I hope that I will not be thought too disobliging if I say that today’s debate seems to show some traces of metal fatigue. However, the debates and the votes we register are necessary because only Parliament can ensure that the Government do not, perhaps inadvertently, take this country on a course that could inflict considerable loss and suffering on its citizens.

Two weeks ago, by a majority of 169, this House categorically registered that leaving without a deal needed to be rejected. I would like the Government to say—since the noble Baroness the Leader of the House did not say a word about it when she opened the debate —what account they took of that vote when they started to shape up what is described with some irony as plan B but is in reality plan A, rejected by large majorities, in flimsy disguise. I listened carefully to the Leader’s speech and she did not manage to mention plan B at all. Like TS Eliot’s Macavity the Mystery Cat, it has just disappeared. Where has it gone? I do not know—but we perhaps need to know. I fear that the answer to the question of how much account the Government have taken of your Lordships’ majority of 169 is, “Not a lot”.

It is important that the Government face up to reality and admit what the consequences of leaving without a deal would be. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, referred to this and I will refer to it, too. If we leave without a deal, on 30 March we will be required, not by a diktat from Brussels or Dublin but by WTO rules, to apply tariffs on all our imports from the European Union—and EU countries will be required to apply tariffs on all their imports from us. That would apply on the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland as elsewhere. Alternatively, there is one way out, which is that we apply zero tariffs to all our imports worldwide—which would remove all protection from our businesses and our farmers.

It would be helpful if the Government would say which of those choices they would make. It is rather important for businessmen who are already fulfilling contracts that involve trade in these goods. They might like to know whether the tariff will be 10%, 20%, 0% or what. That quandary was admitted by the noble Baroness, Lady Fairhead, at Second Reading of the Trade Bill on 11 September. It was also implicit in what the noble Baroness the Leader of the House said in reply to a question of mine on 21 January. Is that the Government’s view—I would very much like to hear the answer in the winding-up speech by the noble Lord, Lord Callanan—or are we planning to start our life as an independent member of the WTO by flouting its most fundamental rule: the most favoured nation rule? If that is the case, there are even more compelling reasons to rule out leaving without a deal.

It really is no good the Government repeating, as they do frequently, that they cannot single-handedly rule out leaving without a deal. That is entirely correct, of course, but entirely insufficient. The reason is that they could quite easily say, today at the Dispatch Box, that they would do everything within their power to avoid leaving without a deal, and we would all be very happy if they said that. We would recognise that it would require the co-operation of the other member states, but it would be a good start. Frankly, if they still believe that it gives us leverage to go on playing with the trigger, they are in for another bad surprise.

Then there is that date of 29 March, which the Government insist must remain as if it were written on one of the tablets brought down by Moses from Mount Sinai. Do they not understand by now that there is not the slightest chance of being able to meet that deadline? Whatever course of action is taken, even in the eventual case of the Prime Minister’s deal being approved, there still is not time to do it and to pass all the necessary legislation under the withdrawal treaty and the political declaration. Would it not be more sensible to recognise that now and initiate discussion with the European Union about prolongation? Several views have been expressed on its duration and its motivation, and surely that would be a much more sensible course to take. No doubt the Government will be forced to get there eventually, but how much better to do it now and not to inflict more uncertainty and damage on our economy in the weeks ahead.

I hope that a clear message on these two points will go out from this House today. That is why I will support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. I looked at it again just now and really find it hard to believe that anybody could be opposed to the second part of the Motion—although I then listened to my noble and learned friend Lord Brown, who managed to find some reason to do so, which I am afraid I did not follow very carefully—while the first is just simple common sense.