Trade Bill

Lord Hannay of Chiswick Excerpts

2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords
Tuesday 11th September 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Lansley. It is good news that he is back playing an active role in our debates. I say that all the more so because I agree with a large amount of what he just said, but that is not the only reason. The only point I make on what he said is that I think a link with the CPTPP—the Pacific grouping—is of great importance, but it is much more likely to be achieved by the European Union in a more successful way. That is why I support the idea that we should stay within a customs union and negotiate with that objective.

A great deal of the Bill is highly technical and process-driven. The Minister made an excellent effort to persuade us that that was all that it was about, which is not the case, but those aspects require careful scrutiny, and perhaps amendment in Committee and on Report. I intend to focus my remarks today on the broad political thrust of the Bill, which is the imperative view of the Government that this country must have an independent trade policy outside the EU and its customs union—within which this House voted to remain, I recall, as others have done, by a three-figure majority when the issue was discussed in another context.

The contention of those who supported Brexit in the referendum campaign—it since remains the Government’s view—is that an independent trade policy is absolutely vital and that it will be good news for the United Kingdom. Outside the EU and its customs union, Britain, they say, will emerge on to the sunlit uplands of a free trading world, freed of the shackles of the EU’s trade policy with prosperity assured. Negotiating trade deals around the world would be easy as pie—that is what the Secretary of State for International Trade told us, although his assurances were slightly undermined by the fact that he has never negotiated a trade agreement. If only that picture were true the Government would have a case, but it is not. It is, frankly, false.

First, take the EU’s trade policy. It is, of course, not perfect and it has some protectionist features which need to be changed. That is what the EU was attempting to do in the Doha multilateral trade negotiations and in the TTIP negotiations with the US; the EU was not responsible for the failure of either. When the EU was founded, it did have a pretty protectionist trade policy but, over the decades, that policy has been progressively liberalised, not least by the leadership of a whole succession of British Trade Policy Commissioners: Lord Soames, for whom I worked, Lord Brittan, the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, and the noble Baroness, Lady Ashton. Britain, as a member state, was at the forefront of that liberalisation campaign with great success. Now, the results of that campaign, in the form of the European Union’s trade policy, are being denigrated, belittled and cast off. Nor is the EU and its trade policy in any way the only important point. After all, we export only about one-third of the amount that Germany does to China. That is not because we are shackled by the EU but because we are not quite as competitive as the Germans. That will not be solved by leaving the EU or by negotiating separate trade agreements.

There is then the still-growing network of bilateral trade deals that are an integral part of the EU’s trade policy and its customs union: most recently the agreement with Japan, but also those with South Korea—where our exports have hugely increased since that agreement came into effect—Turkey, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, the 50 or so African, Caribbean and Pacific associates, and the countries of eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and the Caucasus. There are negotiations now under way with Mercosur, which hopefully will lead to a successful conclusion, and with Australia and New Zealand. Are we going to do better than those deals that are being handed to us on a plate? Will we do more for developing countries than the EU’s “Anything but Arms” policy? I rather doubt it.

How about those sunlit uplands? Well, the sun is not shining up there any more, as President Trump rampages through the international trade commitments that the United States has, mistakenly believing that trade wars are easy to win and that trade between nations needs to be bilaterally balanced. This is the very antithesis of this Government’s trade policy, yet the US seems to be the jewel in the crown when it comes to our negotiating independently. Some hope.

Then there is China, which has negotiated free trade deals such as the one it did with Switzerland, which gave China tariff free access to the Swiss market straightaway and told the Swiss that, with a bit of luck, in 20 years’ time they might get something like that.

[Lord Lilley]

The noble Lord said in 20 years’ time. Actually, the Swiss deal with China reduces tariffs by two percentage points a year. The high tariffs are 18%, so in nine years they will all be gone. They are already half way through. Where are we, in our membership of the European Union, in the process of getting free trade with China?

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

That remains to be seen, of course. If we were in a customs union, I have no doubt that the issue of freeing up trade between the European Union and China would become a very important point—and, since the Chinese are now being sucked into a trade war with the United States, they might take a rather different view of a free trade agreement with the European Union than they have in the past. I do not know. All I can say is that they are more likely to do so if what they are offered is access to a 500 million single market, with the UK in a customs union with it, rather than what they have at the moment.

Then what will we say to India and Brazil, for example, which undoubtedly will raise with us issues about the visa burden on their students, businessmen and researchers? It is obviously desirable that we should have agreements with Australia and New Zealand, but what will that mean for our producers of sheepmeat and beef, who are already at risk of being struck by the loss of their continental European markets if all does not go well with our negotiations with the EU. What will we say to that?

One day, I hope, when President Trump’s memorial library is being constructed—there will not be many books in it, I imagine—the world will resume the search for multilateral and plurilateral trade agreements to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade. What role will we play in such negotiations as an independent actor with our own trade policy? I can give noble Lords a clue: a very modest one, is the honest answer. I was a very junior member of the negotiating team in the Kennedy round, which was the last occasion on which the UK operated independently before it joined the European Communities. We were in a much stronger position then than we are now. Our share of world trade was much greater and we had a stronger economy on the whole compared with other people. However, even then, in the 1960s, the deals were cut between the US, Japan and the European Community. In future, it will be between the US, China, the European Union, Japan and India. Of course, we will be there on the margins, our eye glued to the keyhole, saying, “Me, too”, when they reach an agreement, but our role will be that of a watcher and not, as we are at the moment, an actor. So the case for an independent trade policy does not stack up. It is a chimera and a mirage, doomed to disappoint.

Of course, if we were to remain in the customs union, we would need to raise some quite important issues with the EU to ensure that we had a proper consultative role in shaping its trade policy and that any trade deals negotiated by the EU applied fully to all members of the customs union, including the UK, and did not require separate negotiation. But how can we find out whether these possibilities are even faintly viable if we are not ready to ask for them to be put on the table and to discuss what the reaction of the other side would be? Since this would greatly help the problems of Northern Ireland, I suspect that it would be pretty positive.

The other day, I heard a representative of one of the think tanks that supports Brexit and an independent trade policy, the IEA, say, quite clearly, that an independent trade policy is “the only prize” remaining from Brexit. But is it a prize? I very much doubt it.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Fairhead]

I am happy to follow that up with the noble Baroness. If I misspoke, I apologise, but I will happily meet with her and follow up afterwards.

I have tried my best in going over 20 minutes to address as many points as I can. I appreciate that there are a number of questions that I have not been able to cover and I undertake to write to noble Lords in detail ahead of Committee.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I thank the Minister for allowing me to speak before she sits down. It is very helpful. Could she clarify the point on Northern Ireland and the interrelationship of WTO rules? If there is no deal—and I accept that that is not the Government’s first choice—then, under WTO rules, we will have no alternative but to place tariffs on imports from the south to the north at the border if we do not want to have zero tariffs to the whole world. Is that the case?

[Baroness Fairhead]

If there is no deal, that would be correct. Clearly there are other options for what to do with tariffs, but that is a correct statement in the limited definition that the noble Lord gave.

Of course, I am happy to meet with any of your Lordships to discuss these matters further and I look forward to the opportunity for more detailed discussions in Committee. A cliff edge in our trading arrangement is in no one’s interest—that is something on which I think we can all agree. The Trade Bill takes a sensible, responsible, reasonable step to prevent this. It places continuity at the heart of our approach, to the benefit of customers, consumers, business and individuals across the UK. I beg to move.