Health Protection (Coronavirus, Collection of Contact Details etc and Related Requirements) Regulations 2020

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Wednesday 7th October 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

I think that my noble friend the Minister would accept that these measures being taken to combat the pandemic have to involve a trade-off with what happens in the economy. If we go back to the original decision to lock down the economy totally in March, if someone had made the point at that stage that it would result in 70% of our businesses shutting down completely for three months with the result that millions of people would lose their jobs—many for the foreseeable future—would we have reached that original decision to go for total lockdown?

I agree that most countries took the view that total lockdown was the answer, but the Swedes did not. The result is that the Swedish economy is forecast to shrink this year by something like 5.5%, while the latest figures are that our economy will shrink by between 11% and 12%—double the rate and double the impact of job losses. That is also true of this measure.

I have only one question for my noble friend. Was a cost-benefit analysis ever carried out before the original measures were taken to lock down the economy totally, and has such an analysis been made on the measures before the House today?