Brexit: Bank of England Report

Lord Grocott Excerpts

Thursday 29th November 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

We do not want to detract from the fact that the Bank of England has a duty to stress-test the economy against a range of possible outcomes. Normally those scenarios are considered in private to inform the work of the various committees of the Bank in reaching their decisions. Perhaps uniquely in this case, they have been made public along with the assumptions which underpin them, as my noble friend has highlighted. However, these are worst-case assumptions. It is right that the Bank should look at a range of outcomes, but it is also right that we should consider other analyses, such as the analysis the Government produced yesterday.

[Lord Grocott (Lab)]

My Lords, in answering the first question the Minister referred to the mismatch between predictions made prior to the referendum about the growth of the economy and what happened subsequent to the referendum—not subsequent to now but subsequent to the referendum. There were numerous forecasts. Will he helpfully put the various forecasts that were made—including from the Treasury and the then Chancellor, for example—in the Library so that we can see the evidence that the Liberal Democrats’ spokesman was asking for and have the facts about the colossal mismatch between previous economic forecasts on this issue and what has actually happened?

[Lord Bates]

We were covering that very point when the Office for Budget Responsibility produced its forecast along with the Autumn Budget. This showed that the forecast made in April about what would happen was underscored, and actually we achieved more. It increased its forecast going forward because it believed there would be more employment, more taxes and less debt.