EU: Recent Developments

Lord Grenfell Excerpts

Thursday 16th February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Grenfell]

My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Higgins. We first debated Britain's relationship with Europe more than 50 years ago at Cambridge, and I am extremely happy that we are still at it.

We have heard many wise words—and a few not so wise—about how to cope with and solve the crisis. I will not add to the substantial body of views that is informing today's debate. Rather, I will look a good way further forward into the future—even further than my noble friend Lord Mandelson did in his magisterial contribution. What I foresee may not happen in my lifetime; but that in no way weakens my conviction that it will come. What I foresee presupposes the EU's survival of the present crisis. That may appear to some to be a risky assumption, but I am and always have been an optimist about our European project. The then Community and the present Union have been through tough times before, though maybe none so testing as today. Less than two months ago we were being told by the media that there were 10 days to save the euro. It is still there. Would the eurozone survive a disorderly Greek default? Very likely it would. Would contagion spread? Possibly it would, but with every day that passes the Union's preparations to counter it become more convincing—and as one commentator said yesterday, the gaps between the dominos are lengthening. So we should not rush to write off the euro, the eurozone or the Union itself. If they emerge battered but intact, as I believe they will, they could also emerge strengthened by an experience that may finally have convinced both members and institutions that Europe now has to be rethought. So, what then might happen?

Some way ahead in the future lies a fully federal European Union. It will take some building, step by step—more purposeful than creep, less precipitous than a leap—but built it will be. First will come the fiscal union and then the political union. The distribution of power between the member states and the Commission will be substantially altered. From a fiscal union which embraces a common economic doctrine a political union will begin to take shape, organised around the existing institutions. The Commission will acquire more competences and act as a Government accountable to a strengthened European Parliament. The European Council of Heads of State or Government will become the Parliament's second Chamber, and in all likelihood a President of the EU will be popularly elected.

I hear noble Lords muttering, “That will never happen”, but if there is the political will to create a federal Europe, it will happen. Not all will want it, but the great majority will probably see it as inevitable in the course of time. To them, more, not less, Europe will seem the logical way forward after a crisis like the present one. Chancellor Merkel is not alone in seeing that as the only way forward. Maybe she will not convince her electorate—on the other hand, maybe she will. I believe that she will. Elsewhere there are straws in the wind. On Monday, France's equivalent of our CBI announced that the creation of a United States of Europe was now a top priority. It is imperative, it said, that there be common economic, monetary, defence and security policies across Europe.

What really convinces me of the inevitability of a federal Europe is the growing feeling among the younger generations of continental Europeans that it is the right goal if they and the generations to follow them are to enjoy peace and sustainable prosperity. I travel a lot in continental Europe and I listen a lot to the young. A small minority are unashamed nationalists, but the great majority want more, not less, Europe. In the face of globalisation and the burgeoning power of countries such as China, India, Brazil and other new economies on the rise, they want a strong, competitive Europe, with effective economic governance, greater solidarity, convergence of values and the more determined pursuit of common goals. I shall give a small example. Just yesterday I was approached by a newly founded group of German students called Euroskop. Next month, a group of them will embark on a tour of 21 European capitals to gather opinions on the future of Europe, and they will be coming here to the House of Lords. Their message is that Europe needs a new narrative. The quest for a shared vision of Europe is being crowded out by the necessary focus on dealing with the present economic and financial crises. All across Europe, protesters are voicing their discontent with the political class. They are asking whether European youth is calling their parents’ idea of Europe into question. What brings these young people together and what separates them? This is the generation that is going to reshape Europe, and what will it look like? My strong hunch is that it will look like a federal Europe, and I hope that that will be the case.

The United Kingdom will probably not want to be a part of that. We may want to stay on the sidelines and find some convenient associative relationship with a federal union—and so be it, though it is not what I would want for this country. I doubt very much that it is what future generations here will want when they see what life is like on the sidelines, but I may not be around to see that. For the time being, I remain convinced that the rest of Europe will embrace the different future that now beckons. I believe that a federal Europe is inevitable—and if I were there, my bow to the inevitable would be one of reverence rather than surrender.