Economy: Update

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Tuesday 28th April 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

I will try to offer some reassurance to the noble Lord. The most important thing to say is that the Chancellor has demonstrated enormous flexibility and dexterity over the weeks of the crisis. As the saying goes, if the facts change, he will change his mind to deal with the emerging situation. I am perhaps a little more optimistic than the noble Lord on the current position; even in the last 10 days we have seen increasing numbers of people going back to work as businesses have responded to social distancing and worked out simple things, such as how to rearrange offices. We are seeing this in the traffic stats of the volumes of people commuting. While I accept that there could be something of a big bang, I am hopeful that it will be more of a gradual return to work. If the noble Lord is right and we see that as an approaching problem, I am confident that the Government will react accordingly.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I draw attention to my interests in the register. I congratulate the Chancellor and Treasury Ministers on the welcome bounce-back scheme, which is a lifeboat to many small enterprises. It shows that we have indeed got a listening Chancellor, in that he has moved very quickly to the representations which have been made. Could my noble friend say what estimate the Government are working on in terms of the numbers of unemployed people they expect to see in the third quarter of this year and how that is related to the length of the lockdown?

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

My Lords, I do not have that figure as I do not believe that that calculation has been made yet. It will depend very much on the timing and speed of exiting lockdown. The sooner we can exit, the less damage will be done, but we must balance against that the Prime Minister’s overriding concern for the health of the nation, not overwhelming the NHS and the nation’s morale if we were to get a bad second spike of the disease. It is a bit too early, but we will of course keep noble Lords informed of our thinking as it develops.