Technology and People: Deloitte Report

Lord Fairfax of Cameron Excerpts

Wednesday 13th April 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Fairfax of Cameron (Con)]

My Lords, unlike some Members in other contexts, I would like to declare an interest today. It is the interest that I have had in this subject for 35 years, including when I first spoke on it when I was in this place before, in the early 1980s. When I was at Cambridge, I had a great and very close friend who worked in the Sanger lab at the MRC. He was a very distinguished young scientist, and we had a bet at the time. As a non-scientist, I was betting against a very sophisticated scientist about whether the Turing test would be passed in our lifetime—Philip and I are the same age. I cannot remember how much we bet, but I bet that it would be, while he, as a very sophisticated scientist, said, “No, there is no way it will be”. There are those who believe that the Turing test has already been passed. I do not know whether it has—perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Rees, will have a better view on this than I do—but it is arguable that it has been passed already. I think that little story says something.

When I spoke 35 years ago in this place on this subject, I was predictably derided by some Members—perhaps too myopic to imagine the future—as a Luddite. Now I am pleased to see that the social and employment effects of the digital revolution are being seriously discussed by serious people, including by some who themselves are at the very forefront of it. I thank my noble friend Lord Borwick for bringing this important subject for debate today and the Government for their thoughtful initial engagement. I do not wish to upset my Whip, but I regret to say that I am not nearly as optimistic as my noble friend. In this regard, I remind your Lordships of the definition of an optimist—some people say it is someone who is not in possession of all the facts. I suggest again that that might be relevant when we are discussing this subject today.

This has been said before, but I am grateful for the recognition that things may be different this time. This is a view shared by several serious commentators, including, I see from the briefing pack, the Economist. I will not detain your Lordships by trundling out too many statistics, but noble Lords will have seen in the briefing pack the threat from the digital revolution and from artificial intelligence—which I do not think, unless I am blind, was mentioned at all in the Deloitte report, which is an extraordinary lacuna in my view. The threat from DR and AI to jobs and social stability is potentially alarming. Some of your Lordships may have read this already, but 47% of US jobs, 57% of OECD jobs, 69% of Indian jobs, 77% of Chinese jobs and 47% of UK jobs may be susceptible to automation. As I think the noble Lord, Lord Rees, and others have said, this of course includes the professions. Indeed there was a recent book on precisely this subject, called The Future of the Professions. It describes the fact that, as other speakers have said, particularly when you have AI that is constantly improving itself, it is not too great a leap of the imagination or a Luddite thought that those professions—not just accountants—could soon become surplus to requirements, in the sense that they will be replaced by artificially intelligent machines. As Henning Meyer of the LSE puts it,

“if only a small part of the well-founded predictions become reality then we are facing the prospect of major political and social upheaval”.

As the briefing pack points out, expressing a view that I share, despite the best intentions and efforts of the Government and businesses—for example, the good page with a lot of detail on it headed “Action for future skills”, on promoting the great importance of education, retraining and worker flexibility—the digital revolution and artificial intelligence bring a real threat of large-scale social disruption. Some fear this may lead to large-scale unemployment or underemployment, and discussion has arisen of the possible need, as your Lordships have heard, of what I believe some people are calling a universal basic income. But who is going to fund this? If the tax base shrinks dramatically, where is the funding for this universal basic income going to come from? Will it just come from the few individuals, companies or corporations who will dominate the world? Your Lordships do not need me to name some of those who have already established a dominant market position.

These are big, serious and challenging questions for the Government, business and workers to confront. I genuinely applaud the Government for starting to engage seriously in this debate. I must be quick, as I see six minutes have gone already, but I will just say a last word about artificial intelligence. This is probably a subject for debate in 30 years’ time rather than now, but if any of your Lordships want to see a snapshot of the future, do view the film “Ex Machina”, because it really gives an idea of where we may be going.