Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Prior of Brampton on 1 February (HL4937), what evidence they have for their statement that the observed evidence of global average surface temperature is not consistent with natural internal variability.
Answered by Lord Prior of Brampton
Evidence that observed global average surface temperatures are not consistent with natural internal variability in the climate system can be found in Working Group I of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5 WGI).
Observations show that global average surface temperature has risen by between 0.6 to 0.7°C since 1951. AR5 WGI concluded that it was virtually certain (>99% probability) that natural internal variability alone could not account for this observed increase in temperature. Amongst other reasons, it showed that the spatial pattern of observed warming differed from that associated with internal variability. AR5 WGI stated that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was extremely likely (> 95% probability) due to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what observational evidence, if any, they have of man-made climate change that is not consistent with reasonably expected natural variation.
Answered by Lord Prior of Brampton
The observed increase of global average surface temperature, increase of mean sea level and decline of snow and ice are not consistent with natural internal variability or the influence of external factors. Conversely, the observed changes are consistent with estimates of the Earth’s energy balance which show that, as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the Earth has absorbed more energy from incoming solar radiation than it has emitted back to space. More evidence can be found in the Working Group I contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Baroness Neville-Rolfe on 12 December 2016 (HL3624), whether the criticism set out in the briefing paper <i>Statistical Models and the Global Temperature Record</i> that integrated models are "not consistent with the notion of a climate that is in a steady state" also applies to linear trend models.
Answered by Lord Prior of Brampton
As detailed in the briefing paper Statistical Models and the Global Temperature Record by the Chief Scientist of the Met Office, neither integrated nor linear models are consistent with a climate that is in a steady state. Further, these methods do not explicitly include any description of the physical processes affecting global temperatures and therefore have limited capability in providing information on such processes.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Baroness Verma on 26 June 2013 (WA139) and the briefing paper by the Chief Scientist of the Met Office <i>Statistical Models and the Global Temperature Record</i>, cited in the Written Answer, in the light of the use of such models in textbooks, as well as in over a hundred research papers, why they consider integrated models for the global temperature series to be inappropriate; and why the linear trend model that is studied in the briefing paper is not also considered to be inappropriate.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
As detailed in the briefing paper Statistical Models and the Global Temperature Record by the Chief Scientist of the Met Office, neither integrated nor linear models incorporate knowledge of physical processes that affect global temperature change. Therefore, for a full picture of the science behind our changing climate, we do not rely solely upon statistical tests to assess changes in climate, but also use our physical understanding of how the climate system works embedded in our physical climate simulations.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what they estimate was their public subsidy contribution to UK wind farms during the period from 24 to 31 October.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
UK wind farms are currently supported under the Renewables Obligation (RO) or Feed-in Tariff (FiT) schemes.
Data for support given to plants accredited under the RO scheme for October 2016 will be available in January 2017 from Ofgem. See link here: https://www.renewablesandchp.ofgem.gov.uk/Public/ReportManager.aspx?ReportVisibility=1&ReportCategory=0
Data for support given to plants accredited under the FiT scheme for October 2016 will be published in Ofgem’s forthcoming annual report. The report does not break spend down by technology or month. The current report for 2014/15 can be accessed here: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2016/03/fit_annual_report.pdf
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the Economic and Social Research Council's process for verifying applications for grants of public funds, in the light of their £9 million grant to the Centre for Climate Change Economics.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is aware of allegations made against the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) and the public responses issued by the CCCEP and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).
BEIS takes its responsibilities to protect public funds very seriously. BEIS has received assurances from ESRC that appropriate oversight arrangements are in place.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government how much energy was consumed by the UK during the period 24 to 31 October; and what percentage of that energy was sourced from wind generation.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
UK electricity statistics for October 2016 are not yet available. They will be published on 22 December at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends. The most recent data to August 2016 is available via that link. Electricity statistics held by BEIS cover monthly consumption and cannot be disaggregated at a daily or weekly level.
However, operationally metered electricity generation for Great Britain (1) is published by the National Grid. For the period 24 to 31 October (8 days), 6.6 TWh was generated or imported, of which 0.3 TWh was generated from wind (5.0 percent) (2). Operationally metered wind electricity generation covers 65 percent of total GB wind capacity.
Source: National Grid
(1) Excludes Northern Ireland, which is not covered by the National Grid.
(2) The source of imported electricity generation is not recorded in these data.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they plan to draw up their own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution as an independent signatory to the Paris Agreement or remain a party to the Joint EU commitment to reduce emissions by 40 per cent below 1990 levels.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
The UK’s commitment to tackling global climate change is firm. Until we leave, the UK will remain a full member of the EU, with all of the rights and obligations this entails.
The UK is a Party to the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change individually as well as through the EU. Once the UK has deposited its instrument of ratification it will be bound by all the obligations of the Agreement under international law.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their estimate of the additional greenhouse gas emissions reductions required to be made by remaining EU member states if the UK is no longer bound by a future Effort Sharing Decision in order to meet their collective 2030 target of a 40 per cent reduction of 1990 levels.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
The UK’s commitment to tackling global climate change is firm. Until we leave, the UK will remain a full member of the EU, with all of the rights and obligations this entails.
We are at the start of what will be a long process of considering options and implications very carefully. However, as long as we are a full Member of the European Union, we will continue to participate in negotiations on EU2030 climate legislation, including the Effort Share Regulation.
Asked by: Lord Donoughue (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether the capital cost of new-build offshore wind farms is rising or falling; and what impact that has had on cost estimates for the level of subsidy provided through the Levy Control Framework.
Answered by Baroness Neville-Rolfe - Minister of State (Cabinet Office)
The Government’s last published levelised cost report shows offshore wind costs have fallen.
Support costs are determined by a combination of the Government’s view of generation costs and by competitive allocation. We expect both of these to further drive down support costs for future projects.
At Budget 2016, we announced that the reserve prices for offshore wind will fall from £105/MWh for projects commissioning in 2021, to £85/MWh for projects commissioning in 2026.