European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Dobbs Excerpts

Friday 31st January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Giddens (Lab)]

My Lords, I am one of those who believe that it is sensible to discuss the content of the Bill, if only because it is a marker, so I should like to return to its substance and talk briefly to the amendments.

If the UK were to leave the EU, it would be the biggest decision that the country had taken for at least 60 years. The idea that its consequence would be a simple retrieval of lost sovereignty is surely ridiculous. The country would have to redefine its place in the world: 60 million people confronting a world of 7 billion. Leaving the EU would not magically open up new markets. The UK would have to go cap in hand to an organisation that it had just spurned to get some kind of trading deal. Its situation would not be at all like that of Norway or Switzerland, which did not join the EU in the first place and were able to tailor deals at an early stage.

That is the backdrop to my support for many of the amendments tabled to the Bill, including Amendment 50. A referendum result that is, in the terms of the amendment, “definitive and beyond challenge”, is absolutely necessary, and all means must be pursued to ensure that it is achieved. There could easily be protracted legal challenges if the Bill is not thought through in all its ramifications—for example, challenges to the extent of the franchise. Many further amendments are relevant to that point.

I have studied referendums all around the world in the course of my academic work and I feel that Amendment 56 is also essential. I lived for quite a few years in California, where the problematic aspects of referendums were very visible. It is vital to insist on a baseline turnout for a referendum of any importance, otherwise decisions, even highly consequential ones, can be taken that do not reflect the will of the people. A minimum of 40% turnout is therefore to me an absolute exigency.

[Lord Dobbs (Con)]

My Lords—

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[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, I rise briefly to point out to the House that the House of Lords Constitution Committee published a comprehensive report on referendums in its session of 2009-10. Its conclusion on thresholds—the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, has commented on 40%—was that:

“We recommend that there should be a general presumption against the use of voter turnout thresholds and supermajorities. We recognise however that there may be exceptional circumstances in which they may be deemed appropriate”.

One of those exceptional circumstances that the committee, of which I was not a member at the time although I am now, had in mind was major constitutional change. I think that there is a general view around the House that the issue we are debating today is one of major constitutional change, and the House may therefore wish to reflect on the advice given by the Constitution Committee at that time.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, another hour, another group of amendments. We have 15 groups of amendments to get through today if we are to reach the end of Committee stage. That is my ambition, so noble Lords will understand if I attempt to be reasonably brief in responding to them.

These amendments go to the very heart of the differences between us. I believe in the Bill because I believe that we politicians have failed the people—it is as simple as that. We have flipped and flopped like a hooked fish dragged out on to the riverbank. I am also in favour of the Bill because I believe that ultimately it is the right of the people to decide their own future. Noble Lords pressing this amendment have an opposite view from me: they believe that Parliament should decide, not the people. In a representative democracy that is an entirely reasonable point of view, except—

[Lord Lipsey (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Lord Dobbs]

I am only a minute into my speech, but of course I will make way for the noble Lord.

[Lord Lipsey]

Last week, when we were proceeding at precisely this pace, the noble Lord said that we were making very good progress, so I think that he might allow a fuller debate today. He has just made a completely unsubstantiated accusation against the opponents of the Bill. Many of us are not against a referendum; I myself am strongly in favour of one. We are against this dog’s dinner of a Bill, which requires improvement by every side of this House.

[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Lord has made his point, again. I think that it is a point that he made last week in Committee and I suspect that we may hear more of it again today. Of course Parliament decides, and we discussed that in Committee last week, but there comes a point when all these nostrums about parliamentary sovereignty require a dose of carbolic and common sense, when we need to find a democratic balance. That balance is not achieved by this unelected House obstructing the clearly expressed view of the other place. Parliament is sovereign, of course it is, but even above a sovereign Parliament there are the people. When the people have expressed their will, it is a terrible thing for any House of Parliament to defy. What British Parliament, as sovereign as it may be, would be unwise enough to turn around to the people and say, “We hear you but we choose to ignore you”?

Noble Lords opposite have taken us around the planet. They have taken advice from Brussels to Washington and have sought advice from Strasbourg and in Japan, yet they are completely failing to convince anyone that they are keen to take the advice of the people. If we pursue these amendments, we are doing only one thing—turning around to the people and saying that their voice, will and instruction are not enough, and that we unelected politicians know better. That is why they are so disillusioned and why we need a referendum to cleanse these stables. If that is the side of the barricade where the noble Lord wishes to take a stand, that is his choice. Otherwise, though, I beg him to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords, with respect, the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, has not addressed any of the amendments or replied to any of the points made in the debate. All that he has done is repeat what he said last week about the right of the people to decide. It is totally inadequate for him to go on repeating that again and again in reply to every amendment. Surely the promoter of the Bill should deal with the points raised in some of the brilliant speeches that have been made.

The defects of the Bill have been coming out thick and fast in this debate. My noble friend Lady Andrews has said that there is no Explanatory Memorandum— why not? The noble Lord did not reply to that. I asked last week why there were no schedules to the Bill. A Bill of this kind, as my noble friend Lord Hennessy will know as an expert in these matters, should have schedules setting out the conduct of the referendum so that we know exactly how it is going to be carried out.

My noble friend Lord Anderson raised a very important constitutional point about what the officials in the Box are here for. Are they officials of the Conservative Party advising the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, or are they from the Foreign Office? We have not had a reply to that. The noble Baroness, Lady Warsi, has not spoken. Last week we got her into some difficulty, but on this occasion either she or the noble Lord the Leader of the House would be welcome to intervene and explain why, if they are Foreign Office officials, they are there.

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[Lord Tugendhat (Con)]

My Lords, I support the amendment put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, for the reasons which he so eloquently set out. However, I will address a few remarks to my noble friend Lord Dobbs. My noble friend seeks to paint those who propose or support amendments as being opponents of the Bill who are seeking to deny the people of this country a referendum. However, that is not true. As I made clear in my speech at Second Reading, and again last week—

[Lord Dobbs]

I have never made that allegation. I have always accepted that there are men and women of great principle who are fighting the Bill from responsible positions. However, I have taken the advantage of pointing out—and others may conclude this—that some noble Lords may well oppose the Bill not for responsible, sensible and principled reasons but because they are simply determined to kill it. I have never whitewashed the entire opposition in the way my noble friend suggests.

[Lord Tugendhat]

My noble friend used the word “oppose”, but I do not oppose the Bill, and neither do I oppose a referendum. I have made it quite clear, as have other noble Lords, that I support a referendum on the basis put forward by the Prime Minister in his Bloomberg speech. It is precisely because I support a referendum that I believe that the terms of that referendum need to be as good as we can possibly make them. This will be a very important referendum—all noble Lords agree on that point. Therefore, if it is to be a very important referendum, the terms on which it is held have to be drawn up as carefully and objectively as possible. Because of that, it is very important that the people of this country should be able to make an objective choice based on as much information as possible. That must mean that they should be able, as far as possible, to balance the advantages and disadvantages of membership of the European Union against the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed new relationship.

I do not often invoke the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, but on this occasion I will do so. He points out, very frequently, that if we leave the European Union, there will still be trade between us and the European Union, and we will still deal very closely with it in economic matters. Of course he is right; one must not overstate the consequences of staying or leaving. However, it is undoubtedly the case that if we leave, the terms of the relationship will be different. Some people may think that they will be better, while others may think that they will be worse, but the British people need to be able to form a view based on as much information as possible. That is the purpose of this amendment, and I support it because I wish the Bill to be a better one.

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[Lord Giddens]

I have not heard a single noble Lord object to the content of this amendment. The only one seems to be the “ram it through at all costs” objection. Could not the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, simply accept the amendment at this point?

[Lord Dobbs]

Of course I could but quite clearly I am not going to. It would deprive us of hearing the noble Lord, Lord Kinnock.

[Lord Kinnock (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord. Although I endorse entirely the appeal made by my noble friend Lord Giddens and indeed others, I suggest to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, that he could accept this amendment, and he could do it with the approval of the Prime Minister. My authority for claiming that comes from no less a source than the Bloomberg speech, which I am now quoting so frequently that I am beginning to think of it as the Bloomberg bible.

In that speech, the Prime Minister was very clear—indeed, commendably clear—that:

“If we left the European Union, it would be a one-way ticket, not a return”.

That is a very sobering thought and a very grave proposition. To his further credit, the Prime Minister was balanced in his treatment of the issues in much of that speech. He said, quite correctly, that:

“Britain could make her own way in the world, outside the EU”.

He then, in a very balanced way, went on to say:

“But the question we will have to ask ourselves is this: is that the very best future for our country?”.

He said that of course we,

“would be free to take our own decisions … But we don’t leave NATO because it is in our national interest to stay and benefit from its collective defence guarantee”.

The only question that I would pose to the Prime Minister and to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, on this aspect is: how free would we be to take our own decisions?

In a further balancing item, the Prime Minister responded to such a rhetorical question by saying:

“If we leave the EU, we cannot of course leave Europe. It will remain for many years our biggest market, and forever our geographical neighbourhood. We are tied by a complex web of legal commitments”.

He continued:

“Even if we pulled out completely”—

and I do not see that there is any other option other than a complete pull-out, given what the Prime Minister said about it being a one-way ticket—

“decisions made in the EU would continue to have a profound effect on our country. But we would have lost all our remaining vetoes and our voice in those decisions”.

If the Prime Minister was willing to say that a year ago in the Bloomberg speech and to spell out the implications of our departure, what conceivable resistance could there be to accepting an amendment that would make it mandatory to provide an assessment of the United Kingdom’s intended relationship with the European Union in the event of withdrawal? In fact, on this occasion I am being as uncharacteristically helpful as I possibly can be to Mr Cameron. Maybe one day he will reciprocate that.

Of course, the question remains: how free would we be to make our own decisions? This House will know that if the search is for sovereignty, then the definition of sovereignty as the power to make effective decisions must be predominant in our minds. Outside the European Union in the world of the 21st century and beyond, we have to wonder how a medium-sized economy with a population of around 60 million, abutting the world’s biggest single market, would fare if we had to conduct our own relationships individually—dare I say unilaterally?—with emerging and emerged global powers. How would we fare in terms of resolving the crisis of the environment or in terms of combating international crime, were it not for the fact that inside the European Union we can exert substantial influence on the direction of affairs and on the nature of international relationships in an increasingly complex and interdependent world?

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[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, there is a government view on membership of the European Union, which is that the UK’s interest is to be a member of a reformed European Union. There are also agreed government views on how to run a referendum, following the alternative vote and Scottish independence polls. However, there is no collective position on holding a membership referendum and hence no government view on its implications. Noble Lords can be assured that, by the time of the referendum, the official yes and no campaigns will have made their cases in some detail. Therefore, the British people will be in no doubt about the choice that they are making.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, this has been another lengthy debate and I do not wish to prolong it. First, I will just respond to a point that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, made earlier. I assure him that I have never sought and never been given, so far as I am aware, any advice from a government official for this debate other than factual advice or advice about the Government’s agreed position. I believe that all the proprieties have been maintained, as they ought to be.

It is unthinkable that people would not be fully supplied with responsible information before any referendum campaign. There may of course be plenty of irresponsible information too, but that is the stuff of politics. It is nobody’s intention to ask people to vote on such a fundamental issue when they are not fully briefed and fully aware of what the issues are. No one can expect people to come to a rational and reasoned decision—as we would want them to—without the appropriate information.

However, it is very difficult to see what this amendment would add that is so very different from the amendment that the House carried last week in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Roper, which called for,

“an evidence based assessment of the impact of the United Kingdom ceasing to be a member of the European Union”.

I argued against that amendment, simply on the grounds that people would get all that information anyway and that it was not necessary to include those provisions in the Bill. The House decided otherwise and passed that amendment calling for an evidence-based assessment of the impact of the United Kingdom ceasing to be a member of the European Union. I am genuinely puzzled therefore as to the need for this amendment.

Again, the wording is important here. It asks about our “intended” future relationship with the EU. As it seems likely that, under most circumstances, all the major parties will be campaigning for us to stay in the EU, the question is: the outlines of this future relationship as intended by whom? How can this task be completed? By consulting UKIP? The only sensible way to seek a response to the question of how one intends to get divorced—which I think was the phraseology of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull—is to ask those who actually want to get divorced in the first place. Any plan B drawn up by those who do not believe in it, will not be arguing for it and have no intention of pursuing it would not be worth the paper that it was printed on.

The noble Lord, Lord Liddle, suggested, in defence of this amendment, that we should do what the Labour Government did for the euro by making their intended position clear. If that is the example he expects us to follow, I am not in favour of it. It was the most bizarre approach that any Government have taken to such an important issue and points to the difficulty of an intended position on something of this sort. The suggestion that underpins this amendment is really rather woolly. It is ambiguous and therefore I think that it is flawed. That is why I oppose it, which is perhaps why a very similar amendment was defeated on Report in the other place by a majority of 265 to eight. The noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, has come up with an interesting constitutional principle that a clear vote in the other House does not reflect the view of that House, but we will pass on from that.

This is not a Bill for those with closed minds, and there are closed minds on both sides of this issue. This is a Bill designed to give those with common sense an opportunity to come to an informed position as to what they intend for their futures. If the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, will forgive me, I do not intend to follow him up the Swiss mountains or sail along the Norwegian fjords. The Prime Minister does not want that; I do not want that; this is another argument that seems to be constructed in order to knock it down that I can see very few people putting. I shall certainly not be following the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, in the magnificent tour that he gave us around every part of the world. The argument that we need to specify even more than we have done under the previous amendment and that we need to load the people with more information, not as a result of democracy or of our campaigning skills and our passionate beliefs in where we stand but on the face of a Bill because the Government require it, implies a huge lack of faith in the ability of the different sides in a referendum campaign to put their case. I do not share that lack of faith. I cannot see what this amendment would do that the amendment that we passed last week—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord for giving way, but I am afraid that he is yet again caricaturing the supporters of this amendment. On the day after a referendum, whatever the result has been, it will not be for the protagonists of staying in or for the protagonists of leaving the European Union to define Britain’s future relationship if the vote has gone for a no; it will be for the Government to do so. The amendment would require the Government to set out what the relationship might be if there was a no vote. That cannot be left either to the yes campaign or to the no campaign.

[Lord Dobbs]

If the noble Lord will forgive me, that is not what the amendment seeks. It is not about what the relationship might be; it is about what that relationship is intended to be, which is a very different point. That is the point on which I suggest that this amendment is flawed.

It will come as no surprise to the House to know that I do not share the enthusiasm of those who do not believe that all this information will come out in an adequate referendum campaign. I regard this amendment as being entirely unnecessary. I believe that it is ambiguous and flawed, and that no one can come up with a suitable intended relationship in those circumstances. I therefore request the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Turnbull]

My Lords, this has been another hour and a half—but I do not begrudge that—of very interesting discussion. I am grateful to noble Lords who have spoken, overwhelmingly in support of the amendment. There are certain common themes. First, we are faced with a momentous decision. That was made very clear by the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, in his intervention during discussion on the previous amendment. Secondly, the matter is immensely complex. I am particularly grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, for giving us a sight of the trade implications and for making the link with the Electoral Commission in that one has to understand not only the question but the implications of the question. It was also agreed that we as a Parliament and supporters of democracy owe it to the electorate to give the best possible information on which to make such an informed decision. Of the arguments against, one was that such an assessment was unnecessary because it was going to happen anyway. I think that our debate yesterday showed a Government campaigning for a change and not making preparation for plan B. The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, argued that it was inconceivable that such an assessment would not be supplied. If it is inconceivable, what is the harm of putting it in the Bill? More importantly, however, the noble Lord said that we should rely on the arguments coming forward from the yes campaign and the no campaign. Each of those documents will be partisan, because they will try to make a particular case, whereas the assessment required by the amendment would establish some factual ground.

What is the difference between this amendment and the amendment passed last week? The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, made this clear. It falls exclusively to the government of the day to make the assessment. They will have to cope with the consequences of a no vote and they should set out what they think those consequences should be.

It was asked why we should not have a similar document on the consequences of a yes vote. There are two reasons why I have not included that in the amendment. The first is that the Prime Minister has promised us his view of what the consequences of a yes vote would be after a renegotiation. The second is, as was perceptively pointed out by the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Stamford, that there is an asymmetry of information. A lot more will be known about being in and staying in than about moving out and something is needed to rectify that imbalance.

I lived in hope that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, would accept the proposal from the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and others. I hoped that he would accept the principle of it and come back with something better. He complained that this is not a perfect amendment. He has had the opportunity to take it away and improve it but he has decided to spurn that. On that basis, I do not think we can take this argument further.

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[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, first, I take the point about Gibraltar. The drafters of the Bill had not chosen to distinguish between Gibraltar and the Channel Islands. The drafters of the Bill did not include Gibraltar; that was included at the express request and instruction of the other place. The situation of the Channel Islands was of course discussed in the other place. There are of course constitutional differences between the two but I will, of course, take that away and we will be in touch.

I apologise to the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, if he thinks that I have been in any way deficient or impolite in dealing with the points that he made in the previous Committee sitting. He raised the point then that he would be bringing the issue of timing, for instance, up on Report, and I was hoping to get a sensible time between Committee and Report to discuss exactly those matters with him. That was my intention; if I have not been prompt enough in dealing with that, then I apologise. It is certainly not my intention to turn my back on sensible points so responsibly made.

I hope that those noble Lords with their names to the amendments in this group will forgive me if, once again, I say that they are unnecessary. The rules of conduct for most polls, including general elections, are set out in secondary legislation rather than in an Act; that is the custom. The appropriate, nuanced arrangements—I hope that they will be nuanced, the term that the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, so sensibly used, because one has to be sensitive to the differing circumstances of the time—are taken care of in Clause 3. Clause 3 stipulates that the arrangements will be based in due course on the published recommendations of the Electoral Commission, which will come back to the House at an appropriate time.

[Lord Roper (LD)]

My Lords, in many cases, they have been in schedules to proposals for referendums. This time, they will merely come back as a statutory instrument, which this House will have no chance of amending unless a subsequent amendment to the Bill is accepted.

[Lord Dobbs]

The noble Lord is entirely right—they will come back to this House, which is the point I was making, although they may not come back in the form that he would like. However, nobody is trying to avoid ensuring that the arrangements for counting these votes are satisfactory. This should not be a divisive matter. Why do we need to specify at this stage how the votes should be counted? The point I make time and again—perhaps in response to the position of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr—is on the cost of accepting these amendments. If this debate were entirely among rational, reasonable men and women who simply wanted to come to an agreed conclusion, then of course there would be very little cost. However, let us be real. We know what is going on in this House, in the corners and dusty corridors of this place. Some noble Lords will not accept the Bill under any circumstances. We read about that in the press all the time, particularly in the Guardian, which appears to be particularly well informed of what goes on in those corners. Therefore, I cannot simply say that of course I can accept any reasonable amendment if the consequence of adding those amendments to the Bill—which has to go back to another place, which has already spoken so clearly about the Bill—will be not a new way of counting the votes but no votes being counted at all. That would be a tragedy, and I am trying to avoid it.

The noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, has always been a great tribune of the people, if I can put it that way—of the Scottish people. Most recent opinion polls in Scotland show very strong support for a referendum: 3:1. Those same people had the common sense, time after time, to send him back to Westminster as the representative of his constituency of Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. They were persuaded by him then, and I see no reason why they should not continue to listen to his entreaties and be persuaded by them in a referendum. All I am trying to do, above all, is to make sure that the Bill does not founder because so many baubles are added to the Christmas tree that the entire tree collapses. The noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, is no timorous wee beastie who runs from the sound of gunfire. He is a man who has always shown confidence in his cause, and I want him to be able to put his cause out there in public on the matter of the EU. It is in that spirit that I say that this amendment is unnecessary and I beg him to withdraw it.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I moved the amendment in respect of Gibraltar—

[Lord Dobbs]

I beg pardon of the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, if I overlooked him. I think we have never gone into the same Division Lobby, but have always parted company with a smile and good grace, and I hope that that will continue. I apologise if I overlooked him in the tributes that I was so eager to pay to the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

That is the story of my life and of Gibraltar. However, I hope that the noble Lord will recognise me and my noble friend Lord Wigley as tribunes of the people of Wales in the same way. As the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, said at the beginning, this problem would not have arisen if there had been schedules to the Bill with that set out, but the problem the noble Lord, Lord Roper, mentioned, has arisen. Apparently the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, fails to recognise that we are now in a new context because amendments have been passed—two last Friday and one so far today. The speed and the pressure have gone, so he should have a spirit of looking carefully at how the Bill might be improved.

As regards the people of Gibraltar, it is clear that there could be very serious problems for our good friends on the Rock if the UK was to withdraw, so they have a very proper interest in this. It is therefore a matter for reflection as to whether to ensure not only that their votes are counted but that the position of the Rock is seen to be clear. I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, and his advisers, whether they are in the officials’ Box or wherever, will make time for reflection so that we can find common ground. This is in no way partisan; I am very ready to accept that there is strong support for Gibraltar throughout this House. Therefore although I will withdraw this amendment I hope that it will give an opportunity for reflection by all those of good will.

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[Lord Liddle]

My Lords, I will be very brief on this point, but my noble friend Lord Williams has raised an issue of fundamental importance with this amendment. It covers the role of the devolved Administrations, their views on EU membership and how those views are communicated to their electorate, and the risks that this whole venture poses to the union we care about most, the union of the United Kingdom. I care a lot about the European Union but I care even more about the union of the United Kingdom.

[Lord Dobbs]

Can the noble Lord clarify whether, when he says that this venture poses risks, he is talking about the Bill or a referendum as a whole?

[Lord Liddle]

I am talking about an “in or out” referendum, which this Bill is designed to generate in quick time. It is quite possible that the different parts of the UK will vote in different ways. As I said at Second Reading, the risk is that independence is defeated in the Scottish referendum this autumn, but that an EU referendum in which Scotland voted to stay in and England, by a majority, took the United Kingdom out would just reignite the whole argument about Scottish nationalism once again. The Government have to think very seriously about this problem. I quite accept that it is not easily dealt with through amendments to this Bill, but it is a very serious issue for the future of the UK.

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lords, Lord Williams and Lord Wigley, for the way they introduced this very important issue—there is no denying its importance. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, himself readily acknowledged that the amendments go beyond the scope of this very simple and very narrow Bill, and the technical answer to them is that the UK’s relationship with the EU is not a devolved matter. However, that of course is not a sufficient answer to the points that they made.

Amendment 55 is a probing amendment, which has been put in a dignified and detailed matter, and I want to try to deal with it in that spirit. I have specific concerns about the amendments. The logical consequence of this group of amendments would be to raise at least the possibility that some parts of our United Kingdom might be denied the opportunity to vote. It would render a national referendum pointless because of the involvement of devolved parliaments, which I am sure is not the intention of the noble Lords who tabled these amendments at all. Noble Lords have waved the flags of the various constituent parts of our United Kingdom with pride, and I congratulate them on that. They have raised useful points which we should all be sensitive to, such as the possibility of Northern Ireland and the Republic being on opposite sides of the fence. It is a very serious, complicated issue. However, along with all the other issues that have been raised, that is fundamentally a political challenge. They are not ones that we should try to anticipate by an analysis, no matter how acute and insightful, of various hypothetical situations at this time.

The issue was raised of the possibility—indeed the necessity—of trying to pre-empt the outcome of the Scottish referendum, in case Scotland voted for independence. In the event of that very sad decision of Scotland to leave the United Kingdom, all sorts of new arrangements would need to be made, and the arrangements required for this Bill would be part of a much more complex bundle.

[Lord Wigley]

The noble Lord touches on a fundamental here. The implication of what he is saying is that if Scotland voted for independence it would undermine this Bill because of the complexity of issues that would arise. Surely that is not his intention. By accepting the amendment in my name, he would have the flexibility to deal with it.

[Lord Dobbs]

As I have said, I think that the issue would go far beyond the scope of any one single Bill. He and I, I hope, will be fighting on the same side of the barricade in order to retain the United Kingdom which we both value so highly.

The noble Lord, Lord Williams, said that he cannot even imagine what our responses would be in various situations. That is precisely the point: we cannot imagine them. We should not therefore try, because, in trying to do so in the form of legislation, we would inevitably get things wrong. I certainly do not think that we need to make that effort at this stage. In that spirit of understanding, I ask that the amendments be not pressed.

[Lord Williams of Elvel]

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs. As I said, this was a probing amendment, intended simply to raise the problem as I saw it of how to involve the devolved Administrations in this referendum, because at the moment there is no mechanism for them to be involved. After all, they will be affected and they are elected by their own constituents to their assemblies or parliaments. I hope that the noble Lord has taken that on board. I hope that the Government have done so, too, because, if it comes to implementing the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, this will be one of the issues that will be addressed by the Government at that point. However, in view of the sympathetic response from the noble Lord, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Lord Dobbs]

Have your Lordships finished? This, of course, is a very simple amendment, but the discussion has shown that the issue is far from simple. The amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, would change the franchise for parliamentary elections to that of the local government franchise. The noble Lord wants to extend his net as widely as possible, but my noble friend Lord Teverson has indicated what muddy waters we swim in.

This amendment is far from simple on its own merits. For instance, by my reading of it, it would deprive British citizens abroad who are on the parliamentary register, but do not qualify for the local authority register, of their vote in this referendum. I know I will be told that there are later amendments that would correct that deficiency but it shows again that this is not a simple question. The issue of the franchise in all its possible forms was given detailed scrutiny in the elected Chamber, and that Chamber voted for the proposals set out in this Bill by a huge majority. It is not as a result of lack of study of this issue that we are where we are.

As has been said on several sides, there is no clear precedent for how we should set the parameters. That is what we are talking about—setting parameters and drawing a line. As a Parliament we have never come to a common, agreed set of conditions for votes in a referendum. Every referendum Bill that has gone through this Parliament seems to have had different conditions and different electorates attached to it. There are no precedents. It seems to me that the question arises: why should we give those groups whom we deliberately deny, for good reasons, the opportunity to express their views in a UK parliamentary election, a vote in our EU referendum?

I am not sure that there is any EU country which allows citizens of other, foreign countries the right to vote on issues which are entirely national. No matter how much those from foreign countries, from other EU countries, might contribute to our country, culture and society, that does not give them the automatic right to take part in all of our elections. When it comes down to it, in these muddy waters, it seems that one has to draw a line somewhere. The only sensible line is that the future of Britain lies first and foremost in the hands—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord for giving way, but he seems now to be in the process of rejecting all of about the next five sets of amendments before we have even got to them. That is a little impetuous, if I may say so. He is also ignoring the fact that of all those who have spoken in this first debate on the franchise, not one has supported the position in the Bill. It is the least justifiable of them all.

The noble Lord is of course quite right to say that some of the variants down here, including the one we are debating now, have complications about them, as the noble Lord, Lord Teverson, said. All that is being asked of the noble Lord is that he could take all these franchise issues away and think again in light of the fact that he has got the wrong one in the Bill. He has expended his eloquence, which is considerable, on this House in favour of people who are affected by this decision having a say, and now he is busy excluding several millions of them. British citizens who live in other EU countries will be deeply affected by this, and they are not going to have a say at all. European Union citizens who live here will be deeply affected; they are not going to have a say. It would be best if the noble Lord were to reflect a little more on this before dismissing out of hand all the amendments on the franchise that have been moved.

[Lord Dobbs]

I thank the noble Lord for his advice. I was hoping that he was going to get up and give me another example of a European country that accepts, on purely national issues, the right of foreign citizens to vote. There may be, and I would like to be able to examine those precedents.

[Lord Richard]

Would the noble Lord like to examine the situation of the Irish of this country?

[Lord Dobbs]

My Lords, they are included on the parliamentary register if they apply. This is the register which has been chosen, not by chance. The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, says that this is the worst possible register. It is not; it has been debated time and again. It is the register that we choose in our country as the standard for these issues, and have done so for many years. I do not see why the noble Lord should suddenly come out and decide that democracy as we have practised it in this country suddenly ought to be thrown out of the window.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I did not say that it was the worst possible measurement for any election. I happen to support the rules that we have for our national parliamentary elections, and will continue to do so. I merely said that it was the worst possible one for this referendum.

[Lord Dobbs]

I am suggesting that we have seen that these are muddy waters. We have to draw a line somewhere. Where is that line to be drawn? We clearly all have a different view on that but, as the sponsor of the Bill, I believe that where the line ought to be drawn is very clear. The future of Britain lies primarily, first and foremost, in the hands of British voters; not the citizens of other countries, no matter how friendly they are, how much they might contribute to our welfare or how much we enjoy them being here.

I therefore conclude that there is no need to change the provision in the Bill and that it is entirely acceptable. Indeed, it was accepted by an overwhelming majority in the elected House. I therefore suggest to the noble Lord that the case that he made, however cogently and politely, has not succeeded, and that it will not succeed in the world outside. The noble Lord is already writing headlines for the Daily Mail, which has a lot of readers—and on this issue they may well, just for once, be right: the future of this country lies in the hands of British voters, not other voters. I therefore ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

[Lord Shipley]

My Lords, I am grateful for the depth of this discussion, and in particular to the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, for giving such a clear exposition of the position. To respond to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, the issues around the parliamentary franchise are covered in amendments we have yet to debate, notably Amendment 59 and others.

[Lord Dobbs]

On that point, it would have been very helpful if these had been grouped together; we could then have had a comprehensive discussion rather than an elongated and fractured discussion on the issue.

[Lord Shipley]

The point is taken; perhaps we can do that on Report, because no doubt we shall discuss this again in great detail at that stage. I will say, in response partly to my noble friend Lord Teverson and also to my noble friend Lord Dobbs, that we have to think through the question: is this only for British citizens? If it is, citizens of the Republic of Ireland would have to be excluded, in which case my noble friend Lord Dobbs would have to amend the Bill because the relevant clause is out of date on the basis of what he just said. Is this for British citizens or for all those who will be directly affected by the outcome? In moving Amendment 57, I said that a change needed to be made because those who will be directly affected by the outcome should have a vote. That same principle will apply when we get to Amendments 59 and 63, and others later in the debate. For the moment, I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.