Inflation

Lord Darling of Roulanish Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Darling of Roulanish (Lab)]

My Lords, we live in strange political times. I find myself in complete agreement with everything that the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said. I think that I speak for the rest of the Economic Affairs Committee in acknowledging his skill as a conciliator—the House will be very familiar with that—which has enabled us to produce not just this report but a number of others, which I hope will be of value in decision-making as and when the next Government are formed. Before I proceed, I draw the House’s attention to my entry in the Register of Lords’ Interests: since the report was produced, I have become a trustee of the International Valuation Standards Council, which some might consider relevant.

The debate is essentially about the role of the UK Statistics Authority and, bluntly, what it is for. It is also about the integrity of statistics and the trust in institutions. For a long time—indeed, a number of decades—there has been a move away from Governments deciding things that can be controversial towards putting them in the hands of independent agencies or organisations, such as the UK Statistics Authority. This will work only if they show that they are truly independent and are acting in the public’s best interests so that we can maintain confidence.

Inflation matters, as the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, pointed out. The rate of RPI and how taxes are indexed affects how much millions of people pay, whether on their fares, whether they are students, and so on. It is not only a technical issue; it matters a great deal to the well-being of millions of people in this country. That is why it is so important that we have confidence in the Statistics Authority. As the noble Lord said, nowhere in the 2007 Act—which set up the United Kingdom Statistics Authority, made it independent and gave it responsibility for the maintenance, integrity and accuracy of the statistics—does it say that it should consider other matters, as he said that its chairman told the committee. We find that difficult to understand because, for this authority to work, it has to be independent.

The 2007 Act not only requires high standards of stewardship but specifically gives the authority responsibility to compile and maintain the retail prices index, which the authority and everyone else agrees is defective at the moment. It is flawed—and has been so for almost 10 years—yet apparently nothing is going to be done about it. It is worth labouring the point that, at a time when it has become fashionable to denigrate experts and trash institutions, to find an institution such as this inflicting harm on itself is deeply depressing. The only way this authority will command respect is if it recognises that a mistake has been made or that there is a flaw in the statistics, and does something to put it right.

The authority knows that RPI is flawed. It refers to the RPI as a legacy matter—some legacy; it is being used, day in, day out, to calculate people’s entitlement—and that it is not a good measure of inflation. There have been arguments about this for the past 100 years or so but in this case since 2010, because of the methodological point raised by the noble Lord, we know that the inflation measure is higher than it would otherwise be. As I have said, this is not just an academic issue because it matters to people.

The authority has also said it wishes to discourage the use of the RPI. If that is its ambition in life, I am afraid that has failed as well. Members of the public think the RPI statistic is the main measure of inflation. It is better known than the CPI, let alone the CPIH, which is hardly known at all outside a narrow field of public opinion.

It is vital for the Statistics Authority to reconsider its position. When the chairman said to us that there is no point in going to the Chancellor because he will say no, that is to completely misunderstand the authority’s position. It is there to act in the public interest and to say to those who are elected—the Chancellor of the day—that they need to do something about it. They should not just assume—I suspect it is an informed assumption, in the usual way—that such a recommendation would not be welcome. None the less, it needs to be dealt with. As a former Chancellor, I am aware that if I were the Chancellor of the Exchequer I would probably find it unwelcome. However, having received other things that I felt unwelcome in my time in office, I do not see why I should treat this one any differently. You have to get on with it. Frankly, it does not do the Government’s reputation for policy-making and making decisions any good to carry on with a procedure that we all know is fundamentally flawed.

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, eloquently made the point that many gain from this—if they hold government gilts they are gaining handsomely—but many other people are losing. Sooner or later they will wake up to the fact that they are losing and will continue to lose unless something is done about it. I appreciate, too, that there will be a cost to the Exchequer if this is to be done too quickly—although I have read the utterances of the two candidates now vying to be the next Prime Minister, and fiscal rectitude does not appear to be the order of the day. They may have a more open mind than I might have had as to how much money they are willing to spend, as there does not seem to be any constraint on that at the moment.

The committee has raised an issue of great importance, in outlining not only the practical results of a flawed RPI but the more fundamental question that, if Parliament decides to put these matters into the hands of an independent authority, unless that authority exercises its judgment, does what is right and what it is required to do in the Act of Parliament, one is bound to ask what on earth is it for.