Brexit: UK-EU Relationship

Lord Craig of Radley Excerpts

Thursday 1st December 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Craig of Radley (CB)]

My Lords, one issue, little debated, is a presumption in discussions about Brexit that the EU is a known, unchanging quantity—an edifice of predictable structure. Is that so? Preparing for promotion exams way back in the 1950s, I was taught to view world affairs through three windows, labelled military, economic and political. Let us glance at the EU thus.

On the military aspect, will the 27 go forward with their European army? That has not found favour with any Administration in this country but it has been discussed, and championed, again recently in Brussels. How might that impact on NATO, our security and our military relations with the EU countries?

Economically—my second window—attractive as the European currency is, there are enormous difficulties with the concept of one size fits all; for example, in Greece. The underlying problems are unresolved and a fix for the resulting strains is a known unknown. Will it impact before Article 50 negotiations end?

On migration, there is less press coverage this year than last, but it—and the root causes of the crisis—are unresolved. Turkey may renege on its undertaking to take back illegal immigrants. Alongside that, high numbers of unemployed youth—for example, in Italy and Spain—also makes for potential unrest. The EU of today will not be the same economically in two or five years’ time.

My third window—political—is the most important. At one extreme is the “ever closer union” mantra; will it make progress in the immediate future? More immediate are the possible changes in the faces of the 27 at future EU summits. The known is that national elections in EU countries will bring new faces and maybe changes to the collective view of the 27. An unknown: might it not be 27 any longer if another country were to follow the UK into the “out” lobby?

Therefore is the EU of 27 as solid or predictable as is assumed? All empires throughout history rise, then fall. The European “empire” will one day have to tread a similar path—maybe, but probably not yet. To borrow Zhou Enlai’s comment, speaking of events that took place two centuries previously, “It is too early to say”. But will tomorrow’s historians be idle for all of two centuries before writing the definitive tale of the European project? I, for one, doubt it. I hope that my glances through these three windows will not mean I totally fluff my EU exam paper. Whatever happens on continental Europe needs greater debate and consideration.