Lord Bowness
Main Page: Lord Bowness (Crossbench - Life peer)
Lord Bowness (Con)
My Lords, I thank my noble friend for asking this Question. The Government did work on the economic consequences of exiting the European Union, and that was published before the referendum. However, little good use was made of it in the campaign, the parties instead preferring exaggeration and rhetoric.
The question now is about no transition. “No transition” means either a deal that has been agreed by the end of March 2019, ready for immediate implementation—and there is no one who considers that possible—or we leave via the cliff edge like lemmings, save that lemmings appear to be agreed on their hopeless course of action, while in our case many will be carried over, dragged by the crowd against our wishes.
The Question refers to transition, but at present no deal also remains a possibility at the end of transition. It is therefore time to face reality and abandon that rhetoric. The leavers’ simplistic cry that we fall back on WTO rules must be exposed. They say that WTO rules govern the majority of trade with the rest of the world and that, therefore, it is no problem to apply the same system to goods to and from the European Union. The Freight Transport Association commented in the Sunday Times that the nature of much of our trade with the EU is physically different. Some 70% of it is by lorry, unlike from the rest of the world, which is in bulk, by container. Containers have time at sea to deal with customs formalities. The same considerations of speed do not apply to them. European Union trade consists of many and frequent loads, all of which require customs formalities, creating cost and delay, and not just regulation but infrastructure, too.
Concerns exist in many businesses and industries, and they are not agents of remain. These concerns include worries about rules of origin, the maintenance of existing regulatory regimes and agencies and the delay and cost if we become a third country. The Government therefore need to assess not merely “no transition”, but “no deal”. There has to be a transition to something, and what that is is not clear, if indeed anyone knows. Transition merely puts off the realities until later. It becomes clearer by the day that no dynamic, creative and unique economic partnership will give the UK arrangements better than we currently enjoy. Anything post exit will be a compromise.
If business and, therefore, the country is not to face economic problems—and the revised figures from the ONS last week suggest that the picture might not be as rosy as we hoped—surely we should think again about our rejection of continued membership of the single market and the customs union and give more consideration to EFTA and EEA-type arrangements. How much are we prepared to sacrifice to keep the commitment to reject any jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which colours our judgment and is having an effect on many issues, including citizens’ rights and the Irish border?
Parliament and people need an honest and comprehensive assessment of the cost of no deal, not just in terms of trade and tariffs, but all the additional costs to business, individuals and government.