Lord Bishop of Coventry
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The Lord Bishop of Coventry
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their current assessment of the prospects for a political solution to the civil war in Syria.
The Lord Bishop of Coventry
My Lords, today’s short debate enables us to return to the prospects of a political solution to Syria’s catastrophic civil war—a civil war which now represents the world’s greatest humanitarian disaster and most dangerous geopolitical hotspot. The timing of this debate could not be more critical because, thankfully, we are now seeing tentative steps towards a cessation of hostilities in Syria and fragile efforts to resume face-to-face negotiations. The coming days and weeks will be difficult but when set against five years of utter desolation and destruction, these signs of hope represent an opportunity that must not be missed.
The tragic costs of this conflict are well known: 400,000 dead, at least 10 million displaced and more than 13.5 million in need of humanitarian aid. The contagion of Syria’s war extends beyond its borders. We see this in the destabilisation of Lebanon and Jordan, in the growing pressure on Turkey’s already tenuous democracy, in the threat of a wider conflict between NATO and Russia, and in the exacerbated tensions between Sunni and Shia majority countries across the region. Without peace, worse will come.
I have looked into the eyes of Syrian refugees who have come to my city of Coventry and in them I have seen something of the suffering they have experienced. There are those among those refugees who have lost hope for their beloved country. Next week, on the fifth anniversary of the beginning of this horrific war, I am visiting Iraqi Kurdistan to see some of Christian Aid’s work among the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees who have found shelter among the Kurds. They, too, I am told, are rapidly losing hope. What is the real hope that we can hold out to refugees in Coventry, Cologne, Irbil and Beirut?
Noble Lords will be familiar with the story of Coventry Cathedral, emerging as it did out of the horrors of the Second World War. The House may be less familiar with Coventry’s ongoing work for peace and reconciliation today and its grass-roots community reconciliation projects in Nigeria, Iraq and elsewhere. It is all too clear from this work and from other engagements with conflict that other Members of your Lordships’ House will have had that the civil war in Syria takes its place in a wider picture of civil war in human history. Of course, we must study every war on its own terms but there is now a body of knowledge on what drives and what resolves such conflicts.
Four lessons stand out. First, negotiation does not work if either side thinks it can win outright. It also does not work if either side is unable or unwilling to act on its promises. Secondly, external supplies of arms do not help bring peace; they only promote and prolong the conflict. You give weapons to one side to help it win, not to help it make concessions. Thirdly, proxy wars result in stalemate. Civil wars where outsiders are involved on both sides are deadlier and more difficult to resolve. Fourthly, civil war leaves legacies of betrayal and hatred that require patient processes of reconciliation upon which societal stability and lasting peace depend.
Seen from this perspective, we are still a long way away from a reliable political settlement in Syria. Every side recognises that military solutions are no solution, yet all sides are betrayed by their actions. Everyone continues to jockey for position on the battlefield to secure a diplomatic advantage. If this continues or even worsens, with Turkey and Saudi Arabia becoming more involved, the Syrian people will surely come to see any political process as nothing more than a cruel façade.
Yet the ceasefire agreement offers the beginning of hope, with its provisions for a cessation of hostilities, humanitarian access and advancing political transition. As the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said just two weeks ago, it represents “our best chance” to end the violence in Syria. Secretary Kerry put it more starkly and called it our last chance. Yes, there have been ceasefire violations, and, no, the violence has not stopped, but it has been reduced. There are innocent civilians alive today who would otherwise be dead, and the agreement has given hope to those on the ground that an end to the violence is possible.
However, surely we can be more ambitious in the pursuit of peace. Too much of Syria remains an active conflict zone. What scope is there to bring different groups, whether officially or not, under the umbrella of the agreement? Is there not more that can be done here to agree with Russia the specific geographical contours of the agreement and to restrict Russian, and Turkish, latitude for military action? Are UK-Russia relations at such a low ebb that we have no influence in Moscow? Looking further down the line, to the long-term rebuilding of peaceable relationships between those who have fought each other, what work is being done to identify those people and organisations of peace in Syrian civil society who are already engaged in the work of reconciliation, among them some notable religious leaders? I would be grateful for the Minister’s thoughts on all these matters.
The vital importance of providing humanitarian aid to Syria cannot be doubted. We all welcome and applaud the UK’s efforts to date, especially the recent donor conference. In that spirit, a key part of the agreement was that, at the start of the ceasefire, aid would be delivered rapidly, safely and unhindered to areas in need. However, save for a few small deliveries by the UN, the vast majority of those going hungry have by all accounts seen nothing. In Darayya, one of worst-hit suburbs of Damascus, many remain on the edge of starvation. In other towns, access to medicines and other necessities remains poor. How can we build on the commitment to a ceasefire and widen its scope to meet these urgent human needs? How might we extend the agreement to prevent the looming humanitarian disaster in Aleppo?
Advancing a political transition in Syria is fraught with difficulty. Western Governments, including our own, have rightly accepted that sudden and violent regime change in Damascus cannot be made into the condition for peace, but we have yet to see a corresponding shift in the narrative over Assad’s future. We need to accept that there is no viable opposition Government-in-waiting in Syria and little prospect of creating a unitary Government out of the myriad opposition groups. Other ways of resolving this impasse must be found. Could Her Majesty’s Government instead explore ideas for gradually devolving political power in Syria, both from Assad to a newly formed Government and from Damascus to the regions? A devolved approach would not be without its difficulties of course, but it would help to protect civilians, open the door to aid and de-escalate the conflict before it reaches new heights. It would re-empower local communities while maintaining the country’s territorial integrity.
There are no ideal policy options in Syria and no easy answers. None the less, we must surely now focus on the security and safety of Syria’s people. This must be our priority, over and above geopolitical gain or the victory of any side in an unwinnable war. Whatever the shortcomings of the existing diplomatic track—there are many—it needs dedicated support and resourcing. Even if timetables slip, it is vital that progress is made, securing local ceasefires that could open the door to essential aid. If we do not act now, worse will follow. If we do not act now, it may be too late to act at all. I look forward to hearing from noble Lords as to how we might assist the Government in these efforts and rekindle hope for Syria’s people.