Economy: Update

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Tuesday 28th April 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

My Lords, I do not have that figure as I do not believe that that calculation has been made yet. It will depend very much on the timing and speed of exiting lockdown. The sooner we can exit, the less damage will be done, but we must balance against that the Prime Minister’s overriding concern for the health of the nation, not overwhelming the NHS and the nation’s morale if we were to get a bad second spike of the disease. It is a bit too early, but we will of course keep noble Lords informed of our thinking as it develops.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I am sure the Minister is aware that Germany, as part of its bazooka €1.1 trillion package, is guaranteeing 100% of loans of up to €500,000 to its small and medium-sized companies and of up to €800,000 for those with up to 250 employees. The Swiss have given out 98,000 loans—six times more than the UK, and their economy is one-eighth the size of ours. They guarantee 100% up to 500,000 Swiss francs, delivered within 24 hours. As the Minister just told us, we have granted 20,000 loans under the CBILS, totalling £3.3 billion out of £330 billion. I reiterate what the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, said; we are really grateful to the Chancellor for what he is doing, acting so swiftly six weeks ago with the vast range of programmes which now include the bounce-back loans. However, does the Minister agree that we desperately need our own 100% guaranteed CBILS loans up to £500,000? Yes, some checks would have to be made, but the Chancellor said in the Statement that he does not agree with that because he thinks the ordinary taxpayer should not bear the entire risk. However, surely it is better to do this now, to have companies existing and surviving now, rather than not having them and having instead the unemployment that will be created. We need to go from bounce-back to bazooka.

[Lord Agnew of Oulton]

I take on board the noble Lord’s point. Comparisons with other countries need to be done carefully so that one is comparing apples with apples. For example, the Swiss have not used a number of the other levers of support that we have used; this has been their main lever. Also, their furlough scheme requires employers to contribute one-fifth of the payments to the scheme, whereas in our country the furlough scheme removes that burden from businesses. In terms of the macro position, as I mentioned earlier, the Chancellor has announced support of up to 15% of GDP, which is a colossal sum of money, and he continues to be open-minded, which he demonstrated yesterday with the bounce-back loans, as to what further help the economy might need.