NHS Winter Pressures

Lord Allan of Hallam Excerpts

Tuesday 10th January 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Allan of Hallam (LD)]

My Lords, we welcome the fact that the Government are making a Statement, as it is abundantly clear to everyone that we have a crisis on our hands, and we on these Benches have been calling for this to be recognised as a national major incident. In that context, will the Minister clarify the status of the NHS recovery forum that was announced with great fanfare last week? Was it a one-off, or will it be meeting regularly and taking ownership of this crisis? If it is not the NHS recovery forum, what group within government will be taking us through the rest of the winter? This requires daily, serious leadership at the highest levels in government.

I have three questions on the specific measures outlined in the Statement. First, the Government have told us about the block-booking of care home beds, which should provide some immediate relief for hospitals, but they are much less clear on how they plan to increase domiciliary care so that people who can and should be in their own homes do not get stuck in care homes unnecessarily. The last thing we want to do is to move people out of one inappropriate care setting into another one, and domiciliary care remains the key to providing the best care for the vast majority of people who need neither hospital nor permanent care home residency. Can the Minister offer us any assurances on what the Government intend to do about domiciliary care provision?

Secondly, the Statement referred to the new NHS system control centres that will be in each integrated care board area, and which are a welcome development. There is published information about the data that will go into these new centres, but no information about what the centres themselves will make available to the public. Does the Minister agree that it would be helpful for people to know much more about the pressures on the NHS in their local area through these NHS system control centres publishing regular updates with as much information as they can provide to help patients make informed choices, with full knowledge of where the blockages are in the system?

Finally, the Statement referred to the use of artificial intelligence systems to help release patients sooner and track their progress through hospitals. There have been recent press reports about Welsh hospitals using tools developed by a British company called Faculty AI to improve patient discharges. Can the Minister add any insights into how these and similar technologies are going to be tested and deployed in England? I know that nothing is a silver bullet, but the reports suggest that they could make a significant difference to discharging people more efficiently and quickly. If that is so, we do not need to wait to deploy these technologies, and should be getting on with it.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Markham) (Con)]

My Lords, I thank noble Lords for their comments. As I mentioned in answering the previous Question, this is a reflection, from our part, of trying to understand the situation. We did some plans in October and looked at demand and supply, and that led us to make the announcements about the 7,000 extra beds and the £500 million adult social care discharge fund. It was clear to us that the bed occupancy issue was going to be at those danger points, and that was the plan.

Then, of course, as with any plan, you amend and review it all the time. Over the last few weeks of December, with the onset of flu beforehand, it became clear that we had higher levels of bed occupancy than we had planned for at that time because we had 7,000 or so extra beds taken up by flu while, at the same time, still requiring higher levels of Covid care than planned. It became clear from all this that the bed occupancy levels were still too high to be comfortable. This was causing the knock-on impact on the flow across the whole system, backing right up into the A&E wait times. That is why, very responsibly, we looked at the latest data, planned, and realised that we needed to do more. That was very much the components of the plan.

In answer to the point from the noble Baroness, Lady Merron, some of those short-term measures were about bringing in extra adult social care funding packages and, candidly, looking within every area of our budgets at what we really needed to spend over the rest of the year and at what we could prioritise. We managed to make some in-year savings through reducing headcount, particularly in admin and central areas, and then looked to redeploy that to make sure it was going to the front line.

As well as that, we looked at things such as the expandable modular space. This goes back to the flight control systems, which I would recommend to anyone. It is well worth a visit to Maidstone, where you will see what we plan for the longer term and what we are looking to do across the system in time for next winter. It became very clear there that, because it has the data, it can manage demand and supply. It sees the incoming from the ambulances; it sees the bed situation; it sees those people who are getting close to be ready for discharge. It is working with clinicians to say, “Actually, we’ve got some incoming and we need to free up that space. Let’s get the social care places ready. Let’s have transport ready and clean the bed quickly.” It is absolutely those micro-improvements and the Team Sky cycling-type approach that address it. AI comes in very much as part of that; you can speed up the flow all the time. It is not silver bullet stuff, but it is about looking at those micro-improvements as you go through it. That is very much the background to all this.

Dom care is an important aspect of that as well. I went through the stats with the team today, which said that of the 13,000 people ready for discharge, probably only 3% should require social care in the long term, and the other 97% should be in a home environment. Some of them might need a few weeks, which is where those care packages come in, and a lot of them need dom care, but 97% of them should not be in care going forward. That is why we need to focus these things towards that. That is the thinking behind this.

The modular space is an important component of this. Look at Maidstone again; it has looked very carefully at the patient flows and at where you can have same-day emergency care and get people out again so that they never have to go into a hospital. But you need extra space to do that. We have made this available so that the hospitals can decide where they most need that expandable space—whether it is pre-A&E, when they are finished in A&E and waiting in a decent space for a bed to come free, or step-down or discharge areas. It is about providing that flexibility and putting it in place quickly for them all.

What we were trying to do here was show flexibility and be fleet of foot to be able to course correct as time goes on; to put our hands up and notice when things were difficult and more challenging because bed occupancy was higher than expected—as I say, due to flu, Covid and other factors—and put in the measures to address them. That is exactly what we are doing in the short term.

In the longer term, next year—not that many people would say that nine or 10 months away is the longer term—we need to make sure that adult social care has further funding, as the House has heard me say many times. There will be a substantial increase next year, up to £1.7 billion, and a substantial increase the year after, of up to 20%. With flight control systems, expandable modular care and the rollout of virtual wards, we have a number of things that, on their own, are not a silver bullet, but, by putting them all together, you will start to get the changes and improvements that we expect to see. I say unashamedly that, if there are other facilities in the independent sector that we can make use of, be it making more use of pharmacies or expanding virtual wards, then we should do so.

I am sure there will be more questions as we go on in this debate, but I hope your Lordships can see that we have tried to respond to the challenges through a range of measures that we believe will make a difference. At the same time, we must be open to the need to do more; we will need to add more things and course correct as time goes on.