Economy Update

Debate between Lord Agnew of Oulton and Lord Hamilton of Epsom

Tuesday 10th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Agnew of Oulton (Con)]

The noble Lord raises a number of questions. Perhaps I may reassure him that the Government are in constant dialogue with business at all levels. He is right that we face some uncertainty on 1 January with the emerging exit from the transition period. It will certainly be helpful if we can get some kind of clarity within the next couple of weeks. However, he should also understand that, whether we get a deal or not, we are leaving on 1 January and we will be out of the customs union. The only real difference for businesses will be the tariff structures that exist and their preparedness for that. We are doing an enormous amount of work to support businesses in being ready for that, including work at the ports and inland sites to ensure that the disruption that the noble Lord is concerned about is minimised.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con) [V]]

My Lords, are my noble friend Lord Robathan and I alone in worrying about the accumulated national debt? How much will this furlough scheme cost if it lasts until the end of March? By how much will the national debt increase as a percentage of GDP, and at what stage does the national debt as a percentage of GDP become unsustainable? Let us face it, this lockdown may not even be necessary, based as it was on bogus statistics, and imposed at a time when the incidence of coronavirus was decreasing both in hospitals and in the numbers of people being infected.

[Lord Agnew of Oulton (Con)]

My noble friend asks about the cost of this current extension of furlough. I am not able to give him the answer to that yet simply because we do not know how many firms and employees will take advantage of it over the next few months. During the last lockdown we saw a very dramatic reduction in the numbers claiming each month as the economy opened up again. We have built in the flexibilities that we did not include initially in the first lockdown so that employees and employers can work as flexibly as possible to protect both businesses and their employees. I share my noble friend’s concern about the overall costs of this and the risk to our balance sheet.

Covid-19: Economy Update

Debate between Lord Agnew of Oulton and Lord Hamilton of Epsom

Tuesday 27th October 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con) [V]]

My Lords, on the “Today” programme this morning, my right honourable friend Nadhim Zahawi said that the Government had to strike a balance between combating the virus and damaging the economy. In the light of those remarks, have the Government ever carried out a cost-benefit analysis before taking these quite dramatic decisions on lockdown, both nationally and regionally?

[Lord Agnew of Oulton (Con)]

I am not aware of an analysis of this kind. We have to be realistic. It is easy for people sitting in a dark room with spreadsheets to say how many deaths we are prepared to accept for the balance of the economy. Frankly, it is extremely difficult. So far, we have had more deaths than other European countries, which has brought us a great deal of criticism. It is extremely difficult to balance lives against livelihoods. I might have a completely different view from that of Members opposite. We have to try to strike what we consider to be a reasonable balance—protecting lives where we can, but also protecting livelihoods.