Covid-19: R Rate and Lockdown Measures

Jonathan Ashworth Excerpts

Monday 8th June 2020 Commons Chamber

[Jonathan Ashworth (Leicester South) (Lab/Co-op)]

(Urgent Question): To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care to make a statement on the R value and lockdown.

[The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care (Matt Hancock)]

Thank you, Mr Speaker, for this opportunity to update the House on progress on our plans for controlling coronavirus.

Thanks to the immense national effort on social distancing, as a country we have made real progress in reducing the number of new infections. As we move out of lockdown, we look at all indicators to assess progress in tackling the virus. Last week’s Office for National Statistics infection survey estimated that the number of people who have had coronavirus in England fell from 139,000 between 3 and 16 May to 53,000 between 17 and 30 May—a drop of over half. In terms of new cases, an ONS estimate released on Friday shows that there are now around 5,600 new cases each day within the community in England: a huge drop since the peak.

The number of new fatalities each day is, thankfully, falling too. Today’s figures record 55 fatalities, the lowest number since 21 March, before lockdown began. They also show that there were no deaths recorded in London hospitals. That is a real milestone for the capital, which, of course, in the early stages of the pandemic, faced the biggest peak. Yesterday, we saw no recorded deaths in Scotland, which is very positive news for us all. Sadly, we expect more fatalities in the future, not least because the figures recorded at the weekend are typically lower. What is more, Mr Speaker, 55 deaths is still 55 too many and hundreds of people are still fighting for their lives. Each death brings just as much sadness as when the figure was much higher in the peak. I know that the thoughts of the whole House are with those families and communities who are grieving for their loved ones.

We, of course, also look at the R rate. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies confirmed on Friday that its estimates, taking into account 10 different models, are that R remains between 0.7 to 0.9, and that it is below 1 in every region of the country. That means the number of new infections is expected to continue to fall. So there are encouraging trends on all critical measures. Coronavirus is in retreat across the land. Our plan is working and those downward trends mean that we can proceed with our plans, but we do so putting caution and safety first.

Even at the peak of the pandemic, we protected the NHS and ensured that it was not overwhelmed. We will not allow a second peak that overwhelms the NHS. We are bearing down on the virus in our communities, aided by our new NHS test and trace system, which is growing every day. We are bearing down on the virus in our communities, aided by our new NHS test and trace system, which is growing every day. We are bearing down on infections in our hospitals, including through the new measures to tackle nosocomial infection, such as face masks for visitors, patients and staff. Finally, we are strengthening protections for our care homes, including by getting tests to all elderly care home residents and staff.

I am glad to be able to tell the House that David Pearson, the eminent social care expert who has previously led the social care body ADASS—the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services—and has decades of experience of leadership in both social care and public health, will be chairing our new social care taskforce to drive our covid action plan yet further. David has an impressive track record and I am delighted that he will be supporting us in leading this important work. Together, we are getting this virus under control and now more than ever we must not lose our resolve.

[Jonathan Ashworth]

I note what has just been said about the social care taskforce, but may I say that it probably should have been set up some months ago? The Government are easing restrictions, but even when looking at their own tests we know that PPE supplies are still not secured—dentists are warning about PPE today; that tracing is still not fully operational—the chief operating officer of test and trace has warned that it will not be fully operational until September; that testing is still not sufficient—we are still not routinely testing all NHS staff, whether asymptomatic or not, even though we know that such testing will arrest the spread of the virus in hospitals; and that the R value, according to the PHE Cambridge model, is close to 1 in many regions and is at or above 1 in the north-west and the south-west. The modellers of that model warn that that may result in the

“the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June.”

The British people have shown great resilience and fortitude in observing this lockdown and helping to slow the spread of this deadly, horrific virus, but we have still had more than 40,000 deaths. As the Secretary of State said, infections are still running at more than 5,000 a day. We should proceed with caution, but many now fear that the Prime Minister is starting to throw caution to the wind. I therefore wish to put some specific requests to the Secretary of State: will he agree to start publishing, on a weekly basis, the regional R value estimate, alongside the national estimates? Does he agree that the voices of regions must be heard in future decisions about lockdown? Will he start including the various metro Mayors, such as Andy Burnham, in the covid Cobra meetings? Will the Secretary of State ensure, this week, that local authorities and general practitioners start receiving specific data about who has tested positive so that they can start putting in place area-based responses? Will he issue, this week, written guidance on defining what a “local lockdown” is, how it will be enforced and what resources and powers local authorities and agencies will be able to draw upon?

Finally, we know that the more deprived an area is, the higher the covid mortality level. There are pockets of deep deprivation in the north-west and in the south-west, such as in parts of Cornwall. What financial support will be given to those who are asked to isolate? Given that we also know that black, Asian and minority ethnic people are more at risk from covid, will he now publish the PHE report on disparities in full—all the chapters, all the analysis, all the recommendations—because action to protect BAME people, especially BAME health and care staff, must be an urgent priority?