Taxes

Debate between John Slinger and Graham Stuart

Tuesday 15th July 2025 Commons Chamber

[Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to take part in this debate. It is worth reminding the House of the situation in July last year: we had the fastest growth in the G7; employment was 4 million higher than in 2010, with up to 33 million people in employment; inflation was on target, at around 2%; and the UK, between 2010 and 2024, had grown faster than Germany, France, Japan and Italy. That was the legacy of Conservative stewardship.

I have asked Labour Members to give a more rounded picture, but sadly they almost always refuse to do so. Debt to GDP had gone up significantly, partly because of the massive deficit that we inherited in 2010, at more than 10% of GDP—that was phenomenal and had to be brought down over time—and partly because of covid and Ukraine, when we intervened to pay half of everyone’s energy bills. That is a more rounded picture. Overall, we managed to come out with people helped through covid and through the energy crisis, and with remarkably high levels of employment. Yet just a year later, under this Chancellor’s watch, that strong foundation has crumbled.

The Labour party needed to recognise that the economy was recovering and to let it grow. Instead, by coming in and being held by the manifesto commitments not to put up the main taxes on the one hand, and on the other, thinking that they were being clever and somehow keeping to their pledges by imposing national insurance rises on business but not individuals, that had the most bizarre and perverse effect.

The £25 billion hit on the economy created by the jobs tax comes down to about £16 billion after behaviour change, according to the OBR. Then, after compensation for the public sector, it comes down to about £11 million. Then, people have had to scrabble around for hospices, GPs and so on, which means the net is probably about £10 million, and that is before the depressing impact on the overall economy, meaning it almost certainly comes to single-figure billions. But guess what the OBR also says: from next year, 76% of the impact of the £25 billion hit comes out of ordinary people’s wages. That is the situation.

The Government have imposed a tax of £19 billion on ordinary people’s earnings in order to generate less than £10 billion of tax revenue. That is utterly insane, and I ask Members on the Government Back Benches to have a look at that, follow it and come back. I would love to hear that those numbers are wrong, because I would love to hear that we are not doing something as suicidal, crazy and damaging as it appears to be.

I wish I could drink the Kool-Aid, like the hon. Member for Rugby (John Slinger). The funniest thing about him—a man for whom I have a great deal of respect and affection—is that, unlike some of his colleagues who spout this stuff, he gives every impression, which I believe, that he believes it himself. That is what is truly extraordinary.

[John Slinger]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for allowing me to intervene. I am certainly not drinking Kool-Aid. I do believe what I say, and I believe it firmly. I respect the right hon. Gentleman as a colleague, even though he is from a different party, but there is no Kool-Aid for me.

[Graham Stuart]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for that.

The economy has contracted for two consecutive months, shrinking by 0.3% in April and 0.1% in May, in a textbook sign that we are in, or could be headed into, recession. Employment is down too, with Office for National Statistics data showing that payroll jobs have fallen by more than 100,000 in a single month, with around 274,000 fewer jobs compared with last year and unemployment climbing to 4.6%.

Following the excellent speech from my right hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen), I would just say that we should look at the big picture. Again, I appeal to colleagues on the Labour Benches. There was a magnificent victory for Labour last year in the election, with 400-plus MPs elected, and it really is up to Labour Members to recognise just how scary a position we are in. We have debt to GDP at about 100% and we have a world in which the fastest growth is to be found in developing states, some of which are quite hostile to us and to our values.

The truth is that no rich, powerful country has a divine right to stay that way. Wealth does not just come down from the heavens. Even in the 14 years when we were in government, too often in this place we seemed to obsess only on how we would spend money. From the moment we got up in the morning to the time we went to bed at night, we would talk about how we would spend the money, but we have to generate it first. It does not matter whether our No. 1 concern is the alleviation of poverty, the defence of the nation, education or the health service—we have to have a strong economy.

That is why the Government were right. One of the reasons they got that majority may be because they said that their No. 1 mission was economic growth. Remember that? It does not come through in the speeches from Labour Members now. Their No. 1 mission was economic growth. We should be sweating in Select Committees, in all-party groups, on the Floor of this House and in Westminster Hall over how we deliver that economic growth, so that we are not going backwards but are actually growing the economy.

We also have to accept something that is going to be tough for Labour Members, most of whom have not had any private sector experience and who tend to believe that the rich are just there to take money off and wealth creators can be endlessly offered haircuts and will just put up with it and if they do not, it shows some moral flaw on their part. We have to accept that the art of government is to recognise the realities, to align the incentives of actors—in this case in the economy—with the public goods we want to see. After a year, there are so many flashing red lights and warning signs that the Government are not getting that right, so they need to be prepared to think again.

I was involved after that omnishambles Budget of 2012, when I was part of helping the then Chancellor see his route to a better path forward, and my experience tells me that Labour Members must recognise that the country is potentially in a really serious, parlous position. We have no divine right to be a wealthy, powerful nation. The next four years are important. I hope and expect that there will be a Conservative Government after that, but whatever happens, the next four years are important and I hope that Labour Members will start to give rather more nuanced and thoughtful speeches in order to influence the Front Bench.

Public Finances: Borrowing Costs

Debate between John Slinger and Graham Stuart

Thursday 9th January 2025 Commons Chamber

[John Slinger (Rugby) (Lab)]

On the economy, as with so much else, does my right hon. Friend agree that Conservative Members should sip from the elixir of personal responsibility and that the two words we most need to hear from them are, “We apologise”?

[Graham Stuart]

That’s not a question.