Charter for Budget Responsibility

Debate between Guy Opperman and Mark Reckless

Tuesday 13th January 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood) (UKIP)]

Her Majesty’s Opposition bear a heavy responsibility, because they set the dividing line in this debate. They chose to attack the coalition Government for cutting too far, too fast and to set up the Chancellor as if he were the author of austerity. The reality is four years—it is coming up to five years—of fiscal incontinence and a borrowing binge greater than any this country has seen in peacetime. In the run-up to the last election, a number of Conservative voices drew attention to the Labour Government having borrowed in three or four years more than the country had borrowed in the previous 300. Since then, however, the coalition Government have borrowed even more.

Both Labour and the Conservatives seek to reduce our deficit with at least one hand tied behind their back. Their excuse is crisis in the eurozone, yet they failed to explain, despite the claims, particularly from Conservative Members, that the economy is supposedly doing so well, why we are borrowing so much. Why are we borrowing so much more than France, Italy, Spain and Greece? The answer is that the Government have failed to keep their promise to deal with the deficit, let alone to pay down our debts. They have tied their hands behind their back in the way that every other party in the Chamber has, except my own. There is a consensus commitment across the House—it is not in the country and it is not shared by my party—to spend between £10 billion and £20 billion each year on a budget contribution to the European Union, to spend a sum rising to £13 billion on a net transfer of overseas aid, and to spend a sum rising from £2.3 billion in 2012 to £9.8 billion in 2020, partly classified as spending, through the levy control framework. There is also the vow the party leaders made in Scotland to carry on the commitment to the Barnett formula for as far as the eye can see. With those spending commitments, the Government are enormously handicapped in reducing the deficit.

[Guy Opperman]

Given his policy on Europe, what would the hon. Gentleman say to my farmers in Northumberland? Is it his proposal that on withdrawal from Europe, there will be a reduction in support to the farmers?

[Mark Reckless]

The common agricultural policy operates with such fantastical inefficiency that there is enormous scope for treating farmers better while spending less money. The problem is that the Government and the country are spending money that we do not have. The problem is not just the level of the commitments I described, which my party does not endorse and would make savings from, but that the spending has been allocated on the basis of forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility. When this Parliament started, the OBR was essentially one man: Professor Sir Alan Budd. Instead of relying on the electoral mandate and authority of the Government—or the institutional ability of the Treasury, as the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe (Mr Clarke) did—the Chancellor based his whole economic and fiscal strategy on the forecast of one man, Professor Sir Alan Budd.

The right hon. and learned Gentleman rightly said that GDP evolved in a way that was worse than almost anyone predicted, but he did not say that the OBR’s forecast was far more optimistic than that of most economists at the time. That forecast was made even more optimistic in October 2010, and we are paying the price for that. The Chancellor has come to realise that he needs to restrict benefits growth to 1% a year for at least two years—it is perhaps now three years or more—in the same way that public sector pay has been restricted, but back in 2010, 2011 and 2012, he raised benefits by inflation when at times it was more than 5% and wage growth was only 2%.

It is those fiscal commitments—to the EU, to overseas aid, to energy and to Scotland—combined with putting so much trust in the one individual and the three men and a dog in the OBR and its approach to economic forecasting that has led the country into this terrible fiscal position. The OBR forecasts that the fiscal position will go back into balance, with more than £20 billion of surplus in 2019-20, but that reduction in Government borrowing must be predicated on a combination of an increase in private sector borrowing and a reduction in the current account deficit.

The OBR tells us that there will be an explosion in household debt and at the same time a big fall in the current account deficit. It made that forecast on a risible analysis. It looks at what has happened to our investment balance. For 300 years, the country has earned its way through a surplus on investment income. That has disappeared because of the combination of the fiscal incontinence of both the Labour party and the Conservative party, which have borrowed such enormous amounts of money, and what the banking crisis has done to impair the quality and quantity of our net asset base. The OBR simply assumes that that investment income will magically come back. If it does not, things will be a lot worse. If we are to carry on giving 0.7% of GDP to overseas aid, £10 billion to £20 billion to the EU—perhaps 2% net of Government transfers—then unless the Government run a surplus to pay that, the private sector has to borrow more. These two parties have left us in a fiscal mess.