Public Health

Graham Brady Excerpts

Tuesday 6th October 2020 Commons Chamber

[Helen Whately]

I will just move on as I am conscious that I have taken quite a number of interventions—

[Sir Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale West) (Con)]

Not from me.

[Helen Whately]

Okay then.

[Sir Graham Brady]

I am very grateful to the Minister for giving way. We are three weeks in and we know that a different model is being applied in Scotland. At what point would she expect to be able to form a judgment as to whether the Scottish approach, excluding young children from the rule of six, is less effective, as effective, or more effective than that in England?

[Helen Whately]

I have a personal perspective, as I have a household of five and am therefore well aware that the rule of six can make socialising quite difficult for families. For instance, my own family now cannot get together either with both my parents or my husband’s parents. I very much appreciate the difficulty of this restriction, although the majority of households are slightly smaller and are not finding it as difficult as my own or other larger households. We are keeping this and all measures under review. The Government clearly do not want to introduce restrictions if we do not need to do so. What is crucial is that restrictions are effective, so we are looking at all the evidence, including where and how the virus is being transmitted—whether that is in households, in people’s own homes, through meeting up with other households or in hospitality settings—and we will continue to do so. But in answer to my hon. Friend’s question, I cannot give a date or a specific “This will be the moment at which it would happen.”

[Sir Graham Brady]

rose—

[Helen Whately]

I feel I have taken quite a number of interventions, so it is time that I moved on, if that is all right.

Let me talk through some further changes that have come into effect since the regulations were made. On 21 September, following the advice of the four chief medical officers, the UK’s covid alert level was raised from 3 to 4, which is the second most serious stage, meaning that transmission is high or rising exponentially. The Prime Minister outlined to Parliament on 22 September that we were at a “perilous turning point”, and needed to act to save lives, protect the NHS and the most vulnerable, and shelter the economy from far sterner and more costly measures that would inevitably become necessary.

As a result, further restrictions came into effect from 24 September. These included: rules on the closure of certain businesses selling food or drink between 10 pm and 5 am; measures to require hospitality venues to provide food and drink for consumption on the premises by table service only; the doubling of initial fines for individual breaches of the above measures; and new fines for businesses that do not adhere to the new requirements, starting at £1,000, up to a maximum of £10,000 for repeated breaches. The rules also change the exemptions to the six-person gathering limit to restrict attendance at wedding ceremonies, receptions and support groups to 15, and remove the exemption for stand-alone religious or belief-based lifecycle ceremonies and adult indoor sports apart from indoor disabled sports. We are working through the normal channels to schedule debates for these regulations as soon as possible.

I recognise that people have had to make significant sacrifices to suppress the first wave, and these restrictions are not measures that any Government would want to introduce, but the threat of the virus very much remains. With winter approaching, we must do whatever it takes to keep it under control and protect the NHS so that it can, in turn, look after us.

--- Later in debate ---

[Sir Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale West) (Con)]

The so-called rule of six, like the ban on household mingling in some parts of the country and, indeed, the original lockdown measures, was introduced under public health laws that were originally envisaged as a means of controlling the movement of infected people, not of whole populations and not for indefinite periods of time. The approach being taken is truly unprecedented. These rules are a massive intrusion into the liberty and private lives of the whole British people, and they are having a devastating economic effect, which will result in big job losses and masses of business failures.

The rule of six has only been in place for three weeks or so, but much of the country has been under additional restrictions for much longer. In Greater Manchester, for example, people have been banned from mixing with other households, including close family, since late July. It would be interesting to know what conclusions the Government have reached about the efficacy of these restrictions, given the 10 weeks of experience that we now have in those areas with greater restrictions.

Rates of positive testing in those areas have fluctuated over the summer months. In Trafford, rates were falling in July, when we were put into the additional restrictions, but rising a month later. After 10 weeks, the positive test figures in Trafford are roughly twice as high as they were in July. In the city of Manchester, the increase has been tenfold.

If I asked the Minister whether these restrictions are proving effective, I suspect that she would say, “But it might have been worse if we weren’t doing it.” If so, she needs to tell the House how long she would maintain a ban on household mingling or a rule of six in the event that test rates continued not to respond to the restrictions. Does she accept that there could be no exit from the policy?

Can the Minister share with the House her estimate of the efficacy of a rule of six, compared with that of a rule of eight, had that been introduced instead? Is a rule of six more or less effective than a ban on household mixing? What assessment have the Government made of the efficacy of the rule of six in England, and in Scotland and Wales, where young children are excluded from it? The Minister did not answer that question when I intervened earlier, and she would not say when such an assessment would be made, but it is a very important point. I would have thought that by the time a month has elapsed, it should be possible to see which is working better or whether they are interchangeable.

For the state to direct people whether or when they can see their families in their own homes or gardens is an extreme intervention, and this House should set the highest bar possible before approving it. If such an intrusion into people’s lives can be justified, Ministers need to be able to demonstrate that it works, they need to be able to reassure people that it will be temporary, and they need to set out the criteria under which the restrictions will be lifted. I hope the Minister will answer those questions today.