(2 weeks, 5 days ago)
Commons ChamberIf the hon. Gentleman will just listen to my speech and the examples that I am about to give with an open mind, he might change his mind.
The Treasury does not include in its figures the impact of business property relief claims; that also fits under the same £1 million ceiling. According to the NFU, 40% of farmers also claim BPR on machinery and livestock, which makes the £1 million ceiling even more restrictive. As shown in an earlier exchange, the Government have failed to complete a proper impact assessment of the changes to APR and BPR on the rural economy. The hon. Member for Rossendale and Darwen (Andy MacNae) might be interested to hear that the CLA modelling has shown that the changes will lead to 5% of rural businesses closing, with up to 190,000 jobs lost from the rural economy, some in very remote areas, and it will be difficult to replace them.
I do not want to give way to too many people, but I will to the hon. Gentleman.
The hon. Gentleman mentions 5% of agricultural businesses being at risk. Is it not true that under the last Government, between 2019 and 2024, there was an 8% reduction in agricultural businesses in his constituency of North Cotswolds, thanks to the policies of his party when they were in government?
That was over a much longer period, but these changes will take effect much quicker. I can assure the hon. Gentleman that once the tax starts to bite, those jobs will be lost quite quickly. To put that into perspective, the OBR has predicted that only £590 million a year is due to be raised from this destructive policy. This Budget gave the Department for Work and Pensions a whopping £275.8 billion a year. The revenue raised from this tax would be a mere 0.2% of that total amount.
Over the past few weeks, I have had countless emails from worried farmers about their future, and I was lucky enough to meet some of them when they came up to London to protest recently. They varied in age from their late 20s to their early 90s, and it was a valuable meeting. Many had never protested in their lives, but they have chosen to use their voices now when their livelihoods are under threat. Again, to avoid press intrusion, I want to cite the case of David and his younger son, whose farm in the North Cotswolds has 265 acres, a suckler herd of 200 and a small flock of pedigree poll Dorset sheep. They have a range of modern and traditional buildings and have already diversified those. When they include their house, they estimate that their business is worth £5.5 million. David would be entitled to about £1.5 million in relief, and after the 50% relief from inheritance tax, with an effective rate that the Exchequer Secretary went through, that would leave him with a taxable amount of £800,000 on his death. The Minister might like to listen to this: that farmer only earns in total, on average, about £40,000 a year. How on earth is he expected to pay the tax and live on that £40,000? He will not. The farmer will have to sell up and the farm will not be available to future generations.