Iran

Debate between Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Brian Binley

Monday 20th February 2012 Commons Chamber

[Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

I felt like intervening on the right hon. Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds) to give him a fourth minute of extra time, but I restrained myself. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) on securing the debate, but that is as far as I can go, because I disagree with almost every word he said. I strongly agree with my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Kensington (Sir Malcolm Rifkind), who moved the amendment. We need to be very careful about how the tone of the debate comes across and ensure that it is not bellicose. I agree with almost everything he said, with one exception: I think that any military intervention in Iran would not be a short-term matter and would become a longer-term matter, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex (Nicholas Soames), who is no longer in his seat, made clear.

Having said that, the Iranians—the Persians—are a proud nation with a very ancient history. They have a very educated middle class, and I doubt very much that they approve of what the Iranian leadership is doing. Nevertheless, they do have such a leadership. There will be elections on 22 March for the legislative assembly and next year for the presidency. As has been said, President Ahmadinejad cannot stand again, so there will inevitably be a change of regime. As we heard from the former Foreign Secretary, the right hon. Member for Blackburn (Mr Straw), a change of regime can bring about a change of policy, so we do not know what will follow in Iran when President Ahmadinejad retires. We do know that Iran has defied six UN Security Council resolutions. President Ahmadinejad recently said that he will secure an important nuclear achievement, and we know that he is trying to achieve the 20% threshold. I appreciate the semantics my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay used, but I am in no doubt that the regime is trying to acquire the capability to produce nuclear weapons. If it manages to acquire that capability, I am pretty certain that it will use it. I do not think that we disagree thus far.

I am sorry that the right hon. Member for Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Mr Llwyd) is no longer here, because in the debate in this House on 24 September 2002 on whether to go to war with Iraq I said that I doubted whether the dodgy dossier was true and whether there were any weapons of mass destruction. I went on to say that if we weakened Iraq we would have problems with Iran, and that is exactly what we are seeing today—Iranian interference in Iraq on a huge scale. It is trying to destabilise the schools, and I doubt whether President Maliki can do very much without authorisation from his Iranian paymasters.

[Mr Brian Binley (Northampton South) (Con)]

indicated assent.

[Geoffrey Clifton-Brown]

As my hon. Friend, who is often spot on, will know, Iraq is virtually a proxy state of Iran. That is a hugely important step for the world, because both countries combined have 19% of the world’s proven oil reserves, so instability in the region will lead to a real problem. That compares with a figure of about 7% in Kuwait and about 2% in the United Arab Emirates. To put it into context, the figure for the proven oil reserve in the hands of Iran and Iraq is very significant indeed.

The Iranian regime not only promotes instability and terror in its own country—the example was given of five executions only last night—but is one of the greatest exporters of terror around the world. I have always been a supporter of Israel, but I would shudder to live in Israel today, with Hezbollah from the Syrian state and Hamas from the Palestinian state. The Israelis are in a very difficult position. If war were to break out in Iran, I agree with my right hon. Friend the Member for Mid Sussex that the proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, would become even more active than they are at present.

I agreed with my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary when he said at the weekend that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons could trigger an arms race in the middle east. One or two Members have disputed that, but we should look at history and the example of Pakistan and India. The moment one got nuclear capability, the other had to have it. If Iran acquires a nuclear capability, Saudi Arabia will probably do so, the Syrian regime, if it survives, will certainly want to, and perhaps other states in the middle east will, too.