Gavin Shuker
Main Page: Gavin Shuker (Independent - Luton South)
Mr Willetts
My hon. Friend talks about how much they will be paying, but we should remember that no student will pay up front. What will be crucial in determining their repayments is their earnings, and because we have raised the threshold, their monthly repayments, regardless of the university fee, will actually be lower under our proposed system than under the system we inherited from the Labour Government.
Gavin Shuker (Luton South) (Lab/Co-op)
I noted the Minister’s answer to the question about the funding gap, but I have to say that I found it quite inadequate. Will he tell the House by how much he will have underestimated the cost to the UK taxpayer should universities choose to charge an average of, say, £8,000?
Mr Willetts
I will happily share with the House the arithmetic on which we have made an estimate, although nobody can know the exact figure. [Interruption.] I can tell the shadow Secretary of State exactly how it is done. We start by assuming that 350,000 students will apply to English universities in October 2012. We assume that 90% of them will take out a student loan, which is actually a rather higher proportion than do so at the moment—who knows whether it will be more or less than that? We assume an average loan, which is not the same as the fee—people may borrow less than the fee—of £7,500. Multiplying all that, we get approximately £2.4 billion of student loans. We are in an uncertain world, but if the hon. Gentleman is claiming, as the hon. Member for Sefton Central (Bill Esterson) did, that there will be £3.4 billion of student loans, I have to tell him that that is very, very unlikely.